Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil
By April 7th, 2020, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected one and a half million people worldwide, accounting for over 80 thousand of deaths in 209 countries and territories around the world. The new and fast dynamics of the pandemic are challenging the health systems of different cou...
- Autores:
- Tipo de recurso:
- Article of journal
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2020
- Institución:
- Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
- Repositorio:
- Expeditio: repositorio UTadeo
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/12261
- Acceso en línea:
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920302885?via%3Dihub
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12261
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109888
- Palabra clave:
- Epidemiología
Modelos matemáticos
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
Epidemiology
Mathematical modeling
Uncertainty quantification
Sensitivity analysis
- Rights
- License
- Acceso restringido
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repository_id_str |
|
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil |
title |
Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil Epidemiología Modelos matemáticos Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus Epidemiology Mathematical modeling Uncertainty quantification Sensitivity analysis |
title_short |
Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil |
title_full |
Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil |
title_sort |
Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil |
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv |
Epidemiología Modelos matemáticos |
topic |
Epidemiología Modelos matemáticos Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus Epidemiology Mathematical modeling Uncertainty quantification Sensitivity analysis |
dc.subject.lemb.spa.fl_str_mv |
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus |
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv |
Epidemiology Mathematical modeling Uncertainty quantification Sensitivity analysis |
description |
By April 7th, 2020, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected one and a half million people worldwide, accounting for over 80 thousand of deaths in 209 countries and territories around the world. The new and fast dynamics of the pandemic are challenging the health systems of different countries. In the absence of vaccines or effective treatments, mitigation policies, such as social isolation and lock-down of cities, have been adopted, but the results vary among different countries. Some countries were able to control the disease at the moment, as is the case of South Korea. Others, like Italy, are now experiencing the peak of the pandemic. Finally, countries with emerging economies and social issues, like Brazil, are in the initial phase of the pandemic. In this work, we use mathematical models with time-dependent coefficients, techniques of inverse and forward uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis to characterize essential aspects of the COVID-19 in the three countries mentioned above. The model parameters estimated for South Korea revealed effective social distancing and isolation policies, border control, and a high number in the percentage of reported cases. In contrast, underreporting of cases was estimated to be very high in Brazil and Italy. In addition, the model estimated a poor isolation policy at the moment in Brazil, with a reduction of contact around 40%, whereas Italy and South Korea estimated numbers for contact reduction are at 75% and 90%, respectively. This characterization of the COVID-19, in these different countries under different scenarios and phases of the pandemic, supports the importance of mitigation policies, such as social distancing. In addition, it raises serious concerns for socially and economically fragile countries, where underreporting poses additional challenges to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic by significantly increasing the uncertainties regarding its dynamics. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-08-25T21:11:51Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-08-25T21:11:51Z |
dc.date.created.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-07 |
dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Artículo |
dc.type.coar.spa.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
format |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
dc.identifier.issn.spa.fl_str_mv |
0960-0779 |
dc.identifier.other.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920302885?via%3Dihub |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12261 |
dc.identifier.doi.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109888 |
identifier_str_mv |
0960-0779 |
url |
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920302885?via%3Dihub http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12261 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109888 |
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cf |
dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Acceso restringido |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Acceso restringido http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cf |
dc.format.extent.spa.fl_str_mv |
9 páginas |
dc.format.mimetype.spa.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv |
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals |
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL instname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano |
instname_str |
Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano |
institution |
Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano |
reponame_str |
Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL |
collection |
Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12261/3/Characterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdf https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12261/2/license.txt https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12261/4/Captura.JPG https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12261/5/Characterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdf.jpg |
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Repositorio Institucional - Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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spelling |
2020-08-25T21:11:51Z2020-08-25T21:11:51Z2020-070960-0779https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920302885?via%3Dihubhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12261https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.1098889 páginasapplication/pdfengChaos, Solitons and Fractalsreponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo LozanoEpidemiologíaModelos matemáticosSíndrome respiratorio agudo graveCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2CoronavirusEpidemiologyMathematical modelingUncertainty quantificationSensitivity analysisCharacterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and BrazilArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Acceso restringidohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cfBy April 7th, 2020, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected one and a half million people worldwide, accounting for over 80 thousand of deaths in 209 countries and territories around the world. The new and fast dynamics of the pandemic are challenging the health systems of different countries. In the absence of vaccines or effective treatments, mitigation policies, such as social isolation and lock-down of cities, have been adopted, but the results vary among different countries. Some countries were able to control the disease at the moment, as is the case of South Korea. Others, like Italy, are now experiencing the peak of the pandemic. Finally, countries with emerging economies and social issues, like Brazil, are in the initial phase of the pandemic. In this work, we use mathematical models with time-dependent coefficients, techniques of inverse and forward uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis to characterize essential aspects of the COVID-19 in the three countries mentioned above. The model parameters estimated for South Korea revealed effective social distancing and isolation policies, border control, and a high number in the percentage of reported cases. In contrast, underreporting of cases was estimated to be very high in Brazil and Italy. In addition, the model estimated a poor isolation policy at the moment in Brazil, with a reduction of contact around 40%, whereas Italy and South Korea estimated numbers for contact reduction are at 75% and 90%, respectively. This characterization of the COVID-19, in these different countries under different scenarios and phases of the pandemic, supports the importance of mitigation policies, such as social distancing. In addition, it raises serious concerns for socially and economically fragile countries, where underreporting poses additional challenges to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic by significantly increasing the uncertainties regarding its dynamics.Reis, Ruy Freitasde Melo Quintela, Bárbarade Oliveira Campos, JoventinoGomes, Johnny MoreiraRocha, Bernardo MartinsLobosco, MarceloWeber dos Santos, RodrigoORIGINALCharacterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdfCharacterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdfDocumento reservadoapplication/pdf1233454https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12261/3/Characterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdfc5acda8005bce0293bbc135a6cb3e6fcMD53embargoed access|||2220-08-25LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82938https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12261/2/license.txtabceeb1c943c50d3343516f9dbfc110fMD52open accessTHUMBNAILCaptura.JPGCaptura.JPGimage/jpeg75576https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12261/4/Captura.JPG6958a7803975a346c4bd885823f0d083MD54open accessCharacterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdf.jpgCharacterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg15442https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12261/5/Characterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdf.jpg4023c5baf1bdb5ff5e671b07902845d5MD55open access20.500.12010/12261oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/122612020-08-25 16:14:19.064embargoed access|||2220-08-25Repositorio Institucional - Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozanoexpeditio@utadeo.edu.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 |