Los efectos de las reglas fiscales sobre la inversión pública. el caso de países dependientes de recursos naturales

A recent interest in studying the effects of Fiscal Rules (FR) over public investment has emerged in the literature. This document follows this strand of research, asking for the effects that FR have had on public investment as a percentage of GDP and on the cyclicality of it, with a special focus on resource dependent countries. Studying the behavior of public investment in resource dependent countries is important for at least two reasons: 1) it can be interpreted as the mean by which the finite natural endowment that is extracted can secure a future flow of resources similar to that perceived by the exploitation of the natural resources, making these economies sustainable and 2) because of the procyclical behavior public investment has shown historically (which could hamper the efficiency of it). Using a difference in difference strategy applied to a panel of 41 resource dependent countries (1985-2015) and differentiating between types of FR, we find that second generation rules, defined as rules that include structural objectives, objectives corrected by the cycle, or escape clauses, have a positive effect on public investment as a percentage of GDP. FR that donþt include these features, on the contrary, are associated with cuts in investment. When conditioning the effects of FR on an index of institutional quality, we find that the effects depend positively on it, initiating in cuts and reaching augments of investment. With respect to the procyclicality of public investment, regardless of whether rules are second generation or not, we find that FR help reducing this bias.

• Autores: Vergara Silva, Juan Camilo; Ergueta Paravicino, Alejandra
• Fecha de publicación: 2020
• Institución: Universidad de los Andes
• Repositorio: Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/50901
• Acceso en línea: http://hdl.handle.net/1992/50901
• Palabra clave: Hacienda pública; Política fiscal; Ciclos económicos; Inversiones públicas; Deuda pública; Países en Desarrollo; Economía
• Rights: openAccess
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/