Estimaciones de aversión al riesgo: comparación de una medida de autopercepción y una experimental bajo utilidad esperada y teoría de prospectos
ilustraciones, diagramas
- Autores:
-
Gómez Cepeda, Zulma Eugenia
- Tipo de recurso:
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2023
- Institución:
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia
- Repositorio:
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia
- Idioma:
- spa
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.unal.edu.co:unal/85397
- Palabra clave:
- 330 - Economía::332 - Economía financiera
D81- Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Aversión al riesgo
Utilidad esperada
Teoria de prospectos
Toma de decisiones bajo riesgo e incertidumbre
Risk aversion
Expected utility
Prospect Theory
Decision making under risk and uncertainty
Ganancia
Toma de decisiones
Inversión