Monitoring the mortality impact of COVID-19 in Europe: What can be learned from 2009 influenza H1N1p mortality studies?

Objectives: Understanding the proportion of pandemic deaths captured as “laboratoryconfirmed” deaths is crucial. We assessed the ability of laboratory-confirmed deaths to capture mortality in the EU during the 2009 pandemic, and examined the likelihood that these findings are applicable to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Methods: We present unpublished results from the Global Pandemic Mortality (GLaMOR) project, in which country-specific mortality estimates were made for the 2009 influenza H1N1p pandemic. These estimates were compared to laboratory-confirmed deaths during the 2009 pandemic to estimate the ability of surveillance systems to capture pandemic mortality. Results: For the 2009 influenza H1N1p pandemic, we estimated that the proportion of true pandemic deaths captured by laboratory-confirmed deaths was approximately 67%. Several differences (e.g. age groups affected) between the two pandemics make it unlikely that this capture rate will be equally high for SARS-CoV-2. Conclusion: The surveillance of laboratory-confirmed deaths in the EU during the 2009 pandemic was more accurate than previously assumed. We hypothesize that this method is less reliable for SARS-CoV-2. Near-real-time excess all-cause mortality estimates, routinely compiled by EuroMOMO, probably form a better indicator of pandemic mortality. We urge more countries to join this project and that national level absolute mortality numbers are presented.

• Tipo de recurso: Article of investigation
• Fecha de publicación: 2020
• Institución: Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
• Repositorio: Expeditio: repositorio UTadeo
• Idioma: eng
• OAI Identifier: oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/14673
• Acceso en línea: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.037; http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/14673
• Palabra clave: Influenza; COVID-19; Mortality; Surveillance; Europe; Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Coronavirus
• License: Abierto (Texto Completo)