The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared in March 12, 2020 the COVID-19 disease as pandemic. In Morocco, the first local transmission case was detected in March 13. The number of confirmed cases has gradually increased to reach 15,194 on July 10, 2020. To predict the COVID-19 evolution, statisti...
- Autores:
- Tipo de recurso:
- Article of investigation
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2020
- Institución:
- Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
- Repositorio:
- Expeditio: repositorio UTadeo
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/14023
- Palabra clave:
- COVID-19 spreading
Hidden Markov chain
Statistical modelling
Forecast
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
- Rights
- License
- Abierto (Texto Completo)
id |
UTADEO2_618f4bf718927bb16f1d226a3530a66b |
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oai_identifier_str |
oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/14023 |
network_acronym_str |
UTADEO2 |
network_name_str |
Expeditio: repositorio UTadeo |
repository_id_str |
|
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset |
title |
The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset |
spellingShingle |
The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset COVID-19 spreading Hidden Markov chain Statistical modelling Forecast Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus |
title_short |
The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset |
title_full |
The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset |
title_fullStr |
The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset |
title_full_unstemmed |
The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset |
title_sort |
The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset |
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 spreading Hidden Markov chain Statistical modelling Forecast |
topic |
COVID-19 spreading Hidden Markov chain Statistical modelling Forecast Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus |
dc.subject.lemb.spa.fl_str_mv |
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus |
description |
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared in March 12, 2020 the COVID-19 disease as pandemic. In Morocco, the first local transmission case was detected in March 13. The number of confirmed cases has gradually increased to reach 15,194 on July 10, 2020. To predict the COVID-19 evolution, statistical and mathematical models such as generalized logistic growth model [1], exponential model [2], segmented Poisson model [3], Susceptible-Infected-Recovered derivative models [4] and ARIMA [5] have been proposed and used. Herein, we proposed the use of the Hidden Markov Chain, which is a statistical system modelling transitions from one state (confirmed cases, recovered, active or death) to another according to a transition probability matrix to forecast the evolution of COVID-19 in Morocco from March 14, to October 5, 2020. In our knowledge the Hidden Markov Chain was not yet applied to the COVID-19 spreading. Forecasts for the cumulative number of confirmed, recovered, active and death cases can help the Moroccan authorities to set up adequate protocols for managing the post-confinement due to COVID-19. We provided both the recorded and forecasted data matrices of the cumulative number of the confirmed, recovered and active cases through the range of the studied dates. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-09-30T16:19:20Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-09-30T16:19:20Z |
dc.date.created.none.fl_str_mv |
2020 |
dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Artículo |
dc.type.coar.spa.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 |
format |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 |
dc.identifier.issn.spa.fl_str_mv |
2352-3409 |
dc.identifier.other.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2020.106067 |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14023 |
dc.identifier.doi.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2020.106067 |
identifier_str_mv |
2352-3409 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2020.106067 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14023 |
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Abierto (Texto Completo) |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Abierto (Texto Completo) http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dc.format.extent.spa.fl_str_mv |
5 páginas |
dc.format.mimetype.spa.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv |
Data in Brief |
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL instname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano |
instname_str |
Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano |
institution |
Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano |
reponame_str |
Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL |
collection |
Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/14023/3/The-hidden-Markov-chain-modelling-of-the-COVID-19-spreading-u_2020_Data-in-B.pdf.jpg https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/14023/2/license.txt |
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
5da4a2fff95cafde866355cf1a98c262 abceeb1c943c50d3343516f9dbfc110f |
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositorio Institucional - Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
expeditio@utadeo.edu.co |
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1814213761876099072 |
spelling |
2020-09-30T16:19:20Z2020-09-30T16:19:20Z20202352-3409https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2020.106067http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14023https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2020.106067The World Health Organization (WHO) declared in March 12, 2020 the COVID-19 disease as pandemic. In Morocco, the first local transmission case was detected in March 13. The number of confirmed cases has gradually increased to reach 15,194 on July 10, 2020. To predict the COVID-19 evolution, statistical and mathematical models such as generalized logistic growth model [1], exponential model [2], segmented Poisson model [3], Susceptible-Infected-Recovered derivative models [4] and ARIMA [5] have been proposed and used. Herein, we proposed the use of the Hidden Markov Chain, which is a statistical system modelling transitions from one state (confirmed cases, recovered, active or death) to another according to a transition probability matrix to forecast the evolution of COVID-19 in Morocco from March 14, to October 5, 2020. In our knowledge the Hidden Markov Chain was not yet applied to the COVID-19 spreading. Forecasts for the cumulative number of confirmed, recovered, active and death cases can help the Moroccan authorities to set up adequate protocols for managing the post-confinement due to COVID-19. We provided both the recorded and forecasted data matrices of the cumulative number of the confirmed, recovered and active cases through the range of the studied dates.5 páginasapplication/pdfengData in Briefreponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo LozanoCOVID-19 spreadingHidden Markov chainStatistical modellingForecastSíndrome respiratorio agudo graveCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2CoronavirusThe hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan datasetArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Abierto (Texto Completo)http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Marfak, AbdelghafourAchak, DohaAzizi, AsmaaNejjari, ChakibAboudi, KhalidSaad, ElmadaniHilali, AbderraoufYoulyouz-Marfak, IbtissamTHUMBNAILThe-hidden-Markov-chain-modelling-of-the-COVID-19-spreading-u_2020_Data-in-B.pdf.jpgThe-hidden-Markov-chain-modelling-of-the-COVID-19-spreading-u_2020_Data-in-B.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg13346https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/14023/3/The-hidden-Markov-chain-modelling-of-the-COVID-19-spreading-u_2020_Data-in-B.pdf.jpg5da4a2fff95cafde866355cf1a98c262MD53open accessLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82938https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/14023/2/license.txtabceeb1c943c50d3343516f9dbfc110fMD52open access20.500.12010/14023oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/140232021-03-17 19:59:06.748metadata only accessRepositorio Institucional - Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozanoexpeditio@utadeo.edu.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 |