A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic

The COVID-19 epidemic hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules. Previous modelling studies at the national level overlooked the fact that Italy is divided into administrative regions which can independently oversee their own share of the Italian Nati...

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Autores:
Tipo de recurso:
Article of investigation
Fecha de publicación:
2020
Institución:
Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
Repositorio:
Expeditio: repositorio UTadeo
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/14427
Acceso en línea:
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18827-5
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14427
Palabra clave:
Network model
COVID-19
Epidemic
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
Rights
License
Abierto (Texto Completo)
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dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic
title A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic
spellingShingle A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic
Network model
COVID-19
Epidemic
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
title_short A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic
title_full A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic
title_fullStr A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic
title_full_unstemmed A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic
title_sort A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv Network model
COVID-19
Epidemic
topic Network model
COVID-19
Epidemic
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
dc.subject.lemb.spa.fl_str_mv Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
description The COVID-19 epidemic hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules. Previous modelling studies at the national level overlooked the fact that Italy is divided into administrative regions which can independently oversee their own share of the Italian National Health Service. Here, we show that heterogeneity between regions is essential to understand the spread of the epidemic and to design effective strategies to control the disease. We model Italy as a network of regions and parameterize the model of each region on real data spanning over two months from the initial outbreak. We confirm the effectiveness at the regional level of the national lockdown strategy and propose coordinated regional interventions to prevent future national lockdowns, while avoiding saturation of the regional health systems and mitigating impact on costs. Our study and methodology can be easily extended to other levels of granularity to support policy- and decision-makers.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2020-10-13T20:12:54Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2020-10-13T20:12:54Z
dc.date.created.none.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.coar.spa.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
format http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
dc.identifier.issn.spa.fl_str_mv 2041-1723
dc.identifier.other.spa.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18827-5
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14427
dc.identifier.doi.spa.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18827-5
identifier_str_mv 2041-1723
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18827-5
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14427
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv Abierto (Texto Completo)
rights_invalid_str_mv Abierto (Texto Completo)
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.format.extent.spa.fl_str_mv 9 páginas
dc.format.mimetype.spa.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv Nature communications
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv reponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL
instname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
instname_str Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
institution Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
reponame_str Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL
collection Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/14427/2/license.txt
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repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositorio Institucional - Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano
repository.mail.fl_str_mv expeditio@utadeo.edu.co
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spelling 2020-10-13T20:12:54Z2020-10-13T20:12:54Z20202041-1723https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18827-5http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14427https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18827-5The COVID-19 epidemic hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules. Previous modelling studies at the national level overlooked the fact that Italy is divided into administrative regions which can independently oversee their own share of the Italian National Health Service. Here, we show that heterogeneity between regions is essential to understand the spread of the epidemic and to design effective strategies to control the disease. We model Italy as a network of regions and parameterize the model of each region on real data spanning over two months from the initial outbreak. We confirm the effectiveness at the regional level of the national lockdown strategy and propose coordinated regional interventions to prevent future national lockdowns, while avoiding saturation of the regional health systems and mitigating impact on costs. Our study and methodology can be easily extended to other levels of granularity to support policy- and decision-makers.9 páginasapplication/pdfengNature communicationsreponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo LozanoNetwork modelCOVID-19EpidemicSíndrome respiratorio agudo graveCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2CoronavirusA network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemicArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Abierto (Texto Completo)http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Della Rossa, FabioSalzano, DavideDi Meglio, AnnaDe Lellis, FrancescoCoraggio, MarcoCalabrese, CarmelaGuarino, AgostinoCardona-Rivera, RicardoDe Lellis, PietroLiuzza, DavideLo Iudice, FrancescoRusso, GiovanniBernardo, Mario diLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82938https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/14427/2/license.txtabceeb1c943c50d3343516f9dbfc110fMD52open accessTHUMBNAILs41467-020-18827-5.pdf.jpgs41467-020-18827-5.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg16771https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/14427/3/s41467-020-18827-5.pdf.jpgd465c3e86a3295874a5e8714fbc1e696MD53open access20.500.12010/14427oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/144272021-03-17 17:04:04.954metadata only accessRepositorio Institucional - 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