Optimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options Theory

La terminación anticipada es un mecanismo de compensación contractual implementado en proyectos de infraestructura de app, donde los inversionistas privados tienen derecho a abandonar el proyecto para mitigar riesgos como el de demanda. En este artículo utilizamos la teoría de opciones reales para v...

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Autores:
Zapata Quimbayo, Carlos Andrés
Mejía Veja, Carlos Armando
Tipo de recurso:
Article of journal
Fecha de publicación:
2024
Institución:
Universidad Externado de Colombia
Repositorio:
Biblioteca Digital Universidad Externado de Colombia
Idioma:
spa
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oai:bdigital.uexternado.edu.co:001/15372
Acceso en línea:
https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/handle/001/15372
https://doi.org/10.18601/17941113.n25.06
Palabra clave:
Infrastructure projects;
option to abandon;
early termination mechanism
proyectos de infraestructura;
opción de abandono;
mecanismo de terminación anticipada
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openAccess
License
Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, Carlos Armando Mejía Veja - 2024
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network_acronym_str uexternad2
network_name_str Biblioteca Digital Universidad Externado de Colombia
repository_id_str
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Optimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options Theory
dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv Optimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options Theory
title Optimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options Theory
spellingShingle Optimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options Theory
Infrastructure projects;
option to abandon;
early termination mechanism
proyectos de infraestructura;
opción de abandono;
mecanismo de terminación anticipada
title_short Optimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options Theory
title_full Optimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options Theory
title_fullStr Optimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options Theory
title_full_unstemmed Optimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options Theory
title_sort Optimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options Theory
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Zapata Quimbayo, Carlos Andrés
Mejía Veja, Carlos Armando
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv Zapata Quimbayo, Carlos Andrés
Mejía Veja, Carlos Armando
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Infrastructure projects;
option to abandon;
early termination mechanism
topic Infrastructure projects;
option to abandon;
early termination mechanism
proyectos de infraestructura;
opción de abandono;
mecanismo de terminación anticipada
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv proyectos de infraestructura;
opción de abandono;
mecanismo de terminación anticipada
description La terminación anticipada es un mecanismo de compensación contractual implementado en proyectos de infraestructura de app, donde los inversionistas privados tienen derecho a abandonar el proyecto para mitigar riesgos como el de demanda. En este artículo utilizamos la teoría de opciones reales para valorar la terminación anticipada como una opción de abandono de un proyecto, en el que el riesgo de demanda y la tarifa de compensación se modelan asumiendo procesos estocásticos correlacionados. Así, se implementa el modelo de valo­ración de opciones con una solución analítica y se comparan los resultados con la técnica de simulación Monte Carlo. Los resultados confirman los beneficios que el mecanismo contractual ofrece a los inversionistas privados para mitigar riesgos y mejorar el valor del proyecto.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2024-03-21T11:15:55Z
2024-06-07T07:31:21Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2024-03-21T11:15:55Z
2024-06-07T07:31:21Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2024-03-21
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo de revista
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dc.relation.references.spa.fl_str_mv Ameyaw, E. & Chan, A. (2015). Evaluation and ranking of risk factors in public–private partnership water supply projects in developing countries using fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 42(12), 5102-5116. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2015.02.041
Ashuri, B., Asce, M., Kashani, H., Molenaar, K., Asce, M., Lee, S. & Lu, J. (2012). Risk-neutral pricing approach for evaluating bot highway projects with government minimum revenue guarantee options. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(4), 545-557. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce) co.1943-7862.0000447
Attarzadeh, M., Chua, D., Beer, M., & Abbott, E. (2017). Options-based negotiation management of PPP–BOT infrastructure projects. Construction Management and Economics, 35(11-12), 676-692. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2017.1325962
Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637-659. https://doi.org/10.1142/97898147595 88_0001
Bowe, M., & Lee, D. (2004). Project evaluation in the presence of multiple embedded real options: evidence from the Taiwan High-Speed Rail Project. Journal of Asian Economics, 15(1), 71-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2003.12.001
Brandão, L., & Saraiva, E. (2008). The option value of government guarantees in infrastructure projects. Construction Management and Economics, 26(11), 1171- 1180. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190802428051
Brennan, M., & Schwartz, E. (1985). Evaluating natural resource investments. The Journal of Business, 58(2), 135-157.
