Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020

Las crisis bursátiles se han producido con mayor frecuencia en España. Sin embargo, en el periodo 1850-2006, España tuvo una menor probabilidad, que otros países, de que una depresión económica estuviera asociada a una crisis, a pesar de que las depresiones económicas también fueron comunes durante...

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Autores:: Betrán , Concha
Pons, María A.

Tipo de recurso:: Article of journal

Fecha de publicación:: 2023

Institución:: Universidad Externado de Colombia

Repositorio:: Biblioteca Digital Universidad Externado de Colombia

Idioma:: spa

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dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv	Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020
dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv	Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020
title	Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020
spellingShingle	Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020 Stock market crises; macroeconomic depression’s; Spain crisis bursátiles; depresiones macroeconómicas; España
title_short	Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020
title_full	Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020
title_fullStr	Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020
title_full_unstemmed	Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020
title_sort	Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020
dc.creator.fl_str_mv	Betrán , Concha Pons, María A.
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv	Betrán , Concha Pons, María A.
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv	Stock market crises; macroeconomic depression’s; Spain
topic	Stock market crises; macroeconomic depression’s; Spain crisis bursátiles; depresiones macroeconómicas; España
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv	crisis bursátiles; depresiones macroeconómicas; España
description	Las crisis bursátiles se han producido con mayor frecuencia en España. Sin embargo, en el periodo 1850-2006, España tuvo una menor probabilidad, que otros países, de que una depresión económica estuviera asociada a una crisis, a pesar de que las depresiones económicas también fueron comunes durante el periodo. Este resultado podría explicarse por el pequeño tamaño y bajo nivel de desarrollo del mercado bursátil durante la mayor parte de este periodo. Sin embargo, la probabilidad aumenta al considerar un lapso más largo (1850-2018 y también hasta 2020), que incluye los años de mayor desarrollo financiero e integración internacional. En este último periodo, España se parece más a otros países desarrollados y las crisis bursátiles parecen predecir en mayor medida la posibilidad de que se produzca una depresión, especialmente cuando la crisis bursátil va acompañada de una crisis bancaria. En consecuencia, una mayor inestabilidad financiera parece ser el principal mecanismo de transmisión entre las crisis bursátiles y las depresiones.
publishDate	2023
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv	2023-07-31T15:12:13Z 2024-06-07T07:31:12Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv	2023-07-31T15:12:13Z 2024-06-07T07:31:12Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv	2023-07-31
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dc.relation.references.spa.fl_str_mv	Ando, A., & Modigliani, F. (1963). The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests. American Economic Review, 103, 55–84. Barro, R. J., & Ursúa, J. F., (2008). Macroeconomic crises since 1870. Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. (1), 255–350. Barro J. R., & Ursúa, J. F. (2009). Stock Market crashes and Depressions. National Bureau of Economic Research. WP 14760. Barro J. R., & Ursúa, J. F. (2017). Stock Market crashes and Depressions. Research in Economics. 71, 384–398. Betrán, C., Martín-Aceña P., & Pons M. A. (2012). Financial crises in Spain: lessons from the last 150 years. Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, 30 (3), 417-446. Betrán C., & Pons M. A. (2019). Understanding Spanish financial crises severity, 1850- 2015. European Review of Economic History, 23(2), pp.175-192. Betrán, C., & Pons M. A. (2020). Capital Flow Bonanzas as a Fundamental Ingredient in Spain’s Financial Crises, 1850-2015. Revista de Historia Económica-Journal of Iberian and Latin- American Economic History. Boone, L., Giorno, C., & Richardson, P. (1998). Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behavior: Some Recent Evidence. OECD Economics Department WP 208. Bordo, M., & Eichengreen, B. (1999). Is our Current Economic Environment Unusually Crisis Prone? In Gruen, D. & Gower, L. (Eds.), Capital flows and the International Financial System (pp. 18-74). Reserve Bank of Australia. Bordo, M., & Meissner, C. M. (2011). Foreign capital, financial crises and incomes in the first era of globalisation. European Review of Economic History, 15(1), 61-91. Bordo, M., & Meissner, C. M. (2016). Fiscal and Financial crises. NBER Working Paper 22059. Bostic, R., Gabriel, S., & Painter, G. (2009). Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth, and Consumption: New Evidence from Micro Data. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39, pp. 79–89. Caballero, R.J., & Simsek, A. (2020). A model of asset price spirals and aggregate demand amplification of a “covid-19” shock. National Bureau of Economic Research. WP 27044. Calomiris, C., Longhofer, S. D, & Miles, W. (2009). The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect. NBER Working Paper Series 15075. Carroll, C., Otsuka, M., & Slacalek, J. (2011). How Large is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43, 55–79. Case, K.E., Quigley, J.M., & Shiller, R.J. (2013). Wealth Effects Revisited: 1975-2012. Critical Finance Review, 2(1), 101-128. Castañeda L., & Tafunell, X. (2001). La Bolsa de Barcelona entre 1840 y 1913: un nuevo índice. In C. Sudriá, and D. Tirado (Eds.), Peseta y protección. Comercio exterior, moneda y crecimiento económico en la España de la Restauración (pp. 208-236). Universidad de Barcelona. Comín, F., & Cuevas, J. (2017). The deadly embrace between the Banks and the State in Spain, 1850-2015. Revista de Historia Económica – Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, 35 (3), 1-28. Cuevas, J. (2013). Las 13 crisis bursátiles españolas. De la burbuja del ferrocarril a la burbuja tecnológica. In P. Martín-Aceña, E. Martínez-Ruiz, E. and M. A. Pons, Las crisis financieras en la España contemporánea, 1850-2012 (pp. 159-196). Crítica. Cuñado-Eizaguirre, J., Gómez-Biscarri, J., & Pérez de Gracia, F. (2004). Structural changes in volatility and stock markets development: Evidence for Spain. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28 (7), 1745-1773. Chodorow-Reich, G., Nenov, P., & Simsek, A. (2019). Stock market wealth and the real economy: A Local Labour Market Approach. 2010 Meeting Papers 1240, Society for Economic Dynamics. Duca (2001). How Does the Stock Market Affect the Economy? Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Issue 5, 8-12. Farmer, R. E. A. (2011). The stock market crash of 2008 caused the great recession: theory and evidence. NBER Working Paper 17479. National Bureau of Economic Research. Farmer, R. E. A. (2013). Animal spirits, financial crises and persistent unemployment. Economic Journal, 123, 317–340. Farmer, R. E. A. (2015). The Stock Market Crash Really Did Cause the Great Recession. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77 (5), 617-633. Fundación BBVA (2005). Estadísticas históricas de España. Fundación BBVA. Global Financial Data. Hortalá, J. (2006). Crisis y auges en la Bolsa de Barcelona: 1830-2006. Cuadernos de Economía, 29, 5-68. Houpt, S., & Rojo-Cagival, J. C. (2010). Capital market integration in Spain? Introducing the Bilbao Stock Exchange, 1891-1936. Revista de Historia Económica. Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, 28 (3), 535- 573. Hymans, S. H. (1970). Consumer Durable Spending: Explanation and Prediction. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 173–199. Maluquer, J. (2013). La inflación en España. Un índice de precios de consumo, 1830- 2012. Estudios de Historia Economica (Banco de España), 64, 1-147. Mishkin, F. S., & White, E. N. (2002). U.S. stock market crashes and their aftermath: implications for monetary policy. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 8992. National Bureau of Economic Research. Peltonen, T. A., Sousa, R. M., & Vaansteenkiste, I. S. (2009). Wealth effect in Emerging Market Economies. European Central Bank Working Paper series, 1000. Poterba, J. M. (2000). Stock Market Wealth and Consumption. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(2), 99-118. Prados de la Escosura, L. (2017). Spanish Economic Growth, 1850-2015. Palgrave. https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/whrepe/23644.html Prados de la Escosura, L. (2003). El progreso económico de España. Fundación BBVA. Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, H. (2009). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press. Romer, C. D. (1990). The Great Crash and the onset of the Great Depression. Quarterly Journal of economics, 105 (3), 597-624. Sardà, J. (1967). The Financing of Industrial development. OCDE. Sousa, R. M. (2009). Wealth effect from Consumption. Evidence from the Euro area. European Central Bank Working Paper Series. WP 1050. Zandi, M., B. Poi, S. Hoyt, & W. Best (2018). Weighing the Wealth Effect. Moody’s Analytics, March, 1-6.
