Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function
Motorcyclists account for more than 380 000 deaths annually worldwide from road tra c accidents. Motorcyclists are the most vulnerable road users worldwide to road safety (28% of global fatalities), together with cyclists and pedestrians. Approximately 80% of deaths are from low- or middle- income c...
- Autores:
-
Ospina-Mateus, Holman
Quintana Jiménez, Leonardo Augusto
López Valdés, Francisco J.
Sankar Sana, Shib
- Tipo de recurso:
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2021
- Institución:
- Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio Institucional UTB
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.utb.edu.co:20.500.12585/10410
- Palabra clave:
- Motorcycle, crashes
Prone-section
Safety performance function
Negative binomial regression
Empirical Bayesian approach
LEMB
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function |
title |
Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function |
spellingShingle |
Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function Motorcycle, crashes Prone-section Safety performance function Negative binomial regression Empirical Bayesian approach LEMB |
title_short |
Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function |
title_full |
Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function |
title_fullStr |
Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function |
title_full_unstemmed |
Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function |
title_sort |
Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function |
dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Ospina-Mateus, Holman Quintana Jiménez, Leonardo Augusto López Valdés, Francisco J. Sankar Sana, Shib |
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Ospina-Mateus, Holman Quintana Jiménez, Leonardo Augusto López Valdés, Francisco J. Sankar Sana, Shib |
dc.subject.keywords.spa.fl_str_mv |
Motorcycle, crashes Prone-section Safety performance function Negative binomial regression Empirical Bayesian approach |
topic |
Motorcycle, crashes Prone-section Safety performance function Negative binomial regression Empirical Bayesian approach LEMB |
dc.subject.armarc.none.fl_str_mv |
LEMB |
description |
Motorcyclists account for more than 380 000 deaths annually worldwide from road tra c accidents. Motorcyclists are the most vulnerable road users worldwide to road safety (28% of global fatalities), together with cyclists and pedestrians. Approximately 80% of deaths are from low- or middle- income countries. Colombia has a rate of 9.7 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants, which places it 10th in the world. Motorcycles in Colombia correspond to 57% of the eet and generate an average of 51% of fatalities per year. This study aims to identify signi cant factors of the environment, tra c volume, and infrastructure to predict the number of accidents per year focused only on motorcyclists. The prediction model used a negative binomial regression for the de nition of a Safety Performance Function (SPF) for motorcyclists. In the second stage, Bayes' empirical approach is implemented to identify motorcycle crash-prone road sections. The study is applied in Cartagena, one of the capital cities with more tra c crashes and motorcyclists dedicated to informal transportation (motorcycle taxi riders) in Colombia. The data of 2884 motorcycle crashes between 2016 and 2017 are analyzed. The proposed model identi es that crashes of motorcyclists per kilometer have signi cant factors such as the average volume of daily motorcyclist tra c, the number of accesses (intersections) per kilometer, commercial areas, and the type of road and it identi es 55 critical accident-prone sections. The research evidences coherent and consistent results with previous studies and requires e ective countermeasures for the bene t of road safety for motorcyclists. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-04-05 |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-01-27T14:01:01Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-01-27T14:01:01Z |
dc.date.submitted.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-01-25 |
dc.type.driver.spa.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.hasversion.spa.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
dc.type.spa.spa.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 |
dc.identifier.citation.spa.fl_str_mv |
Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function Holman Ospina-Mateus, Leonardo Augusto Quintana Jiménez, Francisco J. Lopez-Valdes and Shib Sankar Sana RAIRO-Oper. Res., 55 3 (2021) 1257-1278 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055 |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12585/10410 |
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055 |
dc.identifier.instname.spa.fl_str_mv |
Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar |
dc.identifier.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv |
Repositorio Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar |
identifier_str_mv |
Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function Holman Ospina-Mateus, Leonardo Augusto Quintana Jiménez, Francisco J. Lopez-Valdes and Shib Sankar Sana RAIRO-Oper. Res., 55 3 (2021) 1257-1278 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055 Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar Repositorio Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12585/10410 https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055 |
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
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openAccess |
dc.format.extent.none.fl_str_mv |
22 Páginas |
dc.format.mimetype.spa.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.coverage.spatial.none.fl_str_mv |
Colombia |
dc.publisher.place.spa.fl_str_mv |
Cartagena de Indias |
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv |
RAIRO-Oper. Res - vol. 55, n° 3 (2021). |
institution |
Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar |
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Ospina-Mateus, Holman1b4b1bc0-3606-4c14-bb13-dbc9d4251891Quintana Jiménez, Leonardo Augusto7b85dfbe-d700-457f-a814-09cf0ab19e56López Valdés, Francisco J.5a4268e2-55b2-412f-814e-1a12bd7d3511Sankar Sana, Shibd10ac6cd-87f8-493f-80ec-cf649edaf60cColombia2022-01-27T14:01:01Z2022-01-27T14:01:01Z2021-04-052022-01-25Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance function Holman Ospina-Mateus, Leonardo Augusto Quintana Jiménez, Francisco J. Lopez-Valdes and Shib Sankar Sana RAIRO-Oper. Res., 55 3 (2021) 1257-1278 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12585/10410https://doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021055Universidad Tecnológica de BolívarRepositorio Universidad Tecnológica de BolívarMotorcyclists account for more than 380 000 deaths annually worldwide from road tra c accidents. Motorcyclists are the most vulnerable road users worldwide to road safety (28% of global fatalities), together with cyclists and pedestrians. Approximately 80% of deaths are from low- or middle- income countries. Colombia has a rate of 9.7 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants, which places it 10th in the world. Motorcycles in Colombia correspond to 57% of the eet and generate an average of 51% of fatalities per year. This study aims to identify signi cant factors of the environment, tra c volume, and infrastructure to predict the number of accidents per year focused only on motorcyclists. The prediction model used a negative binomial regression for the de nition of a Safety Performance Function (SPF) for motorcyclists. In the second stage, Bayes' empirical approach is implemented to identify motorcycle crash-prone road sections. The study is applied in Cartagena, one of the capital cities with more tra c crashes and motorcyclists dedicated to informal transportation (motorcycle taxi riders) in Colombia. The data of 2884 motorcycle crashes between 2016 and 2017 are analyzed. The proposed model identi es that crashes of motorcyclists per kilometer have signi cant factors such as the average volume of daily motorcyclist tra c, the number of accesses (intersections) per kilometer, commercial areas, and the type of road and it identi es 55 critical accident-prone sections. The research evidences coherent and consistent results with previous studies and requires e ective countermeasures for the bene t of road safety for motorcyclists.22 Páginasapplication/pdfenghttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacionalhttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2RAIRO-Oper. Res - vol. 55, n° 3 (2021).Prediction of motorcyclist traffic crashes in Cartagena (Colombia): development of a safety performance functioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Motorcycle, crashesProne-sectionSafety performance functionNegative binomial regressionEmpirical Bayesian approachLEMBCartagena de IndiasAASHTO, The Highway Safety Manual. American Association of State Highway Transportation Professionals, Washington, DC, USA 529 (2010).M.A. Abdel-Aty and A.E. Radwan, Modeling tra c accident occurrence and involvement. Accident Anal. Prev. 32 (2000) 633{642.M.M. Abdul Manan, T. Jonsson and A. V arhelyi, Development of a safety performance function for motorcycle accident fatalities on Malaysian primary roads. Safety Sci. 60 (2013) 13{20.W. Ackaah and M. Salifu, Crash prediction model for two-lane rural highways in the Ashanti region of Ghana. IATSS Res. 35 (2011) 34{40.A.P. Afghari, M.M. Haque, S. 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