Tax and public expenditure trends Colombia: Lessons for the new administration of 2022-2026
Códigos JEL: H2, H44, H63, O54
- Autores:
-
Clavijo Jiménez, Sergio Alejandro
- Tipo de recurso:
- Work document
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2022
- Institución:
- Universidad de los Andes
- Repositorio:
- Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/63101
- Acceso en línea:
- http://hdl.handle.net/1992/63101
- Palabra clave:
- Taxes
Public goods
Public debt
Latin America
Economía
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdf
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Tax and public expenditure trends Colombia: Lessons for the new administration of 2022-2026 |
| title |
Tax and public expenditure trends Colombia: Lessons for the new administration of 2022-2026 |
| spellingShingle |
Tax and public expenditure trends Colombia: Lessons for the new administration of 2022-2026 Taxes Public goods Public debt Latin America Economía |
| title_short |
Tax and public expenditure trends Colombia: Lessons for the new administration of 2022-2026 |
| title_full |
Tax and public expenditure trends Colombia: Lessons for the new administration of 2022-2026 |
| title_fullStr |
Tax and public expenditure trends Colombia: Lessons for the new administration of 2022-2026 |
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Tax and public expenditure trends Colombia: Lessons for the new administration of 2022-2026 |
| title_sort |
Tax and public expenditure trends Colombia: Lessons for the new administration of 2022-2026 |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Clavijo Jiménez, Sergio Alejandro |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Clavijo Jiménez, Sergio Alejandro |
| dc.subject.keyword.none.fl_str_mv |
Taxes Public goods Public debt Latin America |
| topic |
Taxes Public goods Public debt Latin America Economía |
| dc.subject.themes.es_CO.fl_str_mv |
Economía |
| description |
Códigos JEL: H2, H44, H63, O54 |
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2022 |
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2022-11-10T18:58:11Z |
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10.57784/1992/63101 |
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eng |
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eng |
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Documentos CEDE;2022-44 |
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https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/020534.html |
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32 páginas |
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Universidad de los Andes |
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Facultad de Economía |
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Universidad de los Andes |
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Clavijo Jiménez, Sergio Alejandroca2c0a10-4462-433e-ae59-02ca5c33c8506002022-11-10T18:58:11Z2022-11-10T18:58:11Z2022-111657-7191http://hdl.handle.net/1992/6310110.57784/1992/63101Códigos JEL: H2, H44, H63, O54This document examines the macro-economic performance of Colombia before pandemic (2015-2019) and then assess prospects over 2020-2024, with particular emphasis on fiscal stabilization. We first provide a long-term view and extract some of the fiscal characteristic of Colombia such as: i) directional persistence in tax and spending adjustments; and ii) searching for modular effect (building-blocks), given a complex "political-economy" that hair-cuts the proposed ambitious reforms. Then we turn to carry-out some public finance simulations regarding the required fiscal balance stemming from additional social expenditure and tax revenue efforts. By highlighting public expenditure rigidities, associated mainly with decentralization andmounting pressure for additional social expenditure, we also discuss prospects of the new Fiscal Rule (under Law 2155 of 2021) focusing on anchors related to debt-ratio targets and primary balance requirements. We conclude with some recommendations regarding a "political economy" strategy in order to pursue several structural reforms under the new Administration of 2022-2026, where computing a so-called "Social Betas" could help in setting priorities.Este documento examina el desempeño macro-económico de Colombia en prepandemia (2015-2019) y procede a evaluar las perspectivas del periodo 2020-2024, con particular énfasis en la estabilización fiscal. Primero, realizamos un análisis de mediano plazo sobre dichas perspectivas fiscales y después extraemos las características estructurales de Colombia referidas a: i) "persistencia direccional" en materia de tributación y gasto público; y ii) búsqueda de "efectos modulares" (building-blocks), dada la complejidad de una "economía política" que tiende a recortar significativamente el alcance de las leyes presentadas ante el Congreso. Finalmente, realizamos una serie de simulaciones fiscales para establecer el balance primario requerido para estabilizar la relación deuda pública/PIB, teniéndose altas presiones de gasto social. Al establecer las rigideces que enfrenta la estructura de gasto público en Colombia, asociadas al proceso de descentralización y obligaciones en seguridad social, concluimos con la esperanzadora señal de que la nueva Regla Fiscal (Ley 2155 del 2021) podrá focalizarse en dicha relación Deuda/PIB y usar como instrumento el balance primario para estabilizar dicha relación. La estrategia de "economía política" resultará vital para lograr explotar adecuadamente los llamados "Betas Sociales" de las reformas estructurales aun pendientes.32 páginasapplication/pdfengUniversidad de los AndesFacultad de EconomíaDocumentos CEDE;2022-44https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/020534.htmlhttps://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Tax and public expenditure trends Colombia: Lessons for the new administration of 2022-2026Documento de trabajoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Texthttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/WPTaxesPublic goodsPublic debtLatin AmericaEconomíaPublicationLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81810https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/4cef4454-f32a-4d3b-8d05-126610603cd3/download5aa5c691a1ffe97abd12c2966efcb8d6MD51TEXTdcede2022-44.pdf.txtdcede2022-44.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain55214https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/d3a9201f-e75e-4645-8afc-bc5ee2e7eb44/downloaddc4648075922f981ed34640d9c7f3543MD53ORIGINALdcede2022-44.pdfdcede2022-44.pdfapplication/pdf10189145https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/41742e42-78c4-464c-be2d-954aef61783b/downloadb8303cfa76d7863b63352656e0129a00MD52THUMBNAILdcede2022-44.pdf.jpgdcede2022-44.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg18115https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/fc93f333-b56a-4969-8a7a-115fa8fe93f6/downloadc11f6520e84efd64d2946ce9cbd29491MD541992/63101oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/631012024-06-04 15:25:46.946https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdfopen.accesshttps://repositorio.uniandes.edu.coRepositorio institucional Sénecaadminrepositorio@uniandes.edu.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 |