Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function

Motorcyclists account for more than 380 000 deaths annually worldwide from road tra c accidents. Motorcyclists are the most vulnerable road users worldwide to road safety (28% of global fatalities), together with cyclists and pedestrians. Approximately 80% of deaths are from low- or middle- income c...

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Autores:
Ospina-Mateus, Holman
Quintana Jiménez, Leonardo Augusto
López Valdés, Francisco J.
Sankar Sana, Shib
Tipo de recurso:
Fecha de publicación:
2021
Institución:
Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar
Repositorio:
Repositorio Institucional UTB
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repositorio.utb.edu.co:20.500.12585/10410
Acceso en línea:
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12585/10410
https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055
Palabra clave:
Motorcycle, crashes
Prone-section
Safety performance function
Negative binomial regression
Empirical Bayesian approach
LEMB
Rights
openAccess
License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function
title Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function
spellingShingle Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function
Motorcycle, crashes
Prone-section
Safety performance function
Negative binomial regression
Empirical Bayesian approach
LEMB
title_short Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function
title_full Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function
title_fullStr Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function
title_sort Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Ospina-Mateus, Holman
Quintana Jiménez, Leonardo Augusto
López Valdés, Francisco J.
Sankar Sana, Shib
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv Ospina-Mateus, Holman
Quintana Jiménez, Leonardo Augusto
López Valdés, Francisco J.
Sankar Sana, Shib
dc.subject.keywords.spa.fl_str_mv Motorcycle, crashes
Prone-section
Safety performance function
Negative binomial regression
Empirical Bayesian approach
topic Motorcycle, crashes
Prone-section
Safety performance function
Negative binomial regression
Empirical Bayesian approach
LEMB
dc.subject.armarc.none.fl_str_mv LEMB
description Motorcyclists account for more than 380 000 deaths annually worldwide from road tra c accidents. Motorcyclists are the most vulnerable road users worldwide to road safety (28% of global fatalities), together with cyclists and pedestrians. Approximately 80% of deaths are from low- or middle- income countries. Colombia has a rate of 9.7 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants, which places it 10th in the world. Motorcycles in Colombia correspond to 57% of the eet and generate an average of 51% of fatalities per year. This study aims to identify signi cant factors of the environment, tra c volume, and infrastructure to predict the number of accidents per year focused only on motorcyclists. The prediction model used a negative binomial regression for the de nition of a Safety Performance Function (SPF) for motorcyclists. In the second stage, Bayes' empirical approach is implemented to identify motorcycle crash-prone road sections. The study is applied in Cartagena, one of the capital cities with more tra c crashes and motorcyclists dedicated to informal transportation (motorcycle taxi riders) in Colombia. The data of 2884 motorcycle crashes between 2016 and 2017 are analyzed. The proposed model identi es that crashes of motorcyclists per kilometer have signi cant factors such as the average volume of daily motorcyclist tra c, the number of accesses (intersections) per kilometer, commercial areas, and the type of road and it identi es 55 critical accident-prone sections. The research evidences coherent and consistent results with previous studies and requires e ective countermeasures for the bene t of road safety for motorcyclists.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2021-04-05
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2022-01-27T14:01:01Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2022-01-27T14:01:01Z
dc.date.submitted.none.fl_str_mv 2022-01-25
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dc.identifier.citation.spa.fl_str_mv Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function Holman Ospina-Mateus, Leonardo Augusto Quintana Jiménez, Francisco J. Lopez-Valdes and Shib Sankar Sana RAIRO-Oper. Res., 55 3 (2021) 1257-1278 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12585/10410
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055
dc.identifier.instname.spa.fl_str_mv Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar
dc.identifier.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv Repositorio Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar
identifier_str_mv Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function Holman Ospina-Mateus, Leonardo Augusto Quintana Jiménez, Francisco J. Lopez-Valdes and Shib Sankar Sana RAIRO-Oper. Res., 55 3 (2021) 1257-1278 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055
Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar
Repositorio Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12585/10410
https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
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dc.rights.cc.*.fl_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.extent.none.fl_str_mv 22 Páginas
dc.format.mimetype.spa.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.coverage.spatial.none.fl_str_mv Colombia
dc.publisher.place.spa.fl_str_mv Cartagena de Indias
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv RAIRO-Oper. Res - vol. 55, n° 3 (2021).
institution Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar
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spelling Ospina-Mateus, Holman1b4b1bc0-3606-4c14-bb13-dbc9d4251891Quintana Jiménez, Leonardo Augusto7b85dfbe-d700-457f-a814-09cf0ab19e56López Valdés, Francisco J.5a4268e2-55b2-412f-814e-1a12bd7d3511Sankar Sana, Shibd10ac6cd-87f8-493f-80ec-cf649edaf60cColombia2022-01-27T14:01:01Z2022-01-27T14:01:01Z2021-04-052022-01-25Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function Holman Ospina-Mateus, Leonardo Augusto Quintana Jiménez, Francisco J. Lopez-Valdes and Shib Sankar Sana RAIRO-Oper. Res., 55 3 (2021) 1257-1278 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12585/10410https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055Universidad Tecnológica de BolívarRepositorio Universidad Tecnológica de BolívarMotorcyclists account for more than 380 000 deaths annually worldwide from road tra c accidents. Motorcyclists are the most vulnerable road users worldwide to road safety (28% of global fatalities), together with cyclists and pedestrians. Approximately 80% of deaths are from low- or middle- income countries. Colombia has a rate of 9.7 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants, which places it 10th in the world. Motorcycles in Colombia correspond to 57% of the eet and generate an average of 51% of fatalities per year. This study aims to identify signi cant factors of the environment, tra c volume, and infrastructure to predict the number of accidents per year focused only on motorcyclists. The prediction model used a negative binomial regression for the de nition of a Safety Performance Function (SPF) for motorcyclists. In the second stage, Bayes' empirical approach is implemented to identify motorcycle crash-prone road sections. The study is applied in Cartagena, one of the capital cities with more tra c crashes and motorcyclists dedicated to informal transportation (motorcycle taxi riders) in Colombia. The data of 2884 motorcycle crashes between 2016 and 2017 are analyzed. The proposed model identi es that crashes of motorcyclists per kilometer have signi cant factors such as the average volume of daily motorcyclist tra c, the number of accesses (intersections) per kilometer, commercial areas, and the type of road and it identi es 55 critical accident-prone sections. The research evidences coherent and consistent results with previous studies and requires e ective countermeasures for the bene t of road safety for motorcyclists.22 Páginasapplication/pdfenghttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacionalhttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2RAIRO-Oper. Res - vol. 55, n° 3 (2021).Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance functioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Motorcycle, crashesProne-sectionSafety performance functionNegative binomial regressionEmpirical Bayesian approachLEMBCartagena de IndiasAASHTO, The Highway Safety Manual. American Association of State Highway Transportation Professionals, Washington, DC, USA 529 (2010).M.A. Abdel-Aty and A.E. Radwan, Modeling tra c accident occurrence and involvement. Accident Anal. Prev. 32 (2000) 633{642.M.M. Abdul Manan, T. Jonsson and A. V arhelyi, Development of a safety performance function for motorcycle accident fatalities on Malaysian primary roads. Safety Sci. 60 (2013) 13{20.W. Ackaah and M. Salifu, Crash prediction model for two-lane rural highways in the Ashanti region of Ghana. IATSS Res. 35 (2011) 34{40.A.P. Afghari, M.M. Haque, S. 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