Modelación del comportamiento de los precios del petróleo mediante modelos estocásticos
El petróleo se ha convertido en un gran protagonista en la economía global por ser el eje principal de la mayoría de industrias manufactureras y de transporte, afectando de manera significativa la dinámica de las economías de los países en donde su principal actividad económica se fundamenta en la e...
- Autores:
-
Jerez Barajas, Mayra Alejandra
- Tipo de recurso:
- http://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bcce
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2016
- Institución:
- Universidad Industrial de Santander
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio UIS
- Idioma:
- spa
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:noesis.uis.edu.co:20.500.14071/34743
- Palabra clave:
- Precios Del Petróleo
Modelos Estocásticos
Previsión
Arima
Gbm Y Simulación.
Oil has become one of the principal actor in the global economy as the main focus of most manufacturing industries and transport
affecting significantly the dynamics of the economies of the countries where its main economic activity is based on the oil exploitation and industrialization. The constant variability in the price of oil over the time
has generated the need in a scientific level to search or generate mathematical models to predict short and long term oil prices in a efficiently way. In this research we studied and analyzed the stochastic ARIMA models and Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) with possible mean reversion and Poisson jumps
in order to compare the effectiveness of each model when making a forecast. Simulations for different periods of time were made on the database in oil prices WTI and BRENT references. It has been concluded in this thesis that the stochastic process ARIMA implemented with an additional stochastic process (ARCH - GARCH) manages to generate a more efficient outcome than the Geometric Brownian Motion in terms of accuracy and volatility. 3
- Rights
- License
- Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)