COVID-19 and Italy: what next?

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already taken on pandemic proportions, affecting over 100 countries in a matter of weeks. A global response to prepare health systems worldwide is imperative. Although containment measures in China have reduced new cases...

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Autores:
Tipo de recurso:
Article of investigation
Fecha de publicación:
2020
Institución:
Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
Repositorio:
Expeditio: repositorio UTadeo
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/12555
Acceso en línea:
https://doi.org/10.1016/
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12555
Palabra clave:
COVID-19
Italy
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
Rights
License
Acceso restringido
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oai_identifier_str oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/12555
network_acronym_str UTADEO2
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repository_id_str
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv COVID-19 and Italy: what next?
title COVID-19 and Italy: what next?
spellingShingle COVID-19 and Italy: what next?
COVID-19
Italy
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
title_short COVID-19 and Italy: what next?
title_full COVID-19 and Italy: what next?
title_fullStr COVID-19 and Italy: what next?
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 and Italy: what next?
title_sort COVID-19 and Italy: what next?
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Italy
topic COVID-19
Italy
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
dc.subject.lemb.spa.fl_str_mv Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
description The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already taken on pandemic proportions, affecting over 100 countries in a matter of weeks. A global response to prepare health systems worldwide is imperative. Although containment measures in China have reduced new cases by more than 90%, this reduction is not the case elsewhere, and Italy has been particularly affected. There is now grave concern regarding the Italian national health system’s capacity to effectively respond to the needs of patients who are infected and require intensive care for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The percentage of patients in intensive care reported daily in Italy between March 1 and March 11, 2020, has consistently been between 9% and 11% of patients who are actively infected. The number of patients infected since Feb 21 in Italy closely follows an exponential trend. If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020. Our analysis might help political leaders and health authorities to allocate enough resources, including personnel, beds, and intensive care facilities, to manage the situation in the next few days and weeks. If the Italian outbreak follows a similar trend as in Hubei province, China, the number of newly infected patients could start to decrease within 3–4 days, departing from the exponential trend. However, this cannot currently be predicted because of differences between social distancing measures and the capacity to quickly build dedicated facilities in China.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2020-09-01T16:53:08Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2020-09-01T16:53:08Z
dc.date.created.none.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.coar.spa.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
format http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
dc.identifier.issn.spa.fl_str_mv S0140-6736
dc.identifier.other.spa.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1016/
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12555
dc.identifier.doi.spa.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1016/
identifier_str_mv S0140-6736
url https://doi.org/10.1016/
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12555
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
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dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv Acceso restringido
rights_invalid_str_mv Acceso restringido
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dc.format.extent.spa.fl_str_mv 4 páginas
dc.format.mimetype.spa.fl_str_mv image/jepg
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv The Lancet
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv reponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL
instname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
instname_str Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
institution Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
reponame_str Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL
collection Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL
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spelling 2020-09-01T16:53:08Z2020-09-01T16:53:08Z2020S0140-6736https://doi.org/10.1016/http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12555https://doi.org/10.1016/The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already taken on pandemic proportions, affecting over 100 countries in a matter of weeks. A global response to prepare health systems worldwide is imperative. Although containment measures in China have reduced new cases by more than 90%, this reduction is not the case elsewhere, and Italy has been particularly affected. There is now grave concern regarding the Italian national health system’s capacity to effectively respond to the needs of patients who are infected and require intensive care for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The percentage of patients in intensive care reported daily in Italy between March 1 and March 11, 2020, has consistently been between 9% and 11% of patients who are actively infected. The number of patients infected since Feb 21 in Italy closely follows an exponential trend. If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020. Our analysis might help political leaders and health authorities to allocate enough resources, including personnel, beds, and intensive care facilities, to manage the situation in the next few days and weeks. If the Italian outbreak follows a similar trend as in Hubei province, China, the number of newly infected patients could start to decrease within 3–4 days, departing from the exponential trend. However, this cannot currently be predicted because of differences between social distancing measures and the capacity to quickly build dedicated facilities in China.4 páginasimage/jepgengThe Lancetreponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo LozanoCOVID-19ItalySíndrome respiratorio agudo graveCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2CoronavirusCOVID-19 and Italy: what next?Artículohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Acceso restringidohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cfRemuzzi, AndreaRemuzzi, GiuseppeTHUMBNAILCaptura.PNGCaptura.PNGPortadaimage/png179430https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12555/4/Captura.PNG453ee9d01196c4abeec281ca19da6b68MD54open accessCOVID-19-and-Italy--what-next-_2020_The-Lancet.pdf.jpgCOVID-19-and-Italy--what-next-_2020_The-Lancet.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg14974https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12555/5/COVID-19-and-Italy--what-next-_2020_The-Lancet.pdf.jpga231fc663dc413370def53d4b59a4396MD55open accessORIGINALCaptura.PNGCaptura.PNGVer portadaimage/png179430https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12555/1/Captura.PNG453ee9d01196c4abeec281ca19da6b68MD51open accessCOVID-19-and-Italy--what-next-_2020_The-Lancet.pdfCOVID-19-and-Italy--what-next-_2020_The-Lancet.pdfArtículo reservadoapplication/pdf492885https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12555/3/COVID-19-and-Italy--what-next-_2020_The-Lancet.pdfaf2198b4c31a3693e6d0476af2a29c62MD53embargoed access|||2200-09-01LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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