The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement

Well-intended policies often have negative unintended consequences if they fail to foresee the different ways in which individuals may respond to the new set of incentives. When widespread and persistent, these may lead to a net reduction of social welfare. Focusing on the case of anti-drug policies...

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Autores:
Mejía, Daniel
Prem, Mounu
Vargas, Juan F.
Tipo de recurso:
Work document
Fecha de publicación:
2019
Institución:
Universidad de los Andes
Repositorio:
Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
Idioma:
spa
OAI Identifier:
oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/41103
Acceso en línea:
http://hdl.handle.net/1992/41103
Palabra clave:
Coca growing
Drug war
Anticipation effects
Policy announcement
Colombia
K42, D78
Rights
openAccess
License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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spelling Al consultar y hacer uso de este recurso, está aceptando las condiciones de uso establecidas por los autores.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Mejía, Daniel1d23235a-cdf3-4fe1-a1a4-0a5f319352ab400Prem, Mounua7dd9d57-6ffe-4ef9-94ae-64caa0284043500Vargas, Juan F.ccf21cce-b417-41fe-8976-23bdb1f23d394002020-07-28T17:16:19Z2020-07-28T17:16:19Z20191657-5334http://hdl.handle.net/1992/411031657-719110.57784/1992/41103instname:Universidad de los Andesreponame:Repositorio Institucional Sénecarepourl:https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/Well-intended policies often have negative unintended consequences if they fail to foresee the different ways in which individuals may respond to the new set of incentives. When widespread and persistent, these may lead to a net reduction of social welfare. Focusing on the case of anti-drug policies, in this paper we show that the recent unprecedented surge in the growing of illicit coca crops in Colombia was the result of a naive and untimely policy announcement during peace negotiations between the government and the FARC guerrillas. On May 2014, the parties¿ peace delegations issued a press release announcing that coca-growing farmers would receive material incentives for voluntary crop substitution once a final agreement had been reached. To evaluate the anticipation effect of this announcement we exploit the cross sectional variation on both the cost advantage of growing coca (using an ecological measure of coca suitability) and the expected benefits of doing so (using a predicted measure of where the material benefits would h ave b een t argeted). Coca plantations levels remained high even after the implementation of the announced incentives¿ scheme. We explain this persistence by documenting that the surge in coca growing is differentially higher in areas with presence illegal armed groups, that benefited financially from availability of a key input in the drug trade.46 páginasspaUniversidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDEDocumentos CEDE No. 39 Octubre de 2019https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/017535.htmlThe Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy AnnouncementDocumento de trabajoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Texthttps://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/WPCoca growingDrug warAnticipation effectsPolicy announcementColombiaK42, D78Facultad de EconomíaPublicationORIGINALdcede2019-39.pdfdcede2019-39.pdfapplication/pdf1173734https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/62ae5323-5ba2-49a5-805f-61ca900d4e4d/download29b166793b776a57e039ba0262578e3dMD51THUMBNAILdcede2019-39.pdf.jpgdcede2019-39.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg10225https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/2b235e5e-1fca-4aaf-9c6d-b0f7ad197d7f/download80cd14109cb230bb74eb035122e13e19MD55TEXTdcede2019-39.pdf.txtdcede2019-39.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain98633https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/423b3189-828d-4cda-91e3-f7823e975d1d/downloadaa75efdfd15cb6ce42c25b4d223cddf3MD541992/41103oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/411032024-06-04 15:40:20.35http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/open.accesshttps://repositorio.uniandes.edu.coRepositorio institucional Sénecaadminrepositorio@uniandes.edu.co
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement
title The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement
spellingShingle The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement
Coca growing
Drug war
Anticipation effects
Policy announcement
Colombia
K42, D78
title_short The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement
title_full The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement
title_fullStr The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement
title_full_unstemmed The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement
title_sort The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Mejía, Daniel
Prem, Mounu
Vargas, Juan F.
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv Mejía, Daniel
Prem, Mounu
Vargas, Juan F.
dc.subject.keyword.none.fl_str_mv Coca growing
Drug war
Anticipation effects
Policy announcement
Colombia
topic Coca growing
Drug war
Anticipation effects
Policy announcement
Colombia
K42, D78
dc.subject.jel.none.fl_str_mv K42, D78
description Well-intended policies often have negative unintended consequences if they fail to foresee the different ways in which individuals may respond to the new set of incentives. When widespread and persistent, these may lead to a net reduction of social welfare. Focusing on the case of anti-drug policies, in this paper we show that the recent unprecedented surge in the growing of illicit coca crops in Colombia was the result of a naive and untimely policy announcement during peace negotiations between the government and the FARC guerrillas. On May 2014, the parties¿ peace delegations issued a press release announcing that coca-growing farmers would receive material incentives for voluntary crop substitution once a final agreement had been reached. To evaluate the anticipation effect of this announcement we exploit the cross sectional variation on both the cost advantage of growing coca (using an ecological measure of coca suitability) and the expected benefits of doing so (using a predicted measure of where the material benefits would h ave b een t argeted). Coca plantations levels remained high even after the implementation of the announced incentives¿ scheme. We explain this persistence by documenting that the surge in coca growing is differentially higher in areas with presence illegal armed groups, that benefited financially from availability of a key input in the drug trade.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2019
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2020-07-28T17:16:19Z
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dc.relation.ispartofseries.none.fl_str_mv Documentos CEDE No. 39 Octubre de 2019
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dc.format.extent.none.fl_str_mv 46 páginas
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE
institution Universidad de los Andes
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