The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations
Códigos JEL.: E31, E71, F31, G41
- Autores:
-
Delgado, Martha Elena
Herreño, Juan
Hofstetter Gascón, Marc
Pedemonte, Mathieu
- Tipo de recurso:
- Work document
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2024
- Institución:
- Universidad de los Andes
- Repositorio:
- Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/74201
- Acceso en línea:
- https://hdl.handle.net/1992/74201
- Palabra clave:
- Expectations
Exchange rate
Firms
Economía
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdf
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The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations |
| title |
The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations |
| spellingShingle |
The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations Expectations Exchange rate Firms Economía |
| title_short |
The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations |
| title_full |
The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations |
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The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations |
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The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations |
| title_sort |
The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Delgado, Martha Elena Herreño, Juan Hofstetter Gascón, Marc Pedemonte, Mathieu |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Delgado, Martha Elena Herreño, Juan Hofstetter Gascón, Marc Pedemonte, Mathieu |
| dc.subject.keyword.none.fl_str_mv |
Expectations Exchange rate Firms |
| topic |
Expectations Exchange rate Firms Economía |
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Economía |
| description |
Códigos JEL.: E31, E71, F31, G41 |
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2024 |
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2024-04-08T15:56:41Z |
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10.57784/1992/74201 |
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1657-7191 10.57784/1992/74201 |
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eng |
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eng |
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Documentos CEDE; 2024-12 |
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https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/021114.html |
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42 páginas |
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application/pdf |
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Universidad de los Andes |
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Facultad de Economía |
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Universidad de los Andes |
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Delgado, Martha ElenaHerreño, JuanHofstetter Gascón, MarcPedemonte, Mathieu2024-04-08T15:56:41Z2024-04-08T15:56:41Z2024-041657-7191https://hdl.handle.net/1992/7420110.57784/1992/74201Códigos JEL.: E31, E71, F31, G41We estimate the causal effects of a shift in the expected future exchange rate of a local currency against the US dollar on a representative sample of firms in an open economy. We survey a nationally representative sample of firms and provide the one-year-ahead nominal exchange rate forecast published by the local central bank to a random sub-sample of firm managers. The treatment is effective in shifting exchange rate and inflation expectations and perceptions. These effects are persistent and larger for non-exporting firms. Linking survey responses with administrative census data, we find that the treatment affects the dynamics of export and import quantities and prices at the firm level, with differential effects for exports to destination countries that use the US dollar as their currency. We instrument exchange rate expectations with the variation induced by the treatment and estimate a positive elasticity of a future expected depreciation in import expenditures.Estimamos los efectos causales de un cambio en la expectativa del tipo de cambio de una moneda local frente al dólar estadounidense en una muestra representativa de empresas en una economía abierta. Encuestamos una muestra representativa a nivel nacional de empresas y proporcionamos el pronóstico del tipo de cambio nominal a un año publicado por el banco central local a una submuestra aleatoria de gerentes de empresas. El tratamiento es efectivo en cambiar las expectativas y percepciones del tipo de cambio y la inflación. Estos efectos son persistentes y mayores para las empresas que no exportan. Vinculando las respuestas de la encuesta con datos censales administrativos, encontramos que el tratamiento afecta la dinámica de las cantidades y precios de exportación e importación a nivel de empresa, con efectos diferenciales para las exportaciones a destinos que utilizan el dólar estadounidense como su moneda. Instrumentamos las expectativas de tipo de cambio con la variación inducida por el tratamiento y estimamos una elasticidad positiva de una futura depreciación esperada en las importaciones.42 páginasapplication/pdfengUniversidad de los AndesFacultad de EconomíaDocumentos CEDE; 2024-12https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/021114.htmlhttps://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2The Causal Effects of Expected DepreciationsDocumento de trabajoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Texthttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/WPExpectationsExchange rateFirmsEconomíaPublicationORIGINALdcede2024-12.pdfdcede2024-12.pdfapplication/pdf9238559https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/b9dd8f59-daed-4a7e-97db-ae7a7713d11b/downloadb94d18cdb5367790d186e4bdf68bfc8eMD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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