Buso, M., Dosi, C., & Moretto, M. (2019). Termination fees and contract design in public-private partnerships. Working paper No. 032.2018. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/191374/1/ndl2018-032.pdf
Cabero, F., Sánchez, A., & Lara, A. (2017). Default and abandonment option in mo¬torway concessions. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 23(1), 04016022. https:// doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)is.1943-555X.0000309
Carbonara, N., & Pellegrino, R. (2018). Revenue guarantee in public–private partnerships: a win–win model. Construction Management and Economics, 1-15. https:// doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2018.1467028
Caselli, S., Marciante, A. & Gatti, S. (2009). Pricing final indemnification payments to private sponsors in project-financed public-private partnerships: An application of real options valuation. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 21(3), 95-106. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6622.2009.00243.x
Cheah, C., & Liu, J. (2006). Valuing governmental support in infrastructure projects as real options using Monte Carlo simulation. Construction Management and Economics, 24(5), 545-54. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190500435572
Clark, E. & Rousseau, P. (2002). Strategic parameters for capital budgeting when abandonment value is stochastic. Applied Financial Economics, 12(2), 123-130. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100110088049
Cox, J., Ross, S., & Rubinstein, M. (1979). Option pricing: A simplified approach. Journal of Financial Economics, 7(3), 229-263. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304- 405X(79)90015-1
Dixit, A., & Pindyck, R. (1994). Investment under Uncertainty. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Feng, Z., Zhang, S., & Gao, Y. (2015). Modelling the impact of government guarantees on toll charge, road quality and capacity for Build-Operate-Transfer (bot) road projects. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 78(1), 54-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.tra.2015.05.006
Galilea, P., & Medda, F. (2010). Does the political and economic context influence the success of a transport project? An analysis of transport public–private partnerships. Research in Transportation Economics, 30(1), 102–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.retrec.2010.10.011
Garvin, M., & Cheah, C. (2004). Valuation techniques for infrastructure investment decisions. Construction Management and Economics, 22(4), 373-83. https://doi. org/ 10.1080/01446190310001649010
Gatti, S. (2008). Project Finance in Theory and Practice. Project Finance in Theory and Practice. Oxford: Academic Press.
Giraldo, A. (2019). Valoración del mecanismo de terminación anticipada en los con¬tratos de concesión 4G en Colombia. odeon, (16), 67-95. https://doi.org/10.18601/ 17941113.n16.04
Grimsey, D., & Lewis, M. (2002). Evaluating the risks of public private partnerships for infrastructure projects. International Journal of Project Management, 20(2), 107-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(00)00040-5
Guasch, J., Laffont, J., & Straub, S. (2007). Concessions of infrastructure in Latin America: Government-led renegotiation. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(7), 1267-1294. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.987
Guasch, J. L., & Straub, S. (2009). Corruption and concession renegotiations.: Evidence from the water and transport sectors in Latin America. Utilities Policy, 17(2), 185-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2008.07.003
Ho, P., & Liu, L. (2002). An option pricing-based model for evaluating the financial viability of privatized infrastructure projects. Construction Management and Economics, 20(2), 143-156. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190110110533
Igrejas, R., Cordeiro, L. & Brandão, L. (2017). When is abandonment not an option? Dealing with PPP contract and government interests. Advances in Public-Private Partnerships–Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Public-Private Partnerships (pp. 486-498). https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784480267.038
Iossa, E., & Martimort, D. (2016). Corruption in PPPS, incentives and contract incom-pleteness. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 44(1), 85-100. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2015.10.007
Iyer, K., & Sagheer, M. (2011). A real options-based traffic risk mitigation model for build-operate-transfer highway projects in India. Construction Management and Economics, 29(8), 771-9. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2011.597412
Liu, J., Love, P., Davis, P., Smith, J., & Regan, M. (2015). Conceptual framework for the performance measurement of public-private partnerships. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 21(1), 04014023. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)IS.1943-555X.0000210
