The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures

The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive to the role of inapparent infections, capable of: estimating the expected unfolding of the outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from the baseline, should lockdown relaxations result in increased disease transmission; calculating the isolation effort required to prevent a resurgence of the outbreak. A 40% increase in effective transmission would yield a rebound of infections. A control effort capable of isolating daily ~5.5% of the exposed and highly infectious individuals proves necessary to maintain the epidemic curve onto the decreasing baseline trajectory. We finally provide an ex-post assessment based on the epidemiological data that became available after the initial analysis and estimate the actual disease transmission that occurred after weakening the lockdown.

• Tipo de recurso: Article of journal
• Fecha de publicación: 2020
• Institución: Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
• Repositorio: Expeditio: repositorio UTadeo
• Idioma: eng
• OAI Identifier: oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/13492
• Acceso en línea: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18050-2; http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/13492; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18050-2
• Palabra clave: The geography of COVID-19; confinement measures; infections; Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Coronavirus
• License: Acceso restringido