Análisis de intervención de las políticas públicas sobre la evolución del índice de precios de la vivienda nueva en Colombia 2005-2015

Autores:

Cardenas Cancino, Mayra Alejandra
Sanjuanelo Amaya, Teresita

Tipo de recurso:

http://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bcce

Fecha de publicación:

2016

Institución:

Universidad Industrial de Santander

Repositorio:

Repositorio UIS

Idioma:

spa

Acceso en línea:: https://noesis.uis.edu.co/handle/20.500.14071/35403
https://noesis.uis.edu.co

Palabra clave:: Índice
Vivienda
Precio
Políticas Públicas
Intervención
Análisis.
The present work has the purpose of determining the impact of public policies (Construcción de 350 mil viviendas
Programa VIS y VIP
PIPE 1
0
Viviendas 100% Subsidiadas
Mi Casa Ya) on the evolution of the price index of the new housing in Colombia for the period between January 2005 and December 2015 through estimation models time series ARIMA with an intervention model following the Box and Tiao methodology. To achieve this objective
we conducted a study of the academic literature on the subject and followed a graphic and descriptive analysis of the series. Next
an ARIMA(1
1
1)(0
1
1)12 model was identified to carry out the intervention analysis
which showed that the five policies studied had an impact on the price index for new housing in Colombia. A forecast for 2016 was performed
which was compared with the actual data until July 2016. As a recommendation for the ending of this document
is suggested to do a similar study with the same housing policies but when they have completed their cycle
in order to measure the real impact of these on the price index of new housing in Colombia. tion
only three met the expected behavior according to economic theory.

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