"Tropical" real business cycles? a bayesian exploration

Can frictionless small open economy models driven solely by technology shocks account for business cycles in developing countries? We don't find evidence of it.We build a DSGE model that jointly includes a variety of real perturbations in addition to technology shocks, such as procyclical fisca...

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Autores:
Fernández, Andrés
Tipo de recurso:
Work document
Fecha de publicación:
2011
Institución:
Universidad de los Andes
Repositorio:
Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/8281
Acceso en línea:
http://hdl.handle.net/1992/8281
Palabra clave:
Business cycles
Eveloping economies
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models
Small open economy models
Bayesian estimation
Ciclos económicos - Colombia
Mercados emergentes
E32, F41, F47, C11
Rights
openAccess
License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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network_name_str Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
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dc.title.none.fl_str_mv "Tropical" real business cycles? a bayesian exploration
dc.title.alternative.none.fl_str_mv ¿Ciclos de Negocios Reales en Economías "Tropicales"? una Exploración Bayesiana
title "Tropical" real business cycles? a bayesian exploration
spellingShingle "Tropical" real business cycles? a bayesian exploration
Business cycles
Eveloping economies
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models
Small open economy models
Bayesian estimation
Ciclos económicos - Colombia
Mercados emergentes
E32, F41, F47, C11
title_short "Tropical" real business cycles? a bayesian exploration
title_full "Tropical" real business cycles? a bayesian exploration
title_fullStr "Tropical" real business cycles? a bayesian exploration
title_full_unstemmed "Tropical" real business cycles? a bayesian exploration
title_sort "Tropical" real business cycles? a bayesian exploration
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Fernández, Andrés
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv Fernández, Andrés
dc.subject.keyword.none.fl_str_mv Business cycles
Eveloping economies
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models
Small open economy models
Bayesian estimation
topic Business cycles
Eveloping economies
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models
Small open economy models
Bayesian estimation
Ciclos económicos - Colombia
Mercados emergentes
E32, F41, F47, C11
dc.subject.armarc.none.fl_str_mv Ciclos económicos - Colombia
Mercados emergentes
dc.subject.jel.none.fl_str_mv E32, F41, F47, C11
description Can frictionless small open economy models driven solely by technology shocks account for business cycles in developing countries? We don't find evidence of it.We build a DSGE model that jointly includes a variety of real perturbations in addition to technology shocks, such as procyclical fiscal policies;terms of trade fluctuations;and perturbations to the foreign interest rate coupled with financial frictions and estimate it using Bayesian methods on high and low frequency data from a developing and "tropical"- country, Colombia.We find interest rate shocks to be crucial and that financial frictions play a central role as propagating mechanisms of transitory technology shocks.These two driving forces alone can account well for the observed properties of the Colombian business cycle.Other structural shocks such as terms of trade fluctuations and level shifts in the technology process do not appear to be relevant in the past decade and a half, but their importance increases when a longer span of data is considered.
publishDate 2011
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2011
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2018-09-27T16:51:49Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2018-09-27T16:51:49Z
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv Documento de trabajo
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dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1992/8281
dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv 1657-7191
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.57784/1992/8281
dc.identifier.instname.spa.fl_str_mv instname:Universidad de los Andes
dc.identifier.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Institucional Séneca
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instname:Universidad de los Andes
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url http://hdl.handle.net/1992/8281
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.ispartofseries.none.fl_str_mv Documentos CEDE No. 41 Septiembre de 2011
dc.relation.repec.spa.fl_str_mv https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/009248.html
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dc.format.extent.none.fl_str_mv 40 páginas
dc.format.mimetype.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE
institution Universidad de los Andes
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spelling Al consultar y hacer uso de este recurso, está aceptando las condiciones de uso establecidas por los autores.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Fernández, Andrés49f82853-2c96-4ab9-bbd7-552a9b5cc6465002018-09-27T16:51:49Z2018-09-27T16:51:49Z20111657-5334http://hdl.handle.net/1992/82811657-719110.57784/1992/8281instname:Universidad de los Andesreponame:Repositorio Institucional Sénecarepourl:https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/Can frictionless small open economy models driven solely by technology shocks account for business cycles in developing countries? We don't find evidence of it.We build a DSGE model that jointly includes a variety of real perturbations in addition to technology shocks, such as procyclical fiscal policies;terms of trade fluctuations;and perturbations to the foreign interest rate coupled with financial frictions and estimate it using Bayesian methods on high and low frequency data from a developing and "tropical"- country, Colombia.We find interest rate shocks to be crucial and that financial frictions play a central role as propagating mechanisms of transitory technology shocks.These two driving forces alone can account well for the observed properties of the Colombian business cycle.Other structural shocks such as terms of trade fluctuations and level shifts in the technology process do not appear to be relevant in the past decade and a half, but their importance increases when a longer span of data is considered.¿Pueden los modelos de economías pequeñas y abiertas, desprovistos de fricciones reales, y con sólo choques tecnológicos, explicar los ciclos económicos en países en desarrollo? No encontramos evidencia que así se compruebe. Construimos un modelo dinámico y estocástico de equilibro general (DSGE, por sus siglas en inglés) que incluye, además de choques tecnológicos, perturbaciones reales tales como políticas fiscales procíclicas, fluctuaciones en los términos de intercambio, perturbaciones en el tipo de interés externo junto con fricciones financieras. Estimamos el modelo usando métodos Bayesianos con datos de alta y baja frecuencia de un país en desarrollo y "tropical" Colombia. Encontramos que los choques en el tipo de interés son los más importantes y que las fricciones financieras juegan un papel fundamental como mecanismos de propagación de choques tecnológicos transitorios. Con sólo estas dos fuerzas es posible reproducir las propiedades del ciclo económico colombiano. Otros choques estructurales, tales como las fluctuaciones en los términos de intercambio y los cambios de nivel en el proceso de la tecnología, no parecen haber sido relevantes en la última década y media, pero su importancia aumenta cuando se estudian datos correspondientes a períodos de tiempo más largos.40 páginasapplication/pdfengUniversidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDEDocumentos CEDE No. 41 Septiembre de 2011https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/009248.html"Tropical" real business cycles? a bayesian exploration¿Ciclos de Negocios Reales en Economías "Tropicales"? una Exploración BayesianaDocumento de trabajoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Texthttps://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/WPBusiness cyclesEveloping economiesDynamic stochastic general equilibrium modelsSmall open economy modelsBayesian estimationCiclos económicos - ColombiaMercados emergentesE32, F41, F47, C11Facultad de EconomíaPublicationTEXTdcede2011-41.pdf.txtdcede2011-41.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain324456https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/21e11492-7986-43a5-8e50-ee380b9166b3/download692220d6183dfe733ebc612f3b4948ddMD54ORIGINALdcede2011-41.pdfdcede2011-41.pdfapplication/pdf1280597https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/2b714015-4bee-4205-bc3b-e1a570cd80c2/download379c679fc16be9fa51d29dce9561ec5bMD51THUMBNAILdcede2011-41.pdf.jpgdcede2011-41.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg7951https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/45e65bd1-058b-4c54-8f79-3ebfa67aa5ed/downloadf92ba6ee53a4f298d18353906df70edeMD551992/8281oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/82812024-06-04 15:48:44.595http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/open.accesshttps://repositorio.uniandes.edu.coRepositorio institucional Sénecaadminrepositorio@uniandes.edu.co