Do natural disasters have long-term effects on growth?

Large natural disasters (LNDs) are ubiquitous phenomena with potentially large impacts on the infrastructure and population of countries and on their economic activity in general. Using a panel of 113 countries and 36 years of data, I examine the relationship between different measures of natural disaster impact and long-run economic growth. The sample is partitioned in two separate ways: according to the amount and type of disasters that countries have experienced and to the size of those disasters. For each partition, I present two sets of econometric estimations. The first regressions identify short-run and longer-lasting effects of LNDs. However, these first estimations do not distinguish between temporary but persistent effects and truly permanent ones. I thus estimate a structural model that allows me to identify permanent changes. The results of the first regressions show that for some of the groups of countries the disaster impact persists beyond the 2-5 years in which reconstruction and adaptation are expected to have an effect on the economy. However, the estimates using the structural model show that only for a very small number of countries which share a history of highly devastating natural disasters the negative effects are truly permanent.

• Autores: Jaramillo Herrera, Christian Rafael
• Tipo de recurso: Work document
• Fecha de publicación: 2009
• Institución: Universidad de los Andes
• Repositorio: Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
• Idioma: eng
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/8145
• Acceso en línea: http://hdl.handle.net/1992/8145
• Palabra clave: Natural disasters; Catastrophes; Hurricanes; Earthquakes; Growth; Panel data; Desastres naturales - Aspectos económicos; Crecimiento económico; Modelos econométricos; O11, O19, Q54
• Rights: openAccess
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/