La pésima economía neoclásica del cambio climático

Las predicciones de los economistas del daño a la economía causado por el cambio climático son demasiado optimistas en comparación con las advertencias de los científicos sobre el daño a la biosfera. Esto se debe ante todo a que los economistas predicen los daños usando tres métodos espurios: supone...

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Autores:: Keen, Steve

Tipo de recurso:: Article of journal

Fecha de publicación:: 2020

Institución:: Universidad Externado de Colombia

Repositorio:: Biblioteca Digital Universidad Externado de Colombia

Idioma:: spa

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dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv	La pésima economía neoclásica del cambio climático
dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv	The appallingly bad neoclassical economics of climate change
title	La pésima economía neoclásica del cambio climático
spellingShingle	La pésima economía neoclásica del cambio climático PIB, global warming, change D31 E44 Q51 PIB, calentamiento global, cambio climático D31 E44 Q51 PIB, aquecimento global, mudança D31 E44 Q51
title_short	La pésima economía neoclásica del cambio climático
title_full	La pésima economía neoclásica del cambio climático
title_fullStr	La pésima economía neoclásica del cambio climático
title_full_unstemmed	La pésima economía neoclásica del cambio climático
title_sort	La pésima economía neoclásica del cambio climático
dc.creator.fl_str_mv	Keen, Steve
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv	Keen, Steve
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv	PIB, global warming, change D31 E44 Q51
topic	PIB, global warming, change D31 E44 Q51 PIB, calentamiento global, cambio climático D31 E44 Q51 PIB, aquecimento global, mudança D31 E44 Q51
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv	PIB, calentamiento global, cambio climático D31 E44 Q51 PIB, aquecimento global, mudança D31 E44 Q51
description	Las predicciones de los economistas del daño a la economía causado por el cambio climático son demasiado optimistas en comparación con las advertencias de los científicos sobre el daño a la biosfera. Esto se debe ante todo a que los economistas predicen los daños usando tres métodos espurios: suponen que un 90% del PIB no será afectado por el cambio climático porque ocurre puertas adentro; usan la relación actual entre temperatura y PIB como proxy del impacto del calentamiento global, y encuestas que diluyen las advertencias extremas de los científicos con las expectativas optimistas de los economistas. Nordhaus ha malinterpretado la literatura científica para justificar el uso de una función suave que describa el daño del cambio climático al PIB. Cuando se corrigen estos errores los daños pueden ser al menos un orden de magnitud peores que los que predicen los economistas y tan graves que amenazan la supervivencia de la civilización humana.
publishDate	2020
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv	2020-12-14 00:00:00 2022-09-09T21:18:35Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv	2020-12-14 00:00:00 2022-09-09T21:18:35Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv	2020-12-14
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv	Artículo de revista
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dc.type.content.spa.fl_str_mv	Text
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dc.type.local.eng.fl_str_mv	Journal article
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dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv	10.18601/01245996.v23n44.02
dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv	2346-2450
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv	0124-5996
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv	https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/handle/001/12251
dc.identifier.url.none.fl_str_mv	https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v23n44.02
identifier_str_mv	10.18601/01245996.v23n44.02 2346-2450 0124-5996
url	https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/handle/001/12251 https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v23n44.02
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv	spa
language	spa
dc.relation.bitstream.none.fl_str_mv	https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/ecoins/article/download/7005/9570
dc.relation.citationedition.spa.fl_str_mv	Núm. 44 , Año 2021 : Enero-Junio
dc.relation.citationendpage.none.fl_str_mv	52
dc.relation.citationissue.spa.fl_str_mv	44
dc.relation.citationstartpage.none.fl_str_mv	13
dc.relation.citationvolume.spa.fl_str_mv	23
dc.relation.ispartofjournal.spa.fl_str_mv	Revista de Economía Institucional
