Close Elections Regression Discontinuity Designs in Multi-seat Systems
Códigos JEL: C01, C21, P48
- Autores:
-
Torres Paz, Santiago
- Tipo de recurso:
- Work document
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2023
- Institución:
- Universidad de los Andes
- Repositorio:
- Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/69851
- Acceso en línea:
- http://hdl.handle.net/1992/69851
- Palabra clave:
- Regression discontinuity designs
Multi-seat electoral systems
Close elections
Causal inference
Economía
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdf
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Close Elections Regression Discontinuity Designs in Multi-seat Systems |
| title |
Close Elections Regression Discontinuity Designs in Multi-seat Systems |
| spellingShingle |
Close Elections Regression Discontinuity Designs in Multi-seat Systems Regression discontinuity designs Multi-seat electoral systems Close elections Causal inference Economía |
| title_short |
Close Elections Regression Discontinuity Designs in Multi-seat Systems |
| title_full |
Close Elections Regression Discontinuity Designs in Multi-seat Systems |
| title_fullStr |
Close Elections Regression Discontinuity Designs in Multi-seat Systems |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Close Elections Regression Discontinuity Designs in Multi-seat Systems |
| title_sort |
Close Elections Regression Discontinuity Designs in Multi-seat Systems |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Torres Paz, Santiago |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Torres Paz, Santiago |
| dc.subject.keyword.none.fl_str_mv |
Regression discontinuity designs Multi-seat electoral systems Close elections Causal inference |
| topic |
Regression discontinuity designs Multi-seat electoral systems Close elections Causal inference Economía |
| dc.subject.themes.es_CO.fl_str_mv |
Economía |
| description |
Códigos JEL: C01, C21, P48 |
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2023 |
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2023-08-22T20:21:19Z |
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2023-08 |
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10.57784/1992/69851 |
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eng |
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eng |
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Documentos CEDE;2023-23 |
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https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/020292.html |
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74 páginas |
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Universidad de los Andes |
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Facultad de Economía |
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Universidad de los Andes |
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Torres Paz, Santiago059084e2-1ccd-45fb-bba7-21a6cc8bad686002023-08-22T20:21:19Z2023-08-22T20:21:19Z2023-081657-7191http://hdl.handle.net/1992/6985110.57784/1992/69851Códigos JEL: C01, C21, P48This article presents a general framework for using continuity-based regression discontinuity designs as an identification strategy in multi-seat electoral contests. First, I extend singlewinner- close-race designs by developing precise definitions of electoral tightness in elections where multiple winners are possible. These narrowness measures can be used to formulate forcing variables for conducting regression discontinuity designs. Moreover, I show that it is possible to construct different running variables to identify different (local) causal effects. I further specialize my method to proportional election systems, the most prominent family of multi-seat assignment methods, covering its most common variations: the highest average methods and largest remainder algorithms. The proposed approach improves existing methodologies for causal inference on multi-seat systems in four dimensions: it relies on weaker identifying assumptions, estimated quantities have a clear interpretation as causal effects, it does not hinge on discretionary choices, and it is easier to scale into problems with many political entities and seats.Este artículo presenta un marco general para utilizar Diseños de Regresión Discontinua soportados en el supuesto de continuidad local como estrategia de identificación causal en contiendas electorales que reparten varios escaños. En primer lugar, amplío los diseños de un único ganador desarrollando definiciones precisas de «estrechez» electoral en elecciones en las que son posibles múltiples ganadores. Estas medidas de estrechez pueden utilizarse para formular variables de focalización que permiten emplear diseños de regresión discontinua. Además, muestro que es posible construir diferentes variables de focalización para identificar diferentes efectos causales (locales). Además, especializo mi método a los sistemas de elección proporcional, la familia más importante de métodos de asignación de escaños múltiples, abarcando sus variantes más comunes: los métodos de la media más alta y los algoritmos del residuo más grande. El enfoque propuesto rumora las metodologías existentes de inferencia causal en sistemas con varios escaños en cuatro dimensiones: se basa en supuestos de identificación más débiles, las cantidades estimadas tienen una interpretación clara como efectos causales, no depende de elecciones discrecionales y es más fácil de escalar a problemas con muchas entidades políticas y escaños.74 páginasapplication/pdfengUniversidad de los AndesFacultad de EconomíaDocumentos CEDE;2023-23https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/020292.htmlhttps://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Close Elections Regression Discontinuity Designs in Multi-seat SystemsDocumento de trabajoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Texthttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/WPRegression discontinuity designsMulti-seat electoral systemsClose electionsCausal inferenceEconomíaPublicationORIGINALdcede2023-23.pdfdcede2023-23.pdfapplication/pdf10840318https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/2ecee9f8-55b3-4d07-9033-e64ea0446641/download4ee1af345dfacbf7561c7b39ed86f1e8MD52TEXTdcede2023-23.pdf.txtdcede2023-23.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain137639https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/80346d44-8f7c-4bc9-b5b8-b7221c9b42c2/download2a2ce30cb3b1c477d5a0074aaf348016MD53THUMBNAILdcede2023-23.pdf.jpgdcede2023-23.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg18530https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/58599bf9-b4ee-4976-92d5-e9e2c7b9a5c4/download092bc52dee7c819c4f26d0d171b2c133MD54LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81810https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/b7001dec-5b02-45d6-bed9-ca7d94b489e4/download5aa5c691a1ffe97abd12c2966efcb8d6MD511992/69851oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/698512024-06-04 15:42:10.567https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdfopen.accesshttps://repositorio.uniandes.edu.coRepositorio institucional Sénecaadminrepositorio@uniandes.edu.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 |