Warmer weather unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission: An ecological study in 202 locations in 8 countries

Purpose: To examine the association between meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and UV radiation) and transmission capacity of COVID-19. Methods: We collected daily numbers of COVID-19 cases in 202 locations in 8 countries. We matched meteorological data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.We used a time-frequency approach to examine the possible association between meteorological conditions and basic reproductive number (R0) of COVID-19. We determined the correlations between meteorological factors and R0 of COVID-19 using multiple linear regression models and meta-analysis. We further validated our results using a susceptible-exposedinfectious-recovered (SEIR) metapopulation model to simulate the changes of daily cases of COVID-19 in China under different temperatures and relative humidity conditions. Principal results: Temperature did not exhibit significant association with R0 of COVID-19 (meta p = 0.446). Also, relative humidity (meta p = 0.215), wind speed (meta p = 0.986), and ultraviolet (UV) radiation (meta p = 0.491) were not significantly associated with R0 either. The SEIR model in China showed that with a wide range of meteorological conditions, the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases would not change substantially.

• Tipo de recurso: Article of investigation
• Fecha de publicación: 2020
• Institución: Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
• Repositorio: Expeditio: repositorio UTadeo
• Idioma: eng
• OAI Identifier: oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/13678
• Acceso en línea: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142272; http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/13678
• Palabra clave: SARS-CoV-2; Meteorological factors; Temperature; Ultraviolet radiation; Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Coronavirus
• License: Abierto (Texto Completo)