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Investment evaluation under uncertainty. Financial Management, 8(2), 66-81.<br>Bosello, F., Eboli, F. et al. (2012). Assessing the economic impacts of climate change. An updated CGE point of view. Working paper.<br>Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M. et al. (2015). Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production: Supplementary information. Nature, 527(7577), 235-239.<br>Cai, Y., Lenton, T. M. et al. (2016). Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encouragerapid CO2 emission reduction. Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 520 - 525.<br>Cline, W. (1996). The impact of global warming on agriculture: Comment. American Economic Review, 86(5), 1309-1311.<br>Darwin, R. (1999). The impact of global warming on agriculture: A Ricardian analysis: Comment. American Economic Review, 89(4), 1049-1052.<br>DeCanio, S. J. (2003). Economic models of climate change: A critique. Londres: Palgrave Macmillan.<br>Fankhauser, S. (1995). Valuing climate change: The economics of the greenhouse. Londres: Earthscan.<br>Field, C. B., Barros, V. R. et al. (2014). IPCC, 2014: Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working Group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Nueva York: Cambridge University Press.<br>Forrester, J. W. (1971). World dynamics. Londres: Wright-Allen Press.<br>Forrester, J. W. (1973). World dynamics. Londres: Wright-Allen Press.<br>Friedman, M. (1953). The methodology of positive economics. En M.<br>Friedman (ed.), Essays in positive economics (pp. 3-43). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.<br>Gelman, A. (2014). A whole fleet of gremlins: Looking more carefully at Richard Tol’s twice-corrected paper, “The economic effects of climate change”, [https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2014/05/27/whole-fleet-gremlins-looking-carefully-richard-tols-twicecorrectedpaper-economic-effects-climate-change/].<br>Gelman, A. (2015). More gremlins: “Instead, he simply pretended the other two estimates did not exist. That isinexcusable”. Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, [https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2015/07/23/instead-he-simply-pretended-the-othertwo-estimates-did-not-exist-that-is-inexcusable/].<br>Gelman, A. (2019). The climate economics echo chamber: Gremlins and the people (including a Nobel prize winner) who support them [https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/11/01/the-environmentaleconomics-echo-chamber-gremlins-and-the-people-including-a-nobelprize-winner-who-support-them/].<br>Gills, B. y Morgan, J. (2019). Global climate emergency: After COP24, climate science, urgency, and the threat to humanity. Globalizations, 17(6), 885-902.<br>Gills, B. (2020). Deep restoration: From the great implosion to the greatawakening. Globalizations, 17(4), 577-579.<br>Hickel, J. (2018). The Nobel prize for climate catastrophe. 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dc.rights.spa.fl_str_mv	Steve Keen - 2020
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spelling	Keen, Steveb7e34e4f-b4e0-44bc-8165-81f4c3da811c2020-12-14 00:00:002022-09-09T21:18:35Z2020-12-14 00:00:002022-09-09T21:18:35Z2020-12-14Las predicciones de los economistas del daño a la economía causado por el cambio climático son demasiado optimistas en comparación con las advertencias de los científicos sobre el daño a la biosfera. Esto se debe ante todo a que los economistas predicen los daños usando tres métodos espurios: suponen que un 90% del PIB no será afectado por el cambio climático porque ocurre puertas adentro; usan la relación actual entre temperatura y PIB como proxy del impacto del calentamiento global, y encuestas que diluyen las advertencias extremas de los científicos con las expectativas optimistas de los economistas. Nordhaus ha malinterpretado la literatura científica para justificar el uso de una función suave que describa el daño del cambio climático al PIB. Cuando se corrigen estos errores los daños pueden ser al menos un orden de magnitud peores que los que predicen los economistas y tan graves que amenazan la supervivencia de la civilización humana.Forecasts by economists of the economic damage from climate change have been notably sanguine, compared to warnings by scientists about damage to the biosphere. This is because economists made their own predictions of damages, using three spurious methods: assuming that about 90% of GDP will be unaffected by climate change, because it happens indoors; using the relationship between temperature and GDP today as a proxy for the impact of global warming over time; and using surveys that diluted extreme warnings from scientists with optimistic expectations from economists. Nordhaus has misrepresented the scientific literature to justify the using a smooth function to describe the damage to GDP from climate change. Correcting for these errors makes it feasible that the economic damages from climate change are at least an order of magnitude worse than forecast by economists, and may be so great as to threaten the survival of human civilization.application/pdf10.18601/01245996.v23n44.022346-24500124-5996https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/handle/001/12251https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v23n44.02spaUniversidad Externado de Colombiahttps://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/ecoins/article/download/7005/9570Núm. 44 , Año 2021 : Enero-Junio52441323Revista de Economía Institucional<p>Amen, M., Bosman, M. M. et al. (2008). Editorial: The urgent need for global action to combat climate change. Globalizations, 5(1), 49-52.