Anuncios macroeconómicos y mercados Accionarios: El caso Latinoamericano
Do stock markets reflect changes on the macroeconomic fundamentals? . The semi-strong form of the Efficient market hypothesis (HEM - Fama 1970) asserts that stock prices should react immediately to the surprise content on announcements of macroeconomic variables, without predictable over or under re...
- Autores:
-
Agudelo, Diego A.
Gutierrez, Angelo
- Tipo de recurso:
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2011
- Institución:
- Universidad EAFIT
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio EAFIT
- Idioma:
- spa
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/666
- Acceso en línea:
- http://hdl.handle.net/10784/666
- Palabra clave:
- Stock markets
Macroeconomic announcements
Macroeconomics
Efficient Market Hypothesis
ARCH-GARCH Models
Time series models
Latin American stock markets
Mercados accionarios
Anuncios macroeconómicos
Macroeconomía
Eficiencia de mercado
Modelos ARCH-GARCH
Modelos de serie de tiempo
Mercados accionarios latinoamericanos
- Rights
- License
- Acceso abierto
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| dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
Anuncios macroeconómicos y mercados Accionarios: El caso Latinoamericano |
| title |
Anuncios macroeconómicos y mercados Accionarios: El caso Latinoamericano |
| spellingShingle |
Anuncios macroeconómicos y mercados Accionarios: El caso Latinoamericano Stock markets Macroeconomic announcements Macroeconomics Efficient Market Hypothesis ARCH-GARCH Models Time series models Latin American stock markets Mercados accionarios Anuncios macroeconómicos Macroeconomía Eficiencia de mercado Modelos ARCH-GARCH Modelos de serie de tiempo Mercados accionarios latinoamericanos |
| title_short |
Anuncios macroeconómicos y mercados Accionarios: El caso Latinoamericano |
| title_full |
Anuncios macroeconómicos y mercados Accionarios: El caso Latinoamericano |
| title_fullStr |
Anuncios macroeconómicos y mercados Accionarios: El caso Latinoamericano |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Anuncios macroeconómicos y mercados Accionarios: El caso Latinoamericano |
| title_sort |
Anuncios macroeconómicos y mercados Accionarios: El caso Latinoamericano |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Agudelo, Diego A. Gutierrez, Angelo |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Agudelo, Diego A. Gutierrez, Angelo |
| dc.subject.keyword.eng.fl_str_mv |
Stock markets Macroeconomic announcements Macroeconomics Efficient Market Hypothesis ARCH-GARCH Models Time series models Latin American stock markets |
| topic |
Stock markets Macroeconomic announcements Macroeconomics Efficient Market Hypothesis ARCH-GARCH Models Time series models Latin American stock markets Mercados accionarios Anuncios macroeconómicos Macroeconomía Eficiencia de mercado Modelos ARCH-GARCH Modelos de serie de tiempo Mercados accionarios latinoamericanos |
| dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv |
Mercados accionarios Anuncios macroeconómicos Macroeconomía Eficiencia de mercado Modelos ARCH-GARCH Modelos de serie de tiempo Mercados accionarios latinoamericanos |
| description |
Do stock markets reflect changes on the macroeconomic fundamentals? . The semi-strong form of the Efficient market hypothesis (HEM - Fama 1970) asserts that stock prices should react immediately to the surprise content on announcements of macroeconomic variables, without predictable over or under reaction. We test this in the six main Latin-American equity markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, México and Perú, for the announcements of Consumer Price Inflation, Central Bank interest rate, GDP growth, Trade Balance and Unemployment rate. Following Flannery and Protopapadakis (2002), we estimate the effect of the surprises of such announcements, using time series models of conditional volatility, controlling of the exchange rate and international stock markets. We found that the effects on the market returns are significant and with the expected sign only for the CPI in Mexico, for the interest rate in Chile and Colombia, and for Unemployment on those three markets. Moreover, in some cases the stock markets incorporate the announcement with a lag, whereas in others, they react to the announcement rather than to the surprise, in conflict with the HEM. We conclude that the Latin-American stock markets react only partially to the macroeconomic announcements and not fully incorporating the new information in an efficient manner. |
| publishDate |
2011 |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2011-12-15 |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2013-03-21T20:31:59Z |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2013-03-21T20:31:59Z |
| dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv |
workingPaper info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper |
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http://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bcce |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042 |
| dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Documento de trabajo de investigación |
| dc.type.hasVersion.eng.fl_str_mv |
draft |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10784/666 |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10784/666 |
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spa |
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spa |
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http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
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Acceso abierto |
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Acceso abierto http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
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Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees |
| dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv |
Universidad EAFIT |
| dc.publisher.department.spa.fl_str_mv |
Escuela de Economía y Finanzas |
| institution |
Universidad EAFIT |
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| spelling |
Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees2013-03-21T20:31:59Z2011-12-152013-03-21T20:31:59Zhttp://hdl.handle.net/10784/666Do stock markets reflect changes on the macroeconomic fundamentals? . The semi-strong form of the Efficient market hypothesis (HEM - Fama 1970) asserts that stock prices should react immediately to the surprise content on announcements of macroeconomic variables, without predictable over or under reaction. We test this in the six main Latin-American equity markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, México and Perú, for the announcements of Consumer Price Inflation, Central Bank interest rate, GDP growth, Trade Balance and Unemployment rate. Following Flannery and Protopapadakis (2002), we estimate the effect of the surprises of such announcements, using time series models of conditional volatility, controlling of the exchange rate and international stock markets. We found that the effects on the market returns are significant and with the expected sign only for the CPI in Mexico, for the interest rate in Chile and Colombia, and for Unemployment on those three markets. Moreover, in some cases the stock markets incorporate the announcement with a lag, whereas in others, they react to the announcement rather than to the surprise, in conflict with the HEM. We conclude that the Latin-American stock markets react only partially to the macroeconomic announcements and not fully incorporating the new information in an efficient manner.Reflejan los mercados accionarios los fundamentales macroeconómicos de un país?. La hipótesis de eficiencia semifuerte (Fama 1970) implica que los mercados accionarios deben reaccionar inmediatamente, y sin sobre ni subreacción predecible, a las sorpresas en los anuncios macroeconómicos relevantes. Ponemos a prueba esta implicación en los seis principales mercados accionarios de Latinoamérica: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú ante los anuncios de inflación, tasa de interés del banco central, PIB, balanza comercial y desempleo. Se discute el efecto esperado de una sorpresa en el anuncio de cada variable económica. Siguiendo a Flannery y Protopapadakis (2002), se estima el efecto sobre la media y la volatilidad de dichos anuncios mediante modelos de serie de tiempo univariados de volatilidad heterocesdástica controlando por los efectos de los rendimientos de índices internacionales y de la tasa de cambio. Entre los principales hallazgos se encuentra que los efectos de los anuncios solo son significativos y con el signo esperado para la inflación en México, para la tasa de interés en Chile y Colombia, y para el desempleo en estos tres mercados. Se encuentra además que, en determinados casos, los mercados no incorporan toda la información en el día del anuncio, y en otros, que reaccionan ante el anuncio en sí mismo controlando por la sorpresa, contrario a lo postulado por la hipótesis de eficiencia de mercado. Se concluye que los mercados accionarios latinoamericanos, solo reaccionan parcialmente a la información macro, y no con total eficiencia.spaUniversidad EAFITEscuela de Economía y FinanzasAnuncios macroeconómicos y mercados Accionarios: El caso LatinoamericanoworkingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperDocumento de trabajo de investigacióndrafthttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bccehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042Acceso abiertohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Stock marketsMacroeconomic announcementsMacroeconomicsEfficient Market HypothesisARCH-GARCH ModelsTime series modelsLatin American stock marketsMercados accionariosAnuncios macroeconómicosMacroeconomíaEficiencia de mercadoModelos ARCH-GARCHModelos de serie de tiempoMercados accionarios latinoamericanosAgudelo, Diego A.Gutierrez, Angelodagudelo@eafit.edu.coagutie28@eafit.edu.coORIGINAL2011_17_Diego_Agudelo.pdf2011_17_Diego_Agudelo.pdfapplication/pdf740345https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/64efc85d-f55c-4716-ab13-62533909ba79/downloade7ddbfb03acea35576d6f37c21323739MD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81748https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/2786792b-0f14-4acf-85ce-994bb4933930/download8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33MD5210784/666oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/6662024-03-05 14:06:35.129open.accesshttps://repository.eafit.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITrepositorio@eafit.edu.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 |