Addressing Bias in Politician Characteristic Regression Discontinuity Designs
Códigos JEL: C18, C51, P00
- Autores:
-
Torres Paz, Santiago
- Tipo de recurso:
- Work document
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2023
- Institución:
- Universidad de los Andes
- Repositorio:
- Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/69950
- Acceso en línea:
- http://hdl.handle.net/1992/69950
- Palabra clave:
- Regression discontinuity designs
Close elections
Bias correction
Sensitivity analysis
Economía
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdf
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Addressing Bias in Politician Characteristic Regression Discontinuity Designs |
| title |
Addressing Bias in Politician Characteristic Regression Discontinuity Designs |
| spellingShingle |
Addressing Bias in Politician Characteristic Regression Discontinuity Designs Regression discontinuity designs Close elections Bias correction Sensitivity analysis Economía |
| title_short |
Addressing Bias in Politician Characteristic Regression Discontinuity Designs |
| title_full |
Addressing Bias in Politician Characteristic Regression Discontinuity Designs |
| title_fullStr |
Addressing Bias in Politician Characteristic Regression Discontinuity Designs |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Addressing Bias in Politician Characteristic Regression Discontinuity Designs |
| title_sort |
Addressing Bias in Politician Characteristic Regression Discontinuity Designs |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Torres Paz, Santiago |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Torres Paz, Santiago |
| dc.subject.keyword.none.fl_str_mv |
Regression discontinuity designs Close elections Bias correction Sensitivity analysis |
| topic |
Regression discontinuity designs Close elections Bias correction Sensitivity analysis Economía |
| dc.subject.themes.es_CO.fl_str_mv |
Economía |
| description |
Códigos JEL: C18, C51, P00 |
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2023 |
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2023-08-25T18:34:22Z |
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2023-08-25T18:34:22Z |
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2023-08 |
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10.57784/1992/69950 |
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eng |
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eng |
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Documentos CEDE;2023-24 |
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https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/020304.html |
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87 páginas |
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Universidad de los Andes |
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Facultad de Economía |
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Universidad de los Andes |
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Torres Paz, Santiago9b32fb10-6be0-41d9-add3-372cff0fce0b6002023-08-25T18:34:22Z2023-08-25T18:34:22Z2023-081657-7191http://hdl.handle.net/1992/6995010.57784/1992/69950Códigos JEL: C18, C51, P00Politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs are a popular strategy when attempting to casually link a specific trait of an elected politician with a given outcome. However, recent research has revealed that this methodology often fails to retrieve the target causal effect¿a problem also known as the PCRD estimation bias. In this paper, I provide a new econometric framework to address this limitation in applied research. First, I propose a covariate-adjusted local polynomial estimator that corrects for the PCRD estimation bias provided all relevant confounders are observed. I then leverage the statistical properties of this estimator to propose several decompositions of the bias term and discuss their potential applications. Next, I devise a strategy to assess the robustness of the new estimator to omitted confounders that could potentially invalidate results. Finally, I illustrate these methods through an application: a PCRD aimed at evaluating the impact of female leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic.Los diseños de regresión discontinua basados en características de los políticos (PCRD, por sus siglas en inglés) son una estrategia popular cuando se intenta vincular casualmente un rasgo específico de un político electo con un resultado determinado. Sin embargo, investigaciones recientes han mostrado que esta metodología a menudo no recupera el efecto causal objetivo, un problema también conocido como sesgo de estimación en los diseños de PCRD. En este artículo, proporciono un nuevo marco econométri- co para abordar esta limitación en la investigación aplicada. En primer lugar, propongo un estimador de polinomios locales ajustado por covariables que corrige el sesgo de estimación PCRD siempre que se observen todos los factores de confusión relevantes. A continuación, aprovecho las propiedades es- tadísticas de este estimador para proponer varias descomposiciones del término de sesgo y discutir sus posibles aplicaciones. A continuación, diseño una estrategia para evaluar la robustez del nuevo estima- dor frente a variables omitidas que podrían invalidar los resultados. Por último, ilustro estos métodos mediante una aplicación: un PCRD destinado a evaluar el impacto del liderazgo femenino durante la pandemia COVID-19.87 páginasapplication/pdfengUniversidad de los AndesFacultad de EconomíaDocumentos CEDE;2023-24https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/020304.htmlhttps://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Addressing Bias in Politician Characteristic Regression Discontinuity DesignsDocumento de trabajoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Texthttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/WPRegression discontinuity designsClose electionsBias correctionSensitivity analysisEconomíaPublicationLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81810https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/b34aac84-d0ef-4e15-ada6-4b2aa157d099/download5aa5c691a1ffe97abd12c2966efcb8d6MD51ORIGINALdcede2023-24.pdfdcede2023-24.pdfapplication/pdf12112564https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/f877ac53-2b90-42c3-beae-65d46f2956c7/download60292992960cb21a13a5749e4bb415f9MD52TEXTdcede2023-24.pdf.txtdcede2023-24.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain190087https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/95972a9b-52d5-4a72-9edb-96c9cb077ff2/downloadf2b24f7951964e243941ee446b406993MD53THUMBNAILdcede2023-24.pdf.jpgdcede2023-24.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg18364https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/848b4762-10f3-45dc-b154-0c92aec957fb/download417aa38ed73e868156f19c3e458d146eMD541992/69950oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/699502024-06-04 15:39:31.921https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdfopen.accesshttps://repositorio.uniandes.edu.coRepositorio institucional Sénecaadminrepositorio@uniandes.edu.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 |