Multipolarity, Alliances and Internal Balancing: Opportunities for Brazil

El objetivo de este artículo es obtener una visión sobre el papel de Brasil en un esce­nario multipolar desequilibrado. Para lograr este objetivo, se presentan los principales conceptos y supuestos del neorrealismo y el neorrealismo ofensivo. Se argumenta que la estrategia óptima para Brasil en este...

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Autores:
Dall’Agnol, Gustavo Fornari
De Conti Pagliari, Graciela
Tipo de recurso:
Article of journal
Fecha de publicación:
2024
Institución:
Universidad Externado de Colombia
Repositorio:
Biblioteca Digital Universidad Externado de Colombia
Idioma:
spa
OAI Identifier:
oai:bdigital.uexternado.edu.co:001/25294
Acceso en línea:
https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/handle/001/25294
https://doi.org/10.18601/16577558.n41.13
Palabra clave:
Multipolarity;
internal balancing;
defense;
Brazil
multipolaridad;
balance interno;
defensa;
Brasil
Rights
openAccess
License
Gustavo Fornari Dall’Agnol, Graciele De Conti Pagliari - 2024
id uexternad2_edcf610ab16fc5a2d36b706507621964
oai_identifier_str oai:bdigital.uexternado.edu.co:001/25294
network_acronym_str uexternad2
network_name_str Biblioteca Digital Universidad Externado de Colombia
repository_id_str
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Multipolarity, Alliances and Internal Balancing: Opportunities for Brazil
dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv Multipolarity, Alliances and Internal Balancing: Opportunities for Brazil
title Multipolarity, Alliances and Internal Balancing: Opportunities for Brazil
spellingShingle Multipolarity, Alliances and Internal Balancing: Opportunities for Brazil
Multipolarity;
internal balancing;
defense;
Brazil
multipolaridad;
balance interno;
defensa;
Brasil
title_short Multipolarity, Alliances and Internal Balancing: Opportunities for Brazil
title_full Multipolarity, Alliances and Internal Balancing: Opportunities for Brazil
title_fullStr Multipolarity, Alliances and Internal Balancing: Opportunities for Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Multipolarity, Alliances and Internal Balancing: Opportunities for Brazil
title_sort Multipolarity, Alliances and Internal Balancing: Opportunities for Brazil
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Dall’Agnol, Gustavo Fornari
De Conti Pagliari, Graciela
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv Dall’Agnol, Gustavo Fornari
De Conti Pagliari, Graciela
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Multipolarity;
internal balancing;
defense;
Brazil
topic Multipolarity;
internal balancing;
defense;
Brazil
multipolaridad;
balance interno;
defensa;
Brasil
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv multipolaridad;
balance interno;
defensa;
Brasil
description El objetivo de este artículo es obtener una visión sobre el papel de Brasil en un esce­nario multipolar desequilibrado. Para lograr este objetivo, se presentan los principales conceptos y supuestos del neorrealismo y el neorrealismo ofensivo. Se argumenta que la estrategia óptima para Brasil en este momento es perseguir un balance interno para mejorar su posición de negociación entre las grandes potencias y competidores similares. En este sentido, el artículo es normativo, aunque sus recomendaciones se derivan de los imperativos del sistema, como las vulnerabilidades de las alianzas en un mundo multipolar. Estados Unidos está involucrado en áreas clave en Asia y Europa, lo que crea un margen de maniobrabilidad en América Latina, históricamente una zona de influencia para Estados Unidos. Además, Brasil debe fortalecer su poder material, ya que es un país de considerable riqueza y tamaño, y, por lo tanto, de inte­rés para las grandes potencias. Para lograr una posición de negociación sólida, deben abordarse problemas estructurales como el gasto en defensa y la inversión. Concluimos que, independientemente de si Brasil “elige un lado” o mantiene una posición neutral, el balance interno es necesario para alcanzar sus objetivos.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2024-12-03T10:38:49Z
2025-04-09T17:18:18Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2024-12-03T10:38:49Z
2025-04-09T17:18:18Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2024-12-03
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo de revista
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https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/oasis/article/download/10037/17543
dc.relation.citationedition.spa.fl_str_mv Núm. 41 , Año 2025 : Enero-Junio
dc.relation.citationendpage.none.fl_str_mv 298
dc.relation.citationissue.spa.fl_str_mv 41
dc.relation.citationstartpage.none.fl_str_mv 281
dc.relation.ispartofjournal.spa.fl_str_mv Oasis
dc.relation.references.spa.fl_str_mv Amorim Neto, O. (2011) De Dutra a Lula: a condução e os determinantes da política externa brasileira. Elsevier.