Liu, J., Yu, X. & Cheah, C. (2014). Evaluation of restrictive competition in PPP projects using real option approach. International Journal of Project Management, 32(3), 473-481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.07.007
Liu, J., Gao, R., & Cheah, C. (2017). Pricing mechanism of early termination of PPP projects based on real option theory. Journal of Management in Engineering, 33(6), 04017035. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)me.1943-5479.0000556
Longstaff, F., & Schwartz, E. (2001). Valuing American options by simulation: a simple least-squares approach. The Review of Financial Studies, 14(1), 113-147. https:// doi.org/ 10.1093/rfs/14.1.113
Martins, J., Marques, R., & Cruz, C. (2015). Real options in infrastructure: Revisiting the literature. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 21(1), 04014026. https://doi.org/ 10.1061/(ASCE)is.1943-555X.0000188
Merton, R. (1973). The theory of rational option pricing. The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 4(1), 141-183. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003143
McDonald, R., & Siegel, D. (1986). The value of waiting to invest. Quarterly Journal Economics, 101(4), 707-727. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884175
Myers, S., & Majd, S. (2001). Abandonment value and project life. In Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: Classical Readings and Recent Contributions. Cambridge, 295-312.
Scott, R., & Triantis, G. (2004). Embedded Options and the Case against Compensation in Contract Law. Columbia Law Review, 104, 1428.
Song, J., Yu, Y., Jin, L., & Feng, Z. (2018). Early termination compensation under demand uncertainty in public-private partnership projects. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(6), 532-543. https://doi.org/10.3846/ ijspm.2018.6049
Talus, K. (2009). Public–private partnerships in energy–termination of public service concessions and administrative acts in Europe. Journal of World Energy Law & Business, 2(1), 43-67. https://doi.org/10.1093/jwelb/jwn023
Trigeorgis, L. (1996). Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
Xiong, W., & Han, Y. (2021). Incentives of Early Termination Compensation in Public–Private Partnership Projects. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1109/tem.2021.3074662
Xiong, W., Zhang, X., & Chen, H. (2015). Early-termination compensation in public– private partnership projects. Journal of Construction Engineering & Management, 142(4), 04015098. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0001084
Wang, S., Dulaimi, M. & Aguria, M. (2004). Risk management framework for construction projects in developing countries. Construction Management and Economics, 22(3), 237-252. https://doi.org/10.1080/0144619032000124689
Yescombe, E. R. (2002). Principles of Project Finance. Academic Press.
Zhang, X., & Xiong, W. (2015). Renegotiation and early-termination in public private partnership. International Journal of Architecture, Engineering & Construction, 4(4), 204-213. http://dx.doi.org/10.7492/ijaec.2015.021
Zapata Quimbayo, C.A., & Mejía Vega, C. A. (2022). Credit risk in infrastructure PPP projects under the real options approach. Construction Management and Economics 41(4), 293-306. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2022.2151023
dc.rights.spa.fl_str_mv Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, Carlos Armando Mejía Veja - 2024
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spelling Zapata Quimbayo, Carlos AndrésMejía Veja, Carlos Armando2024-03-21T11:15:55Z2024-06-07T07:31:21Z2024-03-21T11:15:55Z2024-06-07T07:31:21Z2024-03-21La terminación anticipada es un mecanismo de compensación contractual implementado en proyectos de infraestructura de app, donde los inversionistas privados tienen derecho a abandonar el proyecto para mitigar riesgos como el de demanda. En este artículo utilizamos la teoría de opciones reales para valorar la terminación anticipada como una opción de abandono de un proyecto, en el que el riesgo de demanda y la tarifa de compensación se modelan asumiendo procesos estocásticos correlacionados. Así, se implementa el modelo de valo­ración de opciones con una solución analítica y se comparan los resultados con la técnica de simulación Monte Carlo. Los resultados confirman los beneficios que el mecanismo contractual ofrece a los inversionistas privados para mitigar riesgos y mejorar el valor del proyecto.Early termination is a contractual compensation mechanism implemented in PPP infrastructure projects where private investors have the right to abandon the project to mitigate risks such as traffic risk. In this paper we used the Real Options Theory to value early termination as an option to abandon a project