Analysis of energy consumption in colombia using the holt method

Energy production is constantly facing major challenges today, because despite initiatives to promote the insertion of renewable energy, electricity consumption has shown considerable growth in recent years. In order to use an instrument that facilitates forecasts and predictive processes for the de...

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Autores:
Contreras Salinas, Jheison
López, Fernando
Rondon Rodriguez, Carlos Andres
Hernández palma4, Hugo G.
De-la-Hoz-Hernández, Juan-David
Tipo de recurso:
Fecha de publicación:
2020
Institución:
Universidad Simón Bolívar
Repositorio:
Repositorio Digital USB
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:bonga.unisimon.edu.co:20.500.12442/6683
Acceso en línea:
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12442/6683
https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8221
http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/8221
Palabra clave:
Energy Consumption
Holt Method
Energy Efficiency
Colombia
Rights
openAccess
License
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv Analysis of energy consumption in colombia using the holt method
title Analysis of energy consumption in colombia using the holt method
spellingShingle Analysis of energy consumption in colombia using the holt method
Energy Consumption
Holt Method
Energy Efficiency
Colombia
title_short Analysis of energy consumption in colombia using the holt method
title_full Analysis of energy consumption in colombia using the holt method
title_fullStr Analysis of energy consumption in colombia using the holt method
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of energy consumption in colombia using the holt method
title_sort Analysis of energy consumption in colombia using the holt method
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Contreras Salinas, Jheison
López, Fernando
Rondon Rodriguez, Carlos Andres
Hernández palma4, Hugo G.
De-la-Hoz-Hernández, Juan-David
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv Contreras Salinas, Jheison
López, Fernando
Rondon Rodriguez, Carlos Andres
Hernández palma4, Hugo G.
De-la-Hoz-Hernández, Juan-David
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Energy Consumption
Holt Method
Energy Efficiency
Colombia
topic Energy Consumption
Holt Method
Energy Efficiency
Colombia
description Energy production is constantly facing major challenges today, because despite initiatives to promote the insertion of renewable energy, electricity consumption has shown considerable growth in recent years. In order to use an instrument that facilitates forecasts and predictive processes for the design of strategic plans associated with energy management, the application of the Holt Method is proposed using data on electricity demand in Colombia, GDP per capita and industrial value added, making an analysis of the last 10 years, based on figures from the World Bank. The final results predict that energy consumption for the period 2018-2020 will be between 66,231 GWk and 66,885 GWk.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2020-10-14T16:03:35Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2020-10-14T16:03:35Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2020
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dc.type.driver.eng.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.spa.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo científico
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12442/6683
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8221
dc.identifier.url.none.fl_str_mv http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/8221
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12442/6683
https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8221
http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/8221
dc.language.iso.eng.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
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rights_invalid_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.mimetype.spa.fl_str_mv pdf
dc.publisher.eng.fl_str_mv Econjournals
dc.source.eng.fl_str_mv International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Vol. 10, N° 6 (2020)
institution Universidad Simón Bolívar
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spelling Contreras Salinas, Jheison29bb5464-20b7-4637-945f-bb9069da51f5López, Fernandoc3b885f7-9f3f-4259-9b2c-6a8b66f6636fRondon Rodriguez, Carlos Andres00621065-3b1d-4878-b43d-aab90d284aa0Hernández palma4, Hugo G.cf33547e-2d18-4e76-998c-8367f72949b8De-la-Hoz-Hernández, Juan-Davidd7115784-fb3b-4bd5-bcd3-77178ca162b62020-10-14T16:03:35Z2020-10-14T16:03:35Z2020https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12442/6683https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8221http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/8221Energy production is constantly facing major challenges today, because despite initiatives to promote the insertion of renewable energy, electricity consumption has shown considerable growth in recent years. In order to use an instrument that facilitates forecasts and predictive processes for the design of strategic plans associated with energy management, the application of the Holt Method is proposed using data on electricity demand in Colombia, GDP per capita and industrial value added, making an analysis of the last 10 years, based on figures from the World Bank. The final results predict that energy consumption for the period 2018-2020 will be between 66,231 GWk and 66,885 GWk.pdfengEconjournalsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2International Journal of Energy Economics and PolicyVol. 10, N° 6 (2020)Energy ConsumptionHolt MethodEnergy EfficiencyColombiaAnalysis of energy consumption in colombia using the holt methodinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleArtículo científicohttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Barassi, M.R., Yuqian, Z. (2017), Combination Forecasting of Energy Demand in the UK. Available from: https://www.ssrn.com/ abstract=2907296.Farhani, S., Ozturk, I. (2015), Causal relationship between CO2 emissions, real GDP, energy consumption, financial development, trade openness, and urbanization in Tunisia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 22(20), 15663-15676.Ghalehkhondabi, I., Ardjmand, E., Weckman, G.R., Young, W.A. (2017), An overview of energy demand forecasting methods published in 2005-2015. Energy Systems, 8(2), 411-447.Haiges, R., Wang, Y.D., Ghoshray, A., Roskilly, A.P. (2017), Forecasting electricity generation capacity in Malaysia: An auto regressive integrated moving average approach. Energy Procedia, 105, 3471- 3478.Hu, Y., Guo, D., Wang, M., Zhang, X., Wang, S. (2015), The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from china’s industrial sectors. Energies, 8(9), 9392-9406.Hyndman, R.J., Athanasopoulos, G. (2018), Forecasting: Principles and Practice. Melbourne, Australia: Monash University.Jalil, N.A.A., Ahmad, M.H., Mohamed, N. (2013), Electricity load demand forecasting using exponential smoothing methods. World Applied Sciences Journal, 22(11), 1540-1543.Lesaca, J.M.L., Guerrero, E.Z., Ubis, F.E., Bernardo, J.A. (2014), Memetic Algorithms in Operational Research Problems. Revista de Dirección y Administración de Empresas, 1(18), 1-19.Martínez, R., Zambrano, E., Nieto, J.J., Hernández, J., Costa, F. (2017), Evolución, vulnerabilidad e impactos económicos y sociales de El Niño 2015-2016 en América Latina. Investigaciones Geográficas, 68, 65-78.Mojica, D.J.D., Domínguez, A.B., Acosta, L.R., Montenegro, M.F., Palma, H.H., Cardona, S.A. (2015), Administrative function in the era of ICTs. Revista Lasallista de Investigación, 12(2), 139-151.Sant’Ana, P.H.M., Nebra, S., Simão, N.M., Dalmo, F.C. (2017), Energetic recovery of municipal solid waste scenario in São Paulo State, Brazil. In: WASTES-Solutions, Treatments and Opportunities. 2nd ed. Boca Raton, Florida: CRC Press. p1-7.Stephanidis, C., editor. (2018), HCI International 2018-Posters’ Extended Abstracts: 20th International Conference, HCI International 2018. Vol. 852. Las Vegas, NV, USA: Springer.Tratar, L.F., Strmčnik, E. (2016), The comparison of Holt-Winters method and multiple regression method: A case study. Energy, 109, 266-276.Ünal, Y.Z., Al-Turki, U.M., Zaim, S., Demirel, Ö.F., Görener, R. (2015), Developing Spreadsheet Models of Holt-Winter Methods and Solving with Microsoft Excel Solver and Differential Evaluation Technique: An Application to Tourism Sector. In: Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, 2015 International Conference. p1-8.Contreras, D. (2016), El impacto de El Niño en Colombia. Revista Fasecolda, 163, 42-46.Delgadillo-Ruiz, O., Ramírez-Moreno, P.P., Leos-Rodríguez, J.A., Salas González, J.M., Valdez-Cepeda, R.D. (2016), Pronósticos y series de tiempo de rendimientos de granos básicos en México. Acta Universitaria, 26(3), 23-32.Salcedo, D., Melo, L., Parra, D. (2016), Impactos de los fenómenos climáticos sobre el precio de los alimentos en Colombia. Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, 1, (34).Tovio, A.C., Alfaro, A.C. (2016), Análisis del comportamiento de las variables que determinan el circuito económico en Colombia. Aglala, 7(1), 94-121.Villada, F., Cadavid, D.R., Molina, J.D. (2014), Pronóstico del precio de la energía eléctrica usando redes neuronales artificiales. 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