Ashford, E., Cooper, E. (2023, October 5). Yes, the world is multipolar: and that isn’t bad news for the United States. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/05/usa-china-multipolar-bipolar-unipolar/.
Avila, R. (2014). Innovation and the warlike phenomenon. Austral: Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations, 6(6).
Brasil (2020). Livro branco da defesa nacional 2020. https://www.gov.br/defesa/pt-br/assuntos/copy_of_estado-e-defesa/livro_branco_congresso_nacional.pdf
Brooks, S., and Wohlforth, W. (2008). World out of balance. Princeton University Press.
Campbell, P. (2019) Military Realism. University of Missouri Press.
Cepik, M., and Schneider, L. (2010) Kenneth Waltz. In M. Medeiros, M. Costa Lima, R. Villa, and R. Rocha Reis. (Eds.), Os Clássicos das Relações Internacionais (1st ed., Vol. 1, pp. 84- 109). Hucitec.
Christensen, T. J., and Snyder, J. (1990). Chain gangs and passed bucks: Predicting alliance patterns in multipolarity. International Organization, 44(2), 137-168.
Dawood, L. (2018). China’s military modernisation: international systemic change through internal balancing? Realism in Practice.
Diniz, E. P. L. (2017). Brazil’s nuclear submarine: A broader approach to the safeguards issue. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 60(2).
Diniz, E. (2010). Defesa, orçamento e projeto de força: O Brasil em perspectiva comparada. In M. C. Cepik (Ed.),Segurança Internacional: práticas, tendências e conceitos. Hucitec, 2010.
Elias, N. (1993). O processo civilizador: Formação do estado e civilização. Zahar.
Elman, C. (1996). Horses for courses: Why not neorealist theories of foreign policy? Security Studies, 6(1), 7-53.
Elman, C. (1999). The logic of emulation: the diffusion of military practices in the international system. Columbia University.
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). (2024). Military Balance 2024. https://www. iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/
Herz, J. H. (1950). Idealist internationalism and the security dilemma. World Politics, 2(2), 157-180.
Herz, M., Dawood L., and Lage, V.C. (2017). A nuclear submarine in the South Atlantic: The framing of threats and deterrence. Contexto Internacional, 39(2), 329-350.
Herz, M. A. (2022). Conservative foreign policy for Brazil. Latin American Policy, 13(2), 376-388.
Legro, J. W., and Moravcsik, A. (1999). Is anybody still a realist? International Security, 24(2), 5-55.
Lieber, K. (2000). Grasping the technological peace: The offense-defense balance and international security. International Security, 25(1).
Malamud, A. (2011). A leader without followers? The growing divergence between the regional and global performance of Brazilian foreign policy. Latin American Politics and Society, 53(3),1-24.
Malinski, T. (2008). O Brasil e a ordem mundial multipolar. Revista da Escola Superior de Guerra, 24(49).
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2018). The great delusion: Liberal dreams and international realities. Yale University Press.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). The tragedy of great power politics. W.W Norton & Company.
Pádua, L. (n.d.). Para Celso Amorim, o Brasil deve buscar mundo multipolar e não se alinhar a potências. Exame. https://exame.com/ para-celso-amorim-o-brasil-deve-buscar-mundo-multipolar-e-nao-se-alinhar-a-potencias/
Parent, J., and Rosato, S. (2015). Balancing in neorealism. International Security, 40(2).
Raska, M. (2015). Military innovation in small states: Creating a reverse asymmetry. Routledge.
Resende-Santos, A. (2008). Neorealism, states, and modern mass army. Cambridge University Press.
Rodriguez. J. C. C. (2012). Chacal ou cordeiro? O Brasil frente aos desafios e oportunidades do sistema internacional. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 55(2), 70-89.
Schweller, R., and Pu, X. (2011). After unipolarity: China’s visions of international order in an era of U.S. Decline. International Security, 36(1), 41-72.
Soares De Lima, M. R., and Hirst, M. (2006). Brazil as an intermediate state and regional power: Action, choice and responsibilities. International Affairs, 82(1), 21-40.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). (2022). SIPRI yearbook 2022. Blackwell.
Valeriano, B. (2009). The tragedy of offensive realism: Testing aggressive power politics models. International Interactions, 35(2),179- 206.
Vasquez, J. A. (2007). The realist paradigm and degenerative versus progressive research programs: An appraisal of neotraditional research on Waltz’s balancing proposition. American Political Science Review, 91(4), 899-912.
Villa, R. A. D., and Viana, M. T. (2010). Security issues during Lula’s administration: From the reactive to the assertive approach. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 53, 91– 114.
