Insights into the dynamics and control of COVID-19 infection rates
This work aims to model, simulate and provide insights into the dynamics and control of COVID-19 infection rates. Using an established epidemiological model augmented with a time-varying disease transmission rate allows daily model calibration using COVID-19 case data from countries around the world...
- Autores:
- Tipo de recurso:
- Article of journal
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2020
- Institución:
- Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
- Repositorio:
- Expeditio: repositorio UTadeo
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:expeditiorepositorio.utadeo.edu.co:20.500.12010/12076
- Acceso en línea:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109937
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/12076
- Palabra clave:
- COVID-19
Model calibration
Predictive modelling and simulation
Time varying disease transmission rate
Síndrome respiratorio agudo grave
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus
- Rights
- License
- Acceso restringido
| Summary: | This work aims to model, simulate and provide insights into the dynamics and control of COVID-19 infection rates. Using an established epidemiological model augmented with a time-varying disease transmission rate allows daily model calibration using COVID-19 case data from countries around the world. This hybrid model provides predictive forecasts of the cumulative number of infected cases. It also reveals the dynamics associated with disease suppression, demonstrating the time to reduce the effective, time-dependent, reproduction number. Model simulations provide insights into the outcomes of disease suppression measures and the predicted duration of the pandemic. Visualisation of reported data provides up-to-date condition monitoring, while daily model calibration allows for a continued and updated forecast of the current state of the pandemic. |
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