Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats
In the last 20-30 years, technological innovation has enabled the advancement of industry at a global scale, giving rise to a truly global society, resting on an interdependent web of transnational technical, economic and social systems. These systems are exposed to scenarios of cascading outbreaks,...
- Autores:
- Tipo de recurso:
- Article of investigation
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2020
- Institución:
- Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
- Repositorio:
- Expeditio: repositorio UTadeo
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/14550
- Acceso en línea:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107270
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14550
- Palabra clave:
- Globalization and global risk
Risk analysis
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
- Rights
- License
- Abierto (Texto Completo)
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dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats |
title |
Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats |
spellingShingle |
Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats Globalization and global risk Risk analysis Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus |
title_short |
Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats |
title_full |
Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats |
title_fullStr |
Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats |
title_full_unstemmed |
Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats |
title_sort |
Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats |
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv |
Globalization and global risk Risk analysis |
topic |
Globalization and global risk Risk analysis Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus |
dc.subject.lemb.spa.fl_str_mv |
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus |
description |
In the last 20-30 years, technological innovation has enabled the advancement of industry at a global scale, giving rise to a truly global society, resting on an interdependent web of transnational technical, economic and social systems. These systems are exposed to scenarios of cascading outbreaks, whose impacts can ripple to very large scales through their strong interdependencies, as recently shown by the pandemic spreading of the Coronavirus. Considerable work has been conducted in recent years to develop frameworks to support the assessment, communication, management and governance of this type of risk, building on concepts like systemic risks, complexity theory, deep uncertainties, resilience engineering, adaptive management and black swans. Yet contemporary risk analysis struggles to provide authoritative societal guidance for adequately handling these types of risks, as clearly illustrated by the Coronavirus case. In this paper, we reflect on this situation. We aim to identify critical challenges in current frameworks of risk assessment and management and point to ways to strengthen these, to be better able to confront threats like the Coronavirus in the future. A set of principles and theses are established, which have the potential to support a common foundation for the many different scientific perspectives and ‘schools’ currently dealing with risk handling issues. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-10-16T21:14:58Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-10-16T21:14:58Z |
dc.date.created.none.fl_str_mv |
2020 |
dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Artículo |
dc.type.coar.spa.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 |
format |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 |
dc.identifier.issn.spa.fl_str_mv |
0951-8320 |
dc.identifier.other.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107270 |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14550 |
dc.identifier.doi.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107270 |
identifier_str_mv |
0951-8320 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107270 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14550 |
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Abierto (Texto Completo) |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Abierto (Texto Completo) http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dc.format.extent.spa.fl_str_mv |
21 páginas |
dc.format.mimetype.spa.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv |
Reliability Engineering and System Safety |
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL instname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano |
instname_str |
Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano |
institution |
Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano |
reponame_str |
Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL |
collection |
Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/14550/3/Globalization-and-global-risk--How-risk-analysis-need_2020_Reliability-Engin.pdf.jpg https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/14550/2/license.txt |
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bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
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repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositorio Institucional - Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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spelling |
2020-10-16T21:14:58Z2020-10-16T21:14:58Z20200951-8320https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107270http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14550https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107270In the last 20-30 years, technological innovation has enabled the advancement of industry at a global scale, giving rise to a truly global society, resting on an interdependent web of transnational technical, economic and social systems. These systems are exposed to scenarios of cascading outbreaks, whose impacts can ripple to very large scales through their strong interdependencies, as recently shown by the pandemic spreading of the Coronavirus. Considerable work has been conducted in recent years to develop frameworks to support the assessment, communication, management and governance of this type of risk, building on concepts like systemic risks, complexity theory, deep uncertainties, resilience engineering, adaptive management and black swans. Yet contemporary risk analysis struggles to provide authoritative societal guidance for adequately handling these types of risks, as clearly illustrated by the Coronavirus case. In this paper, we reflect on this situation. We aim to identify critical challenges in current frameworks of risk assessment and management and point to ways to strengthen these, to be better able to confront threats like the Coronavirus in the future. A set of principles and theses are established, which have the potential to support a common foundation for the many different scientific perspectives and ‘schools’ currently dealing with risk handling issues.21 páginasapplication/pdfengReliability Engineering and System Safetyreponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTLinstname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo LozanoGlobalization and global riskRisk analysisSíndrome respiratorio agudo graveCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2CoronavirusGlobalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threatsArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Abierto (Texto Completo)http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Aven, TerjeZio, EnricoTHUMBNAILGlobalization-and-global-risk--How-risk-analysis-need_2020_Reliability-Engin.pdf.jpgGlobalization-and-global-risk--How-risk-analysis-need_2020_Reliability-Engin.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg9979https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/14550/3/Globalization-and-global-risk--How-risk-analysis-need_2020_Reliability-Engin.pdf.jpgbbed182251a8affa2c305d0b1e0d2130MD53open accessLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82938https://expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co/bitstream/20.500.12010/14550/2/license.txtabceeb1c943c50d3343516f9dbfc110fMD52open access20.500.12010/14550oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/145502021-03-15 11:25:29.381metadata only accessRepositorio Institucional - Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozanoexpeditio@utadeo.edu.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 |