Pronóstico de producción de crudo en Colombia dentro de 5 años a través del modelo de curvas de declinación y simulaciones de Montecarlo

Nowadays, the main product exported in Colombia is petroleum, considering it as the engine of the country's economy. However, during the twentieth century, oil production has declined as a result to various factors, such as attacks by subversive groups on the fields of exploitation, the lack of new oil deposits or the tendency of the oil price to decline in the international markets. Consequently, this work aims to forecast, for the next 5 years, the national production of oil, through the model of decline proposed by Arps (1945) with its 3 types of curves: exponential, hyperbolic and harmonic. This model is modified in order to integrate the simulation of the random variable of declination rate. Finally, simulated results show that production in this period will decline by 40%, so the country must be economically prepared.

• Autores: Vargas Vargas, César Iván
• Tipo de recurso: Trabajo de grado de pregrado
• Fecha de publicación: 2018
• Institución: Universidad de los Andes
• Repositorio: Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/61958
• Acceso en línea: http://hdl.handle.net/1992/61958
• Palabra clave: Industria del petróleo; Petróleo; Pronóstico de los negocios
• Rights: openAccess
• License: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdf