Why oppose a peace agreement? : the relationship between belief systems, informational shortcuts, and attitudes towards the 2016 referendum in Colombia

n 2 October 2016, the proposed peace agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, or FARC) was narrowly defeated in a plebiscite that sought public approval for the deal. The "no" option received 50....

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Autores:
Muñoz Fuerte, Manuela
Gleditsch, Kristian
Mantilla, César
Tipo de recurso:
Fecha de publicación:
2018
Institución:
Universidad de los Andes
Repositorio:
Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/34862
Acceso en línea:
http://hdl.handle.net/1992/34862
Palabra clave:
Plebiscito - Investigaciones - Colombia - 2016
Referendum - Investigaciones - Colombia - 2016
Construcción de la paz - Investigaciones - Colombia
ColombiaPolítica y gobierno2016-
Gobierno y Asuntos Públicos
Rights
openAccess
License
https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdf
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dc.title.es_CO.fl_str_mv Why oppose a peace agreement? : the relationship between belief systems, informational shortcuts, and attitudes towards the 2016 referendum in Colombia
title Why oppose a peace agreement? : the relationship between belief systems, informational shortcuts, and attitudes towards the 2016 referendum in Colombia
spellingShingle Why oppose a peace agreement? : the relationship between belief systems, informational shortcuts, and attitudes towards the 2016 referendum in Colombia
Plebiscito - Investigaciones - Colombia - 2016
Referendum - Investigaciones - Colombia - 2016
Construcción de la paz - Investigaciones - Colombia
ColombiaPolítica y gobierno2016-
Gobierno y Asuntos Públicos
title_short Why oppose a peace agreement? : the relationship between belief systems, informational shortcuts, and attitudes towards the 2016 referendum in Colombia
title_full Why oppose a peace agreement? : the relationship between belief systems, informational shortcuts, and attitudes towards the 2016 referendum in Colombia
title_fullStr Why oppose a peace agreement? : the relationship between belief systems, informational shortcuts, and attitudes towards the 2016 referendum in Colombia
title_full_unstemmed Why oppose a peace agreement? : the relationship between belief systems, informational shortcuts, and attitudes towards the 2016 referendum in Colombia
title_sort Why oppose a peace agreement? : the relationship between belief systems, informational shortcuts, and attitudes towards the 2016 referendum in Colombia
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Muñoz Fuerte, Manuela
Gleditsch, Kristian
Mantilla, César
dc.contributor.advisor.none.fl_str_mv Weintraub, Michael
Pachón Buitrago, Mónica
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv Muñoz Fuerte, Manuela
Gleditsch, Kristian
Mantilla, César
dc.contributor.jury.none.fl_str_mv García Sánchez, Miguel
Bitar Giraldo, Sebastian Elías
dc.subject.keyword.es_CO.fl_str_mv Plebiscito - Investigaciones - Colombia - 2016
Referendum - Investigaciones - Colombia - 2016
Construcción de la paz - Investigaciones - Colombia
ColombiaPolítica y gobierno2016-
topic Plebiscito - Investigaciones - Colombia - 2016
Referendum - Investigaciones - Colombia - 2016
Construcción de la paz - Investigaciones - Colombia
ColombiaPolítica y gobierno2016-
Gobierno y Asuntos Públicos
dc.subject.themes.none.fl_str_mv Gobierno y Asuntos Públicos
description n 2 October 2016, the proposed peace agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, or FARC) was narrowly defeated in a plebiscite that sought public approval for the deal. The "no" option received 50.2 percent of votes cast, and less than 38 percent of the electorate cast a vote. Why did the majority of voters oppose the peace agreement? In a combined survey -a face-to-face sample in Bogotá and an online sample- conducted prior to the referendum, we identify voter cleavages using the principal component analysis (PCA) method. We find three consistent dimensions with profiles reflecting whether an individual is a 1) pro-status quo citizen; 2) a conservative-right voter; and 3) a citizen with a pronounced religious identity. In addition, we not only assess voters' choices in the plebiscite based on these profiles, but also examine how these profiles may predict voters' opinions on specific aspects of, and beliefs about, the agreement. Similar results are found when we replicate the PCA exercise using data from the 2016 Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) survey. Our findings suggest that voters are heterogeneous, but that different beliefs and attitudes about the referendum clustered in specific type of voters, which in turn shaped these voters? willingness to endorse the proposed agreement.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2018
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2020-06-10T09:24:03Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2020-06-10T09:24:03Z
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv Trabajo de grado - Maestría
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dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1992/34862
dc.identifier.pdf.none.fl_str_mv u820658.pdf
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dc.identifier.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Institucional Séneca
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identifier_str_mv u820658.pdf
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dc.publisher.program.es_CO.fl_str_mv Maestría en Políticas Públicas
dc.publisher.faculty.es_CO.fl_str_mv Escuela de Gobierno Alberto Lleras Camargo
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spelling Al consultar y hacer uso de este recurso, está aceptando las condiciones de uso establecidas por los autores.https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Weintraub, Michael02c6902e-d3b6-44c6-ac4d-bdf315954feb500Pachón Buitrago, Mónicadcaaa0df-4e0d-412e-aa10-6a43039078d3500Muñoz Fuerte, Manuelacb08a5ad-79ce-481a-85b6-998de499dde9500Gleditsch, Kristiand0c310fa-c00c-488e-b47b-6ffb7a206566500Mantilla, Césard322b05b-a8c2-492d-980e-14f17c5053a2500García Sánchez, MiguelBitar Giraldo, Sebastian Elías2020-06-10T09:24:03Z2020-06-10T09:24:03Z2018http://hdl.handle.net/1992/34862u820658.pdfinstname:Universidad de los Andesreponame:Repositorio Institucional Sénecarepourl:https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/n 2 October 2016, the proposed peace agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, or FARC) was narrowly defeated in a plebiscite that sought public approval for the deal. The "no" option received 50.2 percent of votes cast, and less than 38 percent of the electorate cast a vote. Why did the majority of voters oppose the peace agreement? In a combined survey -a face-to-face sample in Bogotá and an online sample- conducted prior to the referendum, we identify voter cleavages using the principal component analysis (PCA) method. We find three consistent dimensions with profiles reflecting whether an individual is a 1) pro-status quo citizen; 2) a conservative-right voter; and 3) a citizen with a pronounced religious identity. In addition, we not only assess voters' choices in the plebiscite based on these profiles, but also examine how these profiles may predict voters' opinions on specific aspects of, and beliefs about, the agreement. Similar results are found when we replicate the PCA exercise using data from the 2016 Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) survey. Our findings suggest that voters are heterogeneous, but that different beliefs and attitudes about the referendum clustered in specific type of voters, which in turn shaped these voters? willingness to endorse the proposed agreement.El 2 de octubre de 2016, el acuerdo de paz propuesto entre el gobierno colombiano y las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia o FARC) fue derrotado por un plebiscito que buscó la aprobación pública para el acuerdo. La opción de "no" recibió el 50.2 por ciento de los votos emitidos, y menos del 38 por ciento del electorado emitió un voto. ¿Por qué la mayoría de los votantes se opuso al acuerdo de paz? En una encuesta combinada -una muestra cara a cara en Bogotá y una muestra en línea- realizada antes del referéndum, identificamos divisiones de votantes utilizando el método de análisis de componentes principales (PCA). Encontramos tres dimensiones coherentes con los perfiles que reflejan si un individuo es un 1) ciudadano pro-status quo; 2) un votante de derecho conservador; y 3) un ciudadano con una identidad religiosa pronunciada. Además, no solo evaluamos las elecciones de los votantes en el plebiscito en función de estos perfiles, sino que también examinamos cómo estos perfiles pueden predecir las opiniones de los votantes sobre aspectos específicos y creencias acerca del acuerdo. Se encuentran resultados similares cuando replicamos el ejercicio de PCA utilizando datos de la encuesta del Proyecto de Opinión Pública Latinoamericana (LAPOP) de 2016. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que los votantes son heterogéneos, pero que diferentes creencias y actitudes sobre el referéndum se agruparon en un tipo específico de votantes, lo que a su vez dio forma a la voluntad de estos votantes de respaldar el acuerdo propuesto.Magíster en Políticas PúblicasMaestría53 hojasapplication/pdfengUniandesMaestría en Políticas PúblicasEscuela de Gobierno Alberto Lleras Camargoinstname:Universidad de los Andesreponame:Repositorio Institucional SénecaWhy oppose a peace agreement? : the relationship between belief systems, informational shortcuts, and attitudes towards the 2016 referendum in ColombiaTrabajo de grado - Maestríainfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesishttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Texthttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TMPlebiscito - Investigaciones - Colombia - 2016Referendum - Investigaciones - Colombia - 2016Construcción de la paz - Investigaciones - ColombiaColombiaPolítica y gobierno2016-Gobierno y Asuntos PúblicosPublicationORIGINALu820658.pdfapplication/pdf1066376https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/4b5aab8f-e27f-4102-b1ae-c13a73c26884/downloaddabe595bc4de6e02ad0aa523f42b1ca2MD51THUMBNAILu820658.pdf.jpgu820658.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg21740https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/e20ddbfe-003d-47b5-81ba-f9d5070020d5/downloadc30f02b4094b178abea1675cb81db769MD55TEXTu820658.pdf.txtu820658.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain103398https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/1f61c7cf-59e3-45e5-a335-285c853223f0/download199b3b1aeca676ee4207bbfdd371d68dMD541992/34862oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/348622023-10-10 16:44:27.515https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdfopen.accesshttps://repositorio.uniandes.edu.coRepositorio institucional Sénecaadminrepositorio@uniandes.edu.co