Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil

By April 7th, 2020, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected one and a half million people worldwide, accounting for over 80 thousand of deaths in 209 countries and territories around the world. The new and fast dynamics of the pandemic are challenging the health systems of different cou...

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Autores:
Tipo de recurso:
Article of journal
Fecha de publicación:
2020
Institución:
Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
Repositorio:
Expeditio: repositorio UTadeo
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/12261
Acceso en línea:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920302885?via%3Dihub
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12261
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109888
Palabra clave:
Epidemiología
Modelos matemáticos
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
Epidemiology
Mathematical modeling
Uncertainty quantification
Sensitivity analysis
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License
Acceso restringido
id UTADEO2_cd2d1ff97f4f2b76e22de059831b205c
oai_identifier_str oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/12261
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repository_id_str
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil
title Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil
spellingShingle Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil
Epidemiología
Modelos matemáticos
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
Epidemiology
Mathematical modeling
Uncertainty quantification
Sensitivity analysis
title_short Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil
title_full Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil
title_fullStr Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil
title_sort Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv Epidemiología
Modelos matemáticos
topic Epidemiología
Modelos matemáticos
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
Epidemiology
Mathematical modeling
Uncertainty quantification
Sensitivity analysis
dc.subject.lemb.spa.fl_str_mv Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv Epidemiology
Mathematical modeling
Uncertainty quantification
Sensitivity analysis
description By April 7th, 2020, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected one and a half million people worldwide, accounting for over 80 thousand of deaths in 209 countries and territories around the world. The new and fast dynamics of the pandemic are challenging the health systems of different countries. In the absence of vaccines or effective treatments, mitigation policies, such as social isolation and lock-down of cities, have been adopted, but the results vary among different countries. Some countries were able to control the disease at the moment, as is the case of South Korea. Others, like Italy, are now experiencing the peak of the pandemic. Finally, countries with emerging economies and social issues, like Brazil, are in the initial phase of the pandemic. In this work, we use mathematical models with time-dependent coefficients, techniques of inverse and forward uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis to characterize essential aspects of the COVID-19 in the three countries mentioned above. The model parameters estimated for South Korea revealed effective social distancing and isolation policies, border control, and a high number in the percentage of reported cases. In contrast, underreporting of cases was estimated to be very high in Brazil and Italy. In addition, the model estimated a poor isolation policy at the moment in Brazil, with a reduction of contact around 40%, whereas Italy and South Korea estimated numbers for contact reduction are at 75% and 90%, respectively. This characterization of the COVID-19, in these different countries under different scenarios and phases of the pandemic, supports the importance of mitigation policies, such as social distancing. In addition, it raises serious concerns for socially and economically fragile countries, where underreporting poses additional challenges to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic by significantly increasing the uncertainties regarding its dynamics.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2020-08-25T21:11:51Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2020-08-25T21:11:51Z
dc.date.created.none.fl_str_mv 2020-07
dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.coar.spa.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
format http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
dc.identifier.issn.spa.fl_str_mv 0960-0779
dc.identifier.other.spa.fl_str_mv https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920302885?via%3Dihub
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12261
dc.identifier.doi.spa.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109888
identifier_str_mv 0960-0779
url https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920302885?via%3Dihub
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12261
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109888
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cf
dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv Acceso restringido
rights_invalid_str_mv Acceso restringido
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cf
dc.format.extent.spa.fl_str_mv 9 páginas
dc.format.mimetype.spa.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv Chaos, Solitons and Fractals
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv reponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL
instname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
instname_str Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
institution Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
reponame_str Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL
collection Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL
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spelling 2020-08-25T21:11:51Z2020-08-25T21:11:51Z2020-070960-0779https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920302885?via%3Dihubhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12261https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.1098889 páginasapplication/pdfengChaos, Solitons and Fractalsreponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo LozanoEpidemiologíaModelos matemáticosSíndrome respiratorio agudo graveCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2CoronavirusEpidemiologyMathematical modelingUncertainty quantificationSensitivity analysisCharacterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and BrazilArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Acceso restringidohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cfBy April 7th, 2020, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected one and a half million people worldwide, accounting for over 80 thousand of deaths in 209 countries and territories around the world. The new and fast dynamics of the pandemic are challenging the health systems of different countries. In the absence of vaccines or effective treatments, mitigation policies, such as social isolation and lock-down of cities, have been adopted, but the results vary among different countries. Some countries were able to control the disease at the moment, as is the case of South Korea. Others, like Italy, are now experiencing the peak of the pandemic. Finally, countries with emerging economies and social issues, like Brazil, are in the initial phase of the pandemic. In this work, we use mathematical models with time-dependent coefficients, techniques of inverse and forward uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis to characterize essential aspects of the COVID-19 in the three countries mentioned above. The model parameters estimated for South Korea revealed effective social distancing and isolation policies, border control, and a high number in the percentage of reported cases. In contrast, underreporting of cases was estimated to be very high in Brazil and Italy. In addition, the model estimated a poor isolation policy at the moment in Brazil, with a reduction of contact around 40%, whereas Italy and South Korea estimated numbers for contact reduction are at 75% and 90%, respectively. This characterization of the COVID-19, in these different countries under different scenarios and phases of the pandemic, supports the importance of mitigation policies, such as social distancing. In addition, it raises serious concerns for socially and economically fragile countries, where underreporting poses additional challenges to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic by significantly increasing the uncertainties regarding its dynamics.Reis, Ruy Freitasde Melo Quintela, Bárbarade Oliveira Campos, JoventinoGomes, Johnny MoreiraRocha, Bernardo MartinsLobosco, MarceloWeber dos Santos, RodrigoORIGINALCharacterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdfCharacterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdfDocumento reservadoapplication/pdf1233454https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12261/3/Characterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdfc5acda8005bce0293bbc135a6cb3e6fcMD53embargoed access|||2220-08-25LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82938https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12261/2/license.txtabceeb1c943c50d3343516f9dbfc110fMD52open accessTHUMBNAILCaptura.JPGCaptura.JPGimage/jpeg75576https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12261/4/Captura.JPG6958a7803975a346c4bd885823f0d083MD54open accessCharacterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdf.jpgCharacterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg15442https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/12261/5/Characterization-of-the-COVID-19-pandemic-and-the-impact-of-u_2020_Chaos--So.pdf.jpg4023c5baf1bdb5ff5e671b07902845d5MD55open access20.500.12010/12261oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/122612020-08-25 16:14:19.064embargoed access|||2220-08-25Repositorio Institucional - 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