where both the traffic risk and the compensation fee are modelled assuming correlated stochastic processes. The option pricing model was implemented with an analytical solution and results were compared with the Monte Carlo simulation technique. The results confirm the benefits that the contractual mechanism offers to private investors to mitigate risks, while at the same time improving a project’s value.application/pdf10.18601/17941113.n25.062346-21401794-1113https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/handle/001/15372https://doi.org/10.18601/17941113.n25.06spaUniversidad Externado de Colombiahttps://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/download/9339/15632Núm. 25 , Año 2023 : Julio-Diciembre14125117ODEONAmeyaw, E. & Chan, A. (2015). Evaluation and ranking of risk factors in public–private partnership water supply projects in developing countries using fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 42(12), 5102-5116. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2015.02.041Ashuri, B., Asce, M., Kashani, H., Molenaar, K., Asce, M., Lee, S. & Lu, J. (2012). Risk-neutral pricing approach for evaluating bot highway projects with government minimum revenue guarantee options. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(4), 545-557. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce) co.1943-7862.0000447Attarzadeh, M., Chua, D., Beer, M., & Abbott, E. (2017). Options-based negotiation management of PPP–BOT infrastructure projects. Construction Management and Economics, 35(11-12), 676-692. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2017.1325962Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637-659. https://doi.org/10.1142/97898147595 88_0001Bowe, M., & Lee, D. (2004). Project evaluation in the presence of multiple embedded real options: evidence from the Taiwan High-Speed Rail Project. Journal of Asian Economics, 15(1), 71-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2003.12.001Brandão, L., & Saraiva, E. (2008). The option value of government guarantees in infrastructure projects. Construction Management and Economics, 26(11), 1171- 1180. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190802428051Brennan, M., & Schwartz, E. (1985). Evaluating natural resource investments. The Journal of Business, 58(2), 135-157.Buso, M., Dosi, C., & Moretto, M. (2019). Termination fees and contract design in public-private partnerships. Working paper No. 032.2018. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/191374/1/ndl2018-032.pdfCabero, F., Sánchez, A., & Lara, A. (2017). Default and abandonment option in mo¬torway concessions. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 23(1), 04016022. https:// doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)is.1943-555X.0000309Carbonara, N., & Pellegrino, R. (2018). Revenue guarantee in public–private partnerships: a win–win model. Construction Management and Economics, 1-15. https:// doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2018.1467028Caselli, S., Marciante, A. & Gatti, S. (2009). Pricing final indemnification payments to private sponsors in project-financed public-private partnerships: An application of real options valuation. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 21(3), 95-106. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6622.2009.00243.xCheah, C., & Liu, J. (2006). Valuing governmental support in infrastructure projects as real options using Monte Carlo simulation. Construction Management and Economics, 24(5), 545-54. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190500435572Clark, E. & Rousseau, P. (2002). Strategic parameters for capital budgeting when abandonment value is stochastic. Applied Financial Economics, 12(2), 123-130. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100110088049Cox, J., Ross, S., & Rubinstein, M. (1979). Option pricing: A simplified approach. Journal of Financial Economics, 7(3), 229-263. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304- 405X(79)90015-1Dixit, A., & Pindyck, R. (1994). Investment under Uncertainty. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.Feng, Z., Zhang, S., & Gao, Y. (2015). Modelling the impact of government guarantees on toll charge, road quality and capacity for Build-Operate-Transfer (bot) road projects. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 78(1), 54-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.tra.2015.05.006Galilea, P., & Medda, F. (2010). Does the political and economic context influence the success of a transport project? An analysis of transport public–private partnerships. Research in Transportation Economics, 30(1), 102–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.retrec.2010.10.011Garvin, M., & Cheah, C. (2004). Valuation techniques for infrastructure investment decisions. Construction Management and Economics, 22(4), 373-83. https://doi. org/ 10.1080/01446190310001649010Gatti, S. (2008). Project Finance in Theory and Practice. Project Finance in Theory and Practice. Oxford: Academic Press.Giraldo, A. (2019). Valoración del mecanismo de terminación anticipada en los con¬tratos de concesión 4G en Colombia. odeon, (16), 67-95. https://doi.org/10.18601/ 17941113.n16.04Grimsey, D., & Lewis, M. (2002). Evaluating the risks of public private partnerships for infrastructure projects. International Journal of Project Management, 20(2), 107-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(00)00040-5Guasch, J., Laffont, J., & Straub, S. (2007). Concessions of infrastructure in Latin America: Government-led renegotiation. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(7), 1267-1294. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.987Guasch, J. L., & Straub, S. (2009). Corruption and concession renegotiations.: Evidence from the water and transport sectors in Latin America. Utilities Policy, 17(2), 185-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2008.07.003Ho, P., & Liu, L. (2002). An option pricing-based model for evaluating the financial viability of privatized infrastructure projects. Construction Management and Economics, 20(2), 143-156. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190110110533Igrejas, R., Cordeiro, L. & Brandão, L. (2017). When is abandonment not an option? Dealing with PPP contract and government interests. Advances in Public-Private Partnerships–Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Public-Private Partnerships (pp. 486-498). https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784480267.038Iossa, E., & Martimort, D. (2016). Corruption in PPPS, incentives and contract incom-pleteness. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 44(1), 85-100. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2015.10.007Iyer, K., & Sagheer, M. (2011). A real options-based traffic risk mitigation model for build-operate-transfer highway projects in India. Construction Management and Economics, 29(8), 771-9. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2011.597412Liu, J., Love, P., Davis, P., Smith, J., & Regan, M. (2015). Conceptual framework for the performance measurement of public-private partnerships. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 21(1), 04014023. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)IS.1943-555X.0000210Liu, J., Yu, X. & Cheah, C. (2014). Evaluation of restrictive competition in PPP projects using real option approach. International Journal of Project Management, 32(3), 473-481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.07.007Liu, J., Gao, R., & Cheah, C. (2017). Pricing mechanism of early termination of PPP projects based on real option theory. Journal of Management in Engineering, 33(6), 04017035. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)me.1943-5479.0000556Longstaff, F., & Schwartz, E. (2001). Valuing American options by simulation: a simple least-squares approach. The Review of Financial Studies, 14(1), 113-147. https:// doi.org/ 10.1093/rfs/14.1.113Martins, J., Marques, R., & Cruz, C. (2015). Real options in infrastructure: Revisiting the literature. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 21(1), 04014026. https://doi.org/ 10.1061/(ASCE)is.1943-555X.0000188Merton, R. (1973). The theory of rational option pricing. The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 4(1), 141-183. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003143McDonald, R., & Siegel, D. (1986). The value of waiting to invest. 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Construction Management and Economics 41(4), 293-306. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2022.2151023Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, Carlos Armando Mejía Veja - 2024info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/view/9339Infrastructure projects;option to abandon;early termination mechanismproyectos de infraestructura;opción de abandono;mecanismo de terminación anticipadaOptimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options TheoryOptimal Early Termination in PPP Projects Based on Real Options TheoryArtículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleJournal articlehttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARTREFinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPublicationOREORE.xmltext/xml2571https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/bitstreams/ac5a96ab-98c5-4e02-9974-a545cdbe9df0/download0a084764267452aeded75bbb7656df66MD51001/15372oai:bdigital.uexternado.edu.co:001/153722024-06-07 02:31:21.261http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, Carlos Armando Mejía Veja - 2024https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.coUniversidad Externado de Colombiametabiblioteca@metabiblioteca.org