Visentini, P. G. F., and Silva, A. L. R. da. (2010). Brazil and the economic, political, and environmental multilateralism: The Lula years (2003-2010). Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 5, 54-72.
Waltz, K. (1979). Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
Waltz, K. (1996). International politics is not foreign policy. Security Studies, 6(1).
Wohlforth, W. C. (1999). The stability of a unipolar world. International Security, 24(1), 5-41.
dc.rights.spa.fl_str_mv Gustavo Fornari Dall’Agnol, Graciele De Conti Pagliari - 2024
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spelling Dall’Agnol, Gustavo FornariDe Conti Pagliari, Graciela2024-12-03T10:38:49Z2025-04-09T17:18:18Z2024-12-03T10:38:49Z2025-04-09T17:18:18Z2024-12-03El objetivo de este artículo es obtener una visión sobre el papel de Brasil en un esce­nario multipolar desequilibrado. Para lograr este objetivo, se presentan los principales conceptos y supuestos del neorrealismo y el neorrealismo ofensivo. Se argumenta que la estrategia óptima para Brasil en este momento es perseguir un balance interno para mejorar su posición de negociación entre las grandes potencias y competidores similares. En este sentido, el artículo es normativo, aunque sus recomendaciones se derivan de los imperativos del sistema, como las vulnerabilidades de las alianzas en un mundo multipolar. Estados Unidos está involucrado en áreas clave en Asia y Europa, lo que crea un margen de maniobrabilidad en América Latina, históricamente una zona de influencia para Estados Unidos. Además, Brasil debe fortalecer su poder material, ya que es un país de considerable riqueza y tamaño, y, por lo tanto, de inte­rés para las grandes potencias. Para lograr una posición de negociación sólida, deben abordarse problemas estructurales como el gasto en defensa y la inversión. Concluimos que, independientemente de si Brasil “elige un lado” o mantiene una posición neutral, el balance interno es necesario para alcanzar sus objetivos.The objective of this paper is to gain insight into Brazil’s role in an unbalanced multi­polar scenario. To achieve this objective, the principal concepts and assumptions of neorealism and offensive neorealism are set forth. It is argued that the optimal strategy for Brazil at this juncture is to pursue inter­nal balancing to enhance its bargaining position among major powers and peer competitors. In this sense, the paper is nor­mative, although its recommendations are derived from the system’s imperatives, such as the vulnerabilities of alliances in a mul­tipolar world. The United States is engaged in pivotal areas in Asia and Europe, which creates a margin of maneuverability in Lat­in America, historically a zone of influ­ence for the United States. Moreover, Brazil must enhance its material strength, as it is a country of considerable richness and size, and thus of interest to great powers. To achieve a strong bargaining position, structural problems such as defense spend­ing and investment must be addressed. We conclude that, regardless of whether Bra­zil “picks a side” or maintains a neutral position, internal balancing is necessary to achieve its objectives.application/pdftext/html10.18601/16577558.n41.132346-21321657-7558https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/handle/001/25294https://doi.org/10.18601/16577558.n41.13spaFacultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionaleshttps://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/oasis/article/download/10037/17542https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/oasis/article/download/10037/17543Núm. 41 , Año 2025 : Enero-Junio29841281OasisAmorim Neto, O. (2011) De Dutra a Lula: a condução e os determinantes da política externa brasileira. Elsevier.Ashford, E., Cooper, E. (2023, October 5). Yes, the world is multipolar: and that isn’t bad news for the United States. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/05/usa-china-multipolar-bipolar-unipolar/.Avila, R. (2014). Innovation and the warlike phenomenon. Austral: Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations, 6(6).Brasil (2020). Livro branco da defesa nacional 2020. https://www.gov.br/defesa/pt-br/assuntos/copy_of_estado-e-defesa/livro_branco_congresso_nacional.pdfBrooks, S., and Wohlforth, W. (2008). World out of balance. Princeton University Press.Campbell, P. (2019) Military Realism. University of Missouri Press.Cepik, M., and Schneider, L. (2010) Kenneth Waltz. In M. Medeiros, M. Costa Lima, R. Villa, and R. Rocha Reis. (Eds.), Os Clássicos das Relações Internacionais (1st ed., Vol. 1, pp. 84- 109). Hucitec.Christensen, T. J., and Snyder, J. (1990). Chain gangs and passed bucks: Predicting alliance patterns in multipolarity. International Organization, 44(2), 137-168.Dawood, L. (2018). China’s military modernisation: international systemic change through internal balancing? Realism in Practice.Diniz, E. P. L. (2017). Brazil’s nuclear submarine: A broader approach to the safeguards issue. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 60(2).Diniz, E. (2010). Defesa, orçamento e projeto de força: O Brasil em perspectiva comparada. In M. C. Cepik (Ed.),Segurança Internacional: práticas, tendências e conceitos. Hucitec, 2010.Elias, N. (1993). O processo civilizador: Formação do estado e civilização. Zahar.Elman, C. (1996). Horses for courses: Why not neorealist theories of foreign policy? Security Studies, 6(1), 7-53.Elman, C. (1999). The logic of emulation: the diffusion of military practices in the international system. Columbia University.International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). (2024). Military Balance 2024. https://www. iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/Herz, J. H. (1950). Idealist internationalism and the security dilemma. World Politics, 2(2), 157-180.Herz, M., Dawood L., and Lage, V.C. (2017). A nuclear submarine in the South Atlantic: The framing of threats and deterrence. Contexto Internacional, 39(2), 329-350.Herz, M. A. (2022). Conservative foreign policy for Brazil. Latin American Policy, 13(2), 376-388.Legro, J. W., and Moravcsik, A. (1999). Is anybody still a realist? International Security, 24(2), 5-55.Lieber, K. (2000). Grasping the technological peace: The offense-defense balance and international security. International Security, 25(1).Malamud, A. (2011). A leader without followers? The growing divergence between the regional and global performance of Brazilian foreign policy. Latin American Politics and Society, 53(3),1-24.Malinski, T. (2008). O Brasil e a ordem mundial multipolar. Revista da Escola Superior de Guerra, 24(49).Mearsheimer, J. J. (2018). The great delusion: Liberal dreams and international realities. Yale University Press.Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). The tragedy of great power politics. W.W Norton & Company.Pádua, L. (n.d.). Para Celso Amorim, o Brasil deve buscar mundo multipolar e não se alinhar a potências. Exame. https://exame.com/ para-celso-amorim-o-brasil-deve-buscar-mundo-multipolar-e-nao-se-alinhar-a-potencias/Parent, J., and Rosato, S. (2015). Balancing in neorealism. International Security, 40(2).Raska, M. (2015). Military innovation in small states: Creating a reverse asymmetry. Routledge.Resende-Santos, A. (2008). Neorealism, states, and modern mass army. Cambridge University Press.Rodriguez. J. C. C. (2012). Chacal ou cordeiro? O Brasil frente aos desafios e oportunidades do sistema internacional. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 55(2), 70-89.Schweller, R., and Pu, X. (2011). After unipolarity: China’s visions of international order in an era of U.S. Decline. International Security, 36(1), 41-72.Soares De Lima, M. R., and Hirst, M. (2006). Brazil as an intermediate state and regional power: Action, choice and responsibilities. International Affairs, 82(1), 21-40.Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). (2022). SIPRI yearbook 2022. Blackwell.Valeriano, B. (2009). The tragedy of offensive realism: Testing aggressive power politics models. International Interactions, 35(2),179- 206.Vasquez, J. A. (2007). The realist paradigm and degenerative versus progressive research programs: An appraisal of neotraditional research on Waltz’s balancing proposition. American Political Science Review, 91(4), 899-912.Villa, R. A. D., and Viana, M. T. (2010). Security issues during Lula’s administration: From the reactive to the assertive approach. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 53, 91– 114.Visentini, P. G. F., and Silva, A. L. R. da. (2010). Brazil and the economic, political, and environmental multilateralism: The Lula years (2003-2010). Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 5, 54-72.Waltz, K. (1979). Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.Waltz, K. (1996). International politics is not foreign policy. Security Studies, 6(1).Wohlforth, W. C. (1999). The stability of a unipolar world. International Security, 24(1), 5-41.Gustavo Fornari Dall’Agnol, Graciele De Conti Pagliari - 2024info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/oasis/article/view/10037Multipolarity;internal balancing;defense;Brazilmultipolaridad;balance interno;defensa;BrasilMultipolarity, Alliances and Internal Balancing: Opportunities for BrazilMultipolarity, Alliances and Internal Balancing: Opportunities for BrazilArtículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleJournal articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPublicationOREORE.xmltext/xml2617https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/bitstreams/426bab3f-0efa-4a49-b99d-ffff0ba8241d/download04c1b1579d6b26063086015ad81da365MD51001/25294oai:bdigital.uexternado.edu.co:001/252942025-04-09 12:18:18.559http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0Gustavo Fornari Dall’Agnol, Graciele De Conti Pagliari - 2024https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.coUniversidad Externado de Colombiametabiblioteca@metabiblioteca.org

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