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spelling	Betrán , ConchaPons, María A.2023-07-31T15:12:13Z2024-06-07T07:31:12Z2023-07-31T15:12:13Z2024-06-07T07:31:12Z2023-07-31Las crisis bursátiles se han producido con mayor frecuencia en España. Sin embargo, en el periodo 1850-2006, España tuvo una menor probabilidad, que otros países, de que una depresión económica estuviera asociada a una crisis, a pesar de que las depresiones económicas también fueron comunes durante el periodo. Este resultado podría explicarse por el pequeño tamaño y bajo nivel de desarrollo del mercado bursátil durante la mayor parte de este periodo. Sin embargo, la probabilidad aumenta al considerar un lapso más largo (1850-2018 y también hasta 2020), que incluye los años de mayor desarrollo financiero e integración internacional. En este último periodo, España se parece más a otros países desarrollados y las crisis bursátiles parecen predecir en mayor medida la posibilidad de que se produzca una depresión, especialmente cuando la crisis bursátil va acompañada de una crisis bancaria. En consecuencia, una mayor inestabilidad financiera parece ser el principal mecanismo de transmisión entre las crisis bursátiles y las depresiones.Stock market crashes have occurred very frequently in Spain. However, in the period 1850-2006, Spain had a lower probability of a depression being associated with a crash than in other countries, even though economic depressions were also common during the period. This result could be explained by the small size and low level of development of the stock market throughout most of this period. However, the probability rises when considering a longer period (1850-2018 and also until 2020), which includes the years of greater financial development and international integration. In this later period, Spain is more similar to other developed countries and stock market crashes seem to be more predictive of the prospect of a depression occurring, especially when the stock market crash is accompanied by a banking crisis. As a result, greater financial instability seems to be the main transmission mechanism between stock market crises and depressions.application/pdftext/html10.18601/17941113.n23.062346-21401794-1113https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/handle/001/15359https://doi.org/10.18601/17941113.n23.06spaUniversidad Externado de Colombiahttps://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/download/8920/14908https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/download/8920/14909Núm. 23 , Año 2022 : Julio-Diciembre20223179ODEONAndo, A., & Modigliani, F. (1963). The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests. American Economic Review, 103, 55–84.Barro, R. J., & Ursúa, J. F., (2008). Macroeconomic crises since 1870. Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. (1), 255–350.Barro J. R., & Ursúa, J. F. (2009). Stock Market crashes and Depressions. National Bureau of Economic Research. WP 14760.Barro J. R., & Ursúa, J. F. (2017). Stock Market crashes and Depressions. Research in Economics. 71, 384–398.Betrán, C., Martín-Aceña P., & Pons M. A. (2012). Financial crises in Spain: lessons from the last 150 years. Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, 30 (3), 417-446.Betrán C., & Pons M. A. (2019). Understanding Spanish financial crises severity, 1850- 2015. European Review of Economic History, 23(2), pp.175-192.Betrán, C., & Pons M. A. (2020). Capital Flow Bonanzas as a Fundamental Ingredient in Spain’s Financial Crises, 1850-2015. Revista de Historia Económica-Journal of Iberian and Latin- American Economic History.Boone, L., Giorno, C., & Richardson, P. (1998). Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behavior: Some Recent Evidence. OECD Economics Department WP 208.Bordo, M., & Eichengreen, B. (1999). Is our Current Economic Environment Unusually Crisis Prone? In Gruen, D. & Gower, L. (Eds.), Capital flows and the International Financial System (pp. 18-74). Reserve Bank of Australia.Bordo, M., & Meissner, C. M. (2011). Foreign capital, financial crises and incomes in the first era of globalisation. European Review of Economic History, 15(1), 61-91.Bordo, M., & Meissner, C. M. (2016). Fiscal and Financial crises. NBER Working Paper 22059.Bostic, R., Gabriel, S., & Painter, G. (2009). Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth, and Consumption: New Evidence from Micro Data. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39, pp. 79–89.Caballero, R.J., & Simsek, A. (2020). A model of asset price spirals and aggregate demand amplification of a “covid-19” shock. National Bureau of Economic Research. WP 27044.Calomiris, C., Longhofer, S. D, & Miles, W. (2009). The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect. NBER Working Paper Series 15075.Carroll, C., Otsuka, M., & Slacalek, J. (2011). How Large is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43, 55–79.Case, K.E., Quigley, J.M., & Shiller, R.J. (2013). Wealth Effects Revisited: 1975-2012. Critical Finance Review, 2(1), 101-128.Castañeda L., & Tafunell, X. (2001). La Bolsa de Barcelona entre 1840 y 1913: un nuevo índice. In C. Sudriá, and D. Tirado (Eds.), Peseta y protección. Comercio exterior, moneda y crecimiento económico en la España de la Restauración (pp. 208-236). Universidad de Barcelona.Comín, F., & Cuevas, J. (2017). The deadly embrace between the Banks and the State in Spain, 1850-2015. Revista de Historia Económica – Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, 35 (3), 1-28.Cuevas, J. (2013). Las 13 crisis bursátiles españolas. De la burbuja del ferrocarril a la burbuja tecnológica. In P. Martín-Aceña, E. Martínez-Ruiz, E. and M. A. Pons, Las crisis financieras en la España contemporánea, 1850-2012 (pp. 159-196). Crítica.Cuñado-Eizaguirre, J., Gómez-Biscarri, J., & Pérez de Gracia, F. (2004). Structural changes in volatility and stock markets development: Evidence for Spain. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28 (7), 1745-1773.Chodorow-Reich, G., Nenov, P., & Simsek, A. (2019). Stock market wealth and the real economy: A Local Labour Market Approach. 2010 Meeting Papers 1240, Society for Economic Dynamics.Duca (2001). How Does the Stock Market Affect the Economy? Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Issue 5, 8-12.Farmer, R. E. A. (2011). The stock market crash of 2008 caused the great recession: theory and evidence. NBER Working Paper 17479. National Bureau of Economic Research.Farmer, R. E. A. (2013). Animal spirits, financial crises and persistent unemployment. Economic Journal, 123, 317–340.Farmer, R. E. A. (2015). The Stock Market Crash Really Did Cause the Great Recession. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77 (5), 617-633.Fundación BBVA (2005). Estadísticas históricas de España. Fundación BBVA.Global Financial Data.Hortalá, J. (2006). Crisis y auges en la Bolsa de Barcelona: 1830-2006. Cuadernos de Economía, 29, 5-68.Houpt, S., & Rojo-Cagival, J. C. (2010). Capital market integration in Spain? Introducing the Bilbao Stock Exchange, 1891-1936. Revista de Historia Económica. Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, 28 (3), 535- 573.Hymans, S. H. (1970). Consumer Durable Spending: Explanation and Prediction. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 173–199.Maluquer, J. (2013). La inflación en España. Un índice de precios de consumo, 1830- 2012. Estudios de Historia Economica (Banco de España), 64, 1-147.Mishkin, F. S., & White, E. N. (2002). U.S. stock market crashes and their aftermath: implications for monetary policy. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 8992. National Bureau of Economic Research.Peltonen, T. A., Sousa, R. M., & Vaansteenkiste, I. S. (2009). Wealth effect in Emerging Market Economies. European Central Bank Working Paper series, 1000.Poterba, J. M. (2000). Stock Market Wealth and Consumption. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(2), 99-118.Prados de la Escosura, L. (2017). Spanish Economic Growth, 1850-2015. Palgrave. https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/whrepe/23644.htmlPrados de la Escosura, L. (2003). El progreso económico de España. Fundación BBVA.Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, H. (2009). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press.Romer, C. D. (1990). The Great Crash and the onset of the Great Depression. Quarterly Journal of economics, 105 (3), 597-624.Sardà, J. (1967). The Financing of Industrial development. OCDE.Sousa, R. M. (2009). Wealth effect from Consumption. Evidence from the Euro area. European Central Bank Working Paper Series. WP 1050.Zandi, M., B. Poi, S. Hoyt, & W. Best (2018). Weighing the Wealth Effect. Moody’s Analytics, March, 1-6.Concha Betrán , María A. Pons - 2023info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/view/8920Stock market crises;macroeconomic depression’s;Spaincrisis bursátiles;depresiones macroeconómicas;EspañaStock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020Artículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleJournal articlehttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARTREFinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPublicationOREORE.xmltext/xml2551https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/bitstreams/351f7de7-ad56-491c-ba72-c7564f3049f2/downloadfa7678dfec4a3236119468ed4fad04eeMD51001/15359oai:bdigital.uexternado.edu.co:001/153592024-06-07 02:31:12.616http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0Concha Betrán , María A. Pons - 2023https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.coUniversidad Externado de Colombiametabiblioteca@metabiblioteca.org

Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020

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