<br>Arent, D. J., Tol, R. S. et al. (2014a). Key economic sectors and services – supplementary material. En C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, et al. (eds.), Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working Group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Nueva York: Cambridge University Press.<br>Arent, D. J., Tol, R. S. et al. (2014b). Key economic sectors and services. En C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, et al. (eds.), Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working Group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (pp. 659-708). Nueva York: Cambridge University Press.<br>Blatt, J. M. (1979). Investment evaluation under uncertainty. Financial Management, 8(2), 66-81.<br>Bosello, F., Eboli, F. et al. (2012). Assessing the economic impacts of climate change. An updated CGE point of view. Working paper.<br>Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M. et al. (2015). Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production: Supplementary information. Nature, 527(7577), 235-239.<br>Cai, Y., Lenton, T. M. et al. (2016). Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encouragerapid CO2 emission reduction. Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 520 - 525.<br>Cline, W. (1996). The impact of global warming on agriculture: Comment. American Economic Review, 86(5), 1309-1311.<br>Darwin, R. (1999). The impact of global warming on agriculture: A Ricardian analysis: Comment. American Economic Review, 89(4), 1049-1052.<br>DeCanio, S. J. (2003). Economic models of climate change: A critique. Londres: Palgrave Macmillan.<br>Fankhauser, S. (1995). Valuing climate change: The economics of the greenhouse. Londres: Earthscan.<br>Field, C. B., Barros, V. R. et al. (2014). IPCC, 2014: Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working Group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Nueva York: Cambridge University Press.<br>Forrester, J. W. (1971). World dynamics. Londres: Wright-Allen Press.<br>Forrester, J. W. (1973). World dynamics. Londres: Wright-Allen Press.<br>Friedman, M. (1953). The methodology of positive economics. En M.<br>Friedman (ed.), Essays in positive economics (pp. 3-43). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.<br>Gelman, A. (2014). A whole fleet of gremlins: Looking more carefully at Richard Tol’s twice-corrected paper, “The economic effects of climate change”, [https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2014/05/27/whole-fleet-gremlins-looking-carefully-richard-tols-twicecorrectedpaper-economic-effects-climate-change/].<br>Gelman, A. (2015). More gremlins: “Instead, he simply pretended the other two estimates did not exist. That isinexcusable”. Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, [https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2015/07/23/instead-he-simply-pretended-the-othertwo-estimates-did-not-exist-that-is-inexcusable/].<br>Gelman, A. (2019). The climate economics echo chamber: Gremlins and the people (including a Nobel prize winner) who support them [https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/11/01/the-environmentaleconomics-echo-chamber-gremlins-and-the-people-including-a-nobelprize-winner-who-support-them/].<br>Gills, B. y Morgan, J. (2019). Global climate emergency: After COP24, climate science, urgency, and the threat to humanity. Globalizations, 17(6), 885-902.<br>Gills, B. (2020). Deep restoration: From the great implosion to the greatawakening. Globalizations, 17(4), 577-579.<br>Hickel, J. (2018). The Nobel prize for climate catastrophe. Foreign Policy, [https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/06/the-nobel-prize-for-climatecatastrophe/].<br>Hope, C. (2006). The marginal impact of CO2 from PAGE2002: An integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC’s five reasons for concern. Integrated Assessment, 6(1), 19-56.<br>Kahn, M. E., Mohaddes, K. et al. (2019). 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Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements. Nature Communications, 10(1), 1900.<br><br></p>Steve Keen - 2020info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/ecoins/article/view/7005PIB, global warming, changeD31E44Q51PIB, calentamiento global, cambio climáticoD31E44Q51PIB, aquecimento global, mudançaD31E44Q51La pésima economía neoclásica del cambio climáticoThe appallingly bad neoclassical economics of climate changeArtículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleJournal articlehttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARTREFinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPublicationOREORE.xmltext/xml2470https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.co/bitstreams/7b7721a4-0ab7-4930-81e5-0d98573dd2e6/download1648bb209eebb2197bb701896d7d44f2MD51001/12251oai:bdigital.uexternado.edu.co:001/122512023-08-14 15:16:57.571http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0Steve Keen - 2020https://bdigital.uexternado.edu.coUniversidad Externado de Colombiametabiblioteca@metabiblioteca.org

La pésima economía neoclásica del cambio climático

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