Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan, China and Seattle, US

Background Pandemic SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan, China on December 31, 2019. Twenty-one days later, the US identified its first case––a man who had traveled from Wuhan to the state of Washington. Recent studies in the Wuhan and Seattle metropolitan areas retrospectively tested samples taken from patients with COVID-like symptoms. In the Wuhan study, there were 4 SARS-CoV-2 positives and 7 influenza positives out of 26 adults outpatients who sought care for influenza-like-illness at two central hospitals prior to January 12, 2020. The Seattle study reported 25 SARS-CoV-2 positives and 442 influenza positives out of 2353 children and adults who reported acute respiratory illness prior to March 9, 2020. Here, we use these findings to extrapolate the early prevalence of symptomatic COVID-19 in Wuhan and Seattle. Methods For each city, we estimate the ratio of COVID-19 to influenza infections from the retrospective testing data and estimate the age-specific prevalence of influenza from surveillance reports during the same time period. Combining these, we approximate the total number of symptomatic COVID-19 infections.

• Tipo de recurso: Article of journal
• Fecha de publicación: 2020
• Institución: Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
• Repositorio: Expeditio: repositorio UTadeo
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/15318
• Acceso en línea: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30223-6/fulltext; http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/15318; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100479
• Palabra clave: Pediatric infections; Adult infections; Influenza; Wuhan; Seattle; Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Coronavirus
• License: Acceso restringido