Crisis monetarias y crisis de deuda en América Latina, 1870-1957

Una de las razones por las cuales muchos países han decidido mantener regímenes de tipos de cambio fijo ha sido el miedo a la flotación cambiaria. Esta aversión proviene de la idea de que la inestabilidad monetaria afecta la capacidad de pago de un país, sobre todo si la composición de la deuda es m...

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Autores:: Flores Zendejas , Juan

Tipo de recurso:: Article of journal

Fecha de publicación:: 2023

Institución:: Universidad Externado de Colombia

Repositorio:: Biblioteca Digital Universidad Externado de Colombia

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dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv	Crisis monetarias y crisis de deuda en América Latina, 1870-1957
dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv	Monetary crises and debt crises in Latin America, 1870-1957
title	Crisis monetarias y crisis de deuda en América Latina, 1870-1957
spellingShingle	Crisis monetarias y crisis de deuda en América Latina, 1870-1957 Debt crises; monetary crises; financial crises; fixed exchange rate; public debt; Latin America; x Latin America; fiscal capacity crisis de deuda; crisis monetarias; crisis financieras; tipo de cambio fijo; deuda pública; América Latina; capacidad fiscal
title_short	Crisis monetarias y crisis de deuda en América Latina, 1870-1957
title_full	Crisis monetarias y crisis de deuda en América Latina, 1870-1957
title_fullStr	Crisis monetarias y crisis de deuda en América Latina, 1870-1957
title_full_unstemmed	Crisis monetarias y crisis de deuda en América Latina, 1870-1957
title_sort	Crisis monetarias y crisis de deuda en América Latina, 1870-1957
dc.creator.fl_str_mv	Flores Zendejas , Juan
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv	Flores Zendejas , Juan
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv	Debt crises; monetary crises; financial crises; fixed exchange rate; public debt; Latin America; x Latin America; fiscal capacity
topic	Debt crises; monetary crises; financial crises; fixed exchange rate; public debt; Latin America; x Latin America; fiscal capacity crisis de deuda; crisis monetarias; crisis financieras; tipo de cambio fijo; deuda pública; América Latina; capacidad fiscal
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv	crisis de deuda; crisis monetarias; crisis financieras; tipo de cambio fijo; deuda pública; América Latina; capacidad fiscal
description	Una de las razones por las cuales muchos países han decidido mantener regímenes de tipos de cambio fijo ha sido el miedo a la flotación cambiaria. Esta aversión proviene de la idea de que la inestabilidad monetaria afecta la capacidad de pago de un país, sobre todo si la composición de la deuda es mayoritariamente en moneda extranjera. Mientras que la literatura se ha enfocado en periodos cortos y recientes, este artículo adopta un enfoque de largo plazo, y analiza el vínculo entre las crisis de deuda y las crisis monetarias entre 1870 y 1957, en una muestra de países de América Latina. Encontramos que la poca estabilidad cambiaria tuvo efectos contrastantes sobre la frecuencia de las crisis de deuda. Mientras que en el siglo XIX el tipo de cambio tuvo efectos modestos sobre la ocurrencia de defaults, en el periodo de entreguerras el tipo de cambio no tiene ninguna incidencia sobre de la decisión de los gobiernos estudiados para hacer default. De hecho, por lo general, las frecuentes crisis de deuda en el siglo XIX no coinciden con las crisis monetarias. En ambos periodos, el nivel de deuda pública respecto al producto interno bruto (PIB) y, en cierta medida, el comportamiento de los términos de intercambio, fueron variables más importantes. Finalmente mostramos que, en el periodo posterior a la Segunda Guerra Mundial, la estabilización monetaria antecedió a las negociaciones con los bonistas de deuda mucho tiempo. Esta perspectiva de largo plazo sirve para relativizar la importancia de la estabilidad cambiaria sobre el riesgo de default.
publishDate	2023
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv	2023-07-31T15:12:13Z 2024-06-07T07:31:11Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv	2023-07-31T15:12:13Z 2024-06-07T07:31:11Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv	2023-07-31
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv	Artículo de revista
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dc.relation.citationedition.spa.fl_str_mv	Núm. 23 , Año 2022 : Julio-Diciembre
dc.relation.citationendpage.none.fl_str_mv	177
dc.relation.citationissue.spa.fl_str_mv	23
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dc.relation.references.spa.fl_str_mv	Accominotti, O. y Eichengreen, B. (2016). The mother of all sudden stops: Capital flows and reversals in Europe, 1919-32. Economic History Review, 69(2), 469- 492. https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12128 Aghion, P., Bacchetta, P. y Banerjee, A. (2004). A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises. Journal of Economic Theory, 119(1), 6-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jet.2003.06.004 Avella Gómez, M. (2007). El financiamiento externo de Colombia en el siglo XIX 1820-1920. En A. Meisel Roca y M. T. Ramírez, Economía colombiana del siglo XIX (pp. 135-197). Banco de la República de Colombia. https://ideas.repec.org/p/ bdr/borrec/477.html Baptista, A. (1997). Bases cuantitativas de la economía venezolana, 1830-1995. Fundación Polar Barciela López, C., Carreras, A., Tafunell, X. y Fundación BBVA (2005). Estadísticas históricas de España: Siglos XIX-XX (2. ed., rev.ampliada). Fundación BBVA. Barro, R. J. y Ursúa, J. F. (2008). Macroeconomic crises since 1870. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, 13940. http://www.nber.org/papers/ w13940 Bértola, L. y Ocampo, J. A. (2013). The economic development of Latin America since independence (Repr). Oxford University Press. Blattman, C., Hwang, J. y Williamson, J. G. (2007). Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939. Journal of Development Economics, 82(1), 156-179. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.09.003 Bonino Gayoso, N., Román, C. y Willebald, H. (2012). PIB y estructura productiva en Uruguay (1870-2011): revisión de series históricas y discusión metodológica. Documentos de Trabajo 12-05, Instituto de Economía - IECON. Bordo, M. D. y Rockoff, H. (1996). The Gold Standard as a “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval”. The Journal of Economic History, 56(2), 389-428. Bordo, M., Eichengreen, B., Klingebiel, D., Martinez-Peria, M. S. y Rose, A. K. (2001). Is the crisis problem growing more severe? Economic Policy, 16(32), 53-82. Carrillo Batalla, T. E. (2002). Cuentas nacionales de Venezuela,1874-1914. Banco Central de Venezuela. Clemens, M. A. y Williamson, J. G. (2004). Wealth bias in the first global capital market boom, 1870-1913. Economic Journal, 114(495), 304-337. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00211.x Coatsworth, J. H. (2005). Structures, endowments, and institutions in the economic history of Latin America. Latin American Research Review, 40(3), 126-144. Corporation of Foreign Bondholders (Great Britain) Council (1927). Annual report of the Council of the Corporation of foreign bondholders for the year1926. https:// searchworks.stanford.edu/view/pm015jz5592 Dawson, F. G. (1990). The first Latin American debt crisis: The city of London and the 1822-25 Loan Bubble / Frank Griffith Dawson. Yale University Press. Della Paolera, G. y Taylor, A. M. (2007). Straining at the Anchor: The Argentine Currency Board and the Search for Macroeconomic Stability, 1880-1935. University of Chicago Press. Díaz Fuentes, D. y Marichal, C. (1999). The emergence of central banking in Latin America in the early 20th Century. En C.-L. Holtfrerich, J. Reis y G. Toniolo, The Emergence of Central Banking from 1918 to the Present (pp. 279-322). Ashgate. Díaz-Alejandro, C. (1982). Latin America in the 1930s. Economic Growth Center, Yale University. Drake, P. W. (1994). Money doctors, foreign debts, and economic reforms in Latin America from the 1890s to the present. SR Books. Eichengreen, B. y Drake, P. W. (1994). House calls of the money doctor: The Kemmerer missions to Latin America, 1917-1931. En Money doctors, foreign debts, and economic reforms in Latin America from the 1890s to the present (pp. 110-132). SR Books. Eichengreen, B. y Hausmann, R. (1999). Exchange rates and financial fragility. En Federal Reserve of Kansas City, New challenges for monetary policy: A symposium (pp. 329-368). Federal Reserve of Kansas City. Eichengreen, B. J. (1998). Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System (4th printing, with an update). Princeton University Press. Eichengreen, B. J. y Flandreau, M. (1997). The gold standard in theory and history (2.a ed.). Routledge. Eichengreen, B. y Portes, R. (1989). Settling defaults in the era of bond finance. The World Bank Economic Review, 3(2), 211. Flandreau, M. y Flores, J. H. (2009). Bonds and brands: Foundations of sovereign debt markets, 1820-1830. The Journal of Economic History, 69(03), 646-684. https:// doi.org/10.1017/S0022050709001089 Flandreau, M. y Zumer, F. (2004). The making of global finance 1880-1913. Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:hul.eresource:souroecd Flores, J. (2010). Competition in the underwriting markets of sovereign debt: The Baring crisis revisited. Law and Contemporary Problems, 73(4), 129-150. Flores, J. H. (2011). Information asymmetries and conflict of interest during the Baring Crisis, 1880?1890. Financial History Review, 18(02), 191-215. https://doi. org/10.1017/S0968565011000060 Flores, J. H. (2012). Crying on lombard street: Fixing sovereign defaults in the 1890s. European Review of History: Revue europeenne d’histoire, 19(6), 979-997. https:// doi.org/10.1080/13507486.2012.739144 Flores Zendejas, J. (2012). Fundamentos económicos, fallos de mercado y exportación de capitales: América Latina y el mercado de Londres, 1880-1913. América Latina en la Historia Económica, 19(3), 5-30. https://doi.org/10.18232/alhe.v19i3.527 Flores Zendejas, J. (2015). Capital Markets and Sovereign Defaults: A Historical Perspective (Working Paper unige: 73325). University of Geneva, Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History. https://ideas.repec.org/p/gnv/wpaper/unige73325.html Flores Zendejas, J. (2021). Money doctors and Latin American central banks at the onset of the Great Depression. Journal of Latin American Studies, 53(3), 429-463. https:// doi:10.1017/S0022216X21000444 Flores Zendejas, J., Lopez Soto, D. y Sanchez Amador, D. (2016). New Paradigms and Old Promises: Central Banks and the Market for Sovereign Debt in the Interwar Period. Working Papers of the Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History; 1/2020. Ford, A. G. (1962). The Gold Standard, 1880-1914, Britain and Argentina. Clarendon Press. Foreign Bondholders Protective Council, inc. (1935). Annual report—Foreign Bondholders Protective Council, inc. Foreign Bondholders Protective Council. Gaillard, N. (2014). When Sovereigns Go Bankrupt: A Study on Sovereign Risk. Springer International Publishing. Grafe, R. y Irigoin, M. A. (2006). The Spanish Empire and its legacy: Fiscal redistribution and political conflict in colonial and post-colonial Spanish America. Journal of Global History, 1(02), 241-267. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1740022806000155 Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia (2009). Estadísticas históricas de México. INAH. Jeanne, O. y Zettelmeyer, J. (2005). Original sin, balance-sheet crises, and the Roles of international lending. En B. Eichengreen y R. Hausmann, Other People’s Money. Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging Market Economies. University of Chicago Press. https://chicago.universitypressscholarship.com/ view/10.7208/chicago/9780226194578.001.0001/upso-9780226194554-chapter-5 Jeftanovic, P., Jofré, J., Lüders, R. y Paglia, M. (2003). Economía chilena 1860-2000: Estadísticas monetarias. Documento de Trabajo. Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Instituto de Economía, 189. https://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/4817 Kalmanovitz, S. y López Rivera, E. (2009). Las cuentas nacionales de Colombia en el siglo XIX. Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, Facultad de Ciencias Económico-Administrativas. López-Córdova, J. E. y Meissner, C. M. (2003). Exchange-rate regimes and international trade: Evidence from the classical gold standard era. American Economic Review, 93(1), 344-353. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803321455331 Marichal, C. (1989). A century of debt crises in Latin America: From independance to the Great Depression, 1820-1930. Princeton University Press. Marichal, C. (2010). Nueva historia de las grandes crisis financieras: una perspectiva global, 1873-2008. Debate. Martín Aceña, P. y Reis, J. (2000). Monetary standards in the periphery: Paper, silver, and gold, 1854-1933. StMartin’s Press. Mason, E. S. y Asher, R. E. (2010). The World Bank since Bretton Woods. Brookings Institution Press. Mauro, P., Romeu, R., Binder, A. y Zaman, A. (2015). A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 76, 55-70. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.07.003 Meissner, C. M. (2005). A new world order: Explaining the international diffusion of the gold standard, 1870-1913. Journal of International Economics, 66(2), 385- 406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2004.08.007 Mitchener, K. J. y Weidenmier, M. (2008a). The Baring crisis and the great Latin American meltdown of the 1890s. The Journal of Economic History, 68(02), 462-500. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050708000375 Mitchener, K. J. y Weidenmier, M. (2008b). Trade and Empire. The Economic Journal, 118(533), 1805-1834. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02192.x Mody, A. (2004). What is an emerging market? (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 879002). Social Science Research Network. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=879002. Obstfeld, M. y Taylor, A. M. (2003). Sovereign risk, credibility and the gold standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31. The Economic Journal, 113(487), 241-275. https://doi. org/10.1111/1468-0297.00128 Ögren, A. y Øksendal, L. (2012). The gold standard peripheries: Monetary policy, adjustment and flexibility in a global setting. Palgrave Macmillan. Panizza, U., Sturzenegger, F. y Zettelmeyer, J. (2009). The economics and law of sovereign debt and default. Journal of Economic Literature, 47(3), 651-698. https:// doi.org/10.1257/jel.47.3.651 Paolera, G. della y Taylor, A. M. (2013). Sovereign debt in Latin America, 1820-1913. Revista de Historia Económica - Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, 31(2), 173-217. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0212610913000128 Reinhart, C. M., Reinhart, V. y Trebesch, C. (2016). Global cycles: Capital flows, commodities, and sovereign defaults, 1815-2015. American Economic Review, 106(5), 574-580. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20161014 Reinhart, C. M. y Rogoff, K. S. (2011). This time is different: Eight centuries of financial folly (First paperback print). Princeton University Press. Sabaté, M., Fillat, C. y Escario, R. (2019). Budget deficits and money creation: Exploring their relation before Bretton Woods. Explorations in Economic History, 72, 38-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2018.12.002 Sicotte, R. y Vizcarra, C. (2009). War and foreign debt settlement in early Republican Spanish America. Revista de Historia Económica (Second Series), 27(02), 247- 289. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0212610900000768 Summerhill, W. R. (2015). Inglorious Revolution: Political Institutions, Sovereign Debt, and Financial Underdevelopment in Imperial Brazil. Yale University Press. Suter, C. (1992). Debt Cycles in the World-Economy: Foreign Loans, Financial Crises, and Debt Settlements, 1820-1990. Westview Press. Tomz, M. y Wright, M. L. J. (2007). Do countries default in “bad times” ? Journal of the European Economic Association, 5(2-3), 352-360. Triffin, R. (1964). The Evolution of the International Monetary System: Historical Reappraisal and Future Perspectives. Princeton University Press. Triner, G. D. y Wandschneider, K. (2005). The Baring crisis and the brazilian encilhamento, 1889-1891: An early example of contagion among emerging capital markets. Financial History Review, 12(2), 199-225. https://doi.org/10.1017/ S0968565005000107 Vizcarra, C. (2011). Guano, compromisos creíbles y el pago de la deuda externa peruana del siglo XIX. Economia, 34(67), 9-38. Williams, J. H. (1920). Argentine International Trade Under Inconvertible Paper Money, 1880-1900. Harvard University Press. Williamson, J. G. (2008). Globalization and the great divergence: Terms of trade booms and volatility in the poor periphery 1782-1913. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, 13841. http://www.nber.org/papers/w13841
dc.rights.spa.fl_str_mv	Juan Flores Zendejas - 2023
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spelling	Flores Zendejas , Juan2023-07-31T15:12:13Z2024-06-07T07:31:11Z2023-07-31T15:12:13Z2024-06-07T07:31:11Z2023-07-31Una de las razones por las cuales muchos países han decidido mantener regímenes de tipos de cambio fijo ha sido el miedo a la flotación cambiaria. Esta aversión proviene de la idea de que la inestabilidad monetaria afecta la capacidad de pago de un país, sobre todo si la composición de la deuda es mayoritariamente en moneda extranjera. Mientras que la literatura se ha enfocado en periodos cortos y recientes, este artículo adopta un enfoque de largo plazo, y analiza el vínculo entre las crisis de deuda y las crisis monetarias entre 1870 y 1957, en una muestra de países de América Latina. Encontramos que la poca estabilidad cambiaria tuvo efectos contrastantes sobre la frecuencia de las crisis de deuda. Mientras que en el siglo XIX el tipo de cambio tuvo efectos modestos sobre la ocurrencia de defaults, en el periodo de entreguerras el tipo de cambio no tiene ninguna incidencia sobre de la decisión de los gobiernos estudiados para hacer default. De hecho, por lo general, las frecuentes crisis de deuda en el siglo XIX no coinciden con las crisis monetarias. En ambos periodos, el nivel de deuda pública respecto al producto interno bruto (PIB) y, en cierta medida, el comportamiento de los términos de intercambio, fueron variables más importantes. Finalmente mostramos que, en el periodo posterior a la Segunda Guerra Mundial, la estabilización monetaria antecedió a las negociaciones con los bonistas de deuda mucho tiempo. Esta perspectiva de largo plazo sirve para relativizar la importancia de la estabilidad cambiaria sobre el riesgo de default.One of the reasons many countries decide to maintain fixed exchange rate regimes is the fear of wide exchange rate fluctuations. This aversion stems from the idea that monetary instability affects a country’s ability to pay, especially if the denomination of debt is predominantly foreign currency. While the literature has focused on short and recent periods, this study adopts a long-term approach. It analyzes the link between debt and monetary crises between 1870 and 1957 in a sample of Latin American countries. We find that low exchange rate stability has contrasting effects on debt crisis frequency. In the 19th century, the exchange rate had modest effects on the occurrence of defaults, and it had no effect on the decision of governments to default during the interwar period. In the 19th century, debt and monetary crises did not always coincide. In both periods, the level of public debt relative to gross domestic product (GDP) and, to some extent, the behavior of the terms of trade were more important variables behind the incidence of defaults. Finally, we show that in the period after World War II, monetary stabilization largely preceded negotiations with debt bondholders. This long-term perspective relativizes the importance of exchange rate stability in the risk of default.application/pdftext/html10.18601/17941113.n23.052346-21401794-1113https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/handle/001/15358https://doi.org/10.18601/17941113.n23.05spaUniversidad Externado de Colombiahttps://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/download/8919/14906https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/download/8919/14907Núm. 23 , Año 2022 : Julio-Diciembre17723147ODEONAccominotti, O. y Eichengreen, B. (2016). The mother of all sudden stops: Capital flows and reversals in Europe, 1919-32. Economic History Review, 69(2), 469- 492. https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12128Aghion, P., Bacchetta, P. y Banerjee, A. (2004). A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises. Journal of Economic Theory, 119(1), 6-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jet.2003.06.004Avella Gómez, M. (2007). El financiamiento externo de Colombia en el siglo XIX 1820-1920. En A. Meisel Roca y M. T. Ramírez, Economía colombiana del siglo XIX (pp. 135-197). Banco de la República de Colombia. https://ideas.repec.org/p/ bdr/borrec/477.htmlBaptista, A. (1997). Bases cuantitativas de la economía venezolana, 1830-1995. Fundación PolarBarciela López, C., Carreras, A., Tafunell, X. y Fundación BBVA (2005). Estadísticas históricas de España: Siglos XIX-XX (2. ed., rev.ampliada). Fundación BBVA.Barro, R. J. y Ursúa, J. F. (2008). Macroeconomic crises since 1870. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, 13940. http://www.nber.org/papers/ w13940Bértola, L. y Ocampo, J. A. (2013). The economic development of Latin America since independence (Repr). Oxford University Press.Blattman, C., Hwang, J. y Williamson, J. G. (2007). Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939. Journal of Development Economics, 82(1), 156-179. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.09.003Bonino Gayoso, N., Román, C. y Willebald, H. (2012). PIB y estructura productiva en Uruguay (1870-2011): revisión de series históricas y discusión metodológica. Documentos de Trabajo 12-05, Instituto de Economía - IECON.Bordo, M. D. y Rockoff, H. (1996). The Gold Standard as a “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval”. The Journal of Economic History, 56(2), 389-428.Bordo, M., Eichengreen, B., Klingebiel, D., Martinez-Peria, M. S. y Rose, A. K. (2001). Is the crisis problem growing more severe? Economic Policy, 16(32), 53-82.Carrillo Batalla, T. E. (2002). Cuentas nacionales de Venezuela,1874-1914. Banco Central de Venezuela.Clemens, M. A. y Williamson, J. G. (2004). Wealth bias in the first global capital market boom, 1870-1913. 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National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, 13841. http://www.nber.org/papers/w13841Juan Flores Zendejas - 2023info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/view/8919Debt crises;monetary crises;financial crises;fixed exchange rate;public debt;Latin America; xLatin America;fiscal capacitycrisis de deuda;crisis monetarias;crisis financieras;tipo de cambio fijo;deuda pública;América Latina;capacidad fiscalCrisis monetarias y crisis de deuda en América Latina, 1870-1957Monetary crises and debt crises in Latin America, 1870-1957Artículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleJournal articlehttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARTREFinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPublicationOREORE.xmltext/xml2499https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/bitstreams/357cff9d-e988-433b-ba20-5c329b675325/downloada089a7b3911482dceba8e27d1be14fddMD51001/15358oai:bdigital.uexternado.edu.co:001/153582024-06-07 02:31:11.761http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0Juan Flores Zendejas - 2023https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.coUniversidad Externado de Colombiametabiblioteca@metabiblioteca.org

Crisis monetarias y crisis de deuda en América Latina, 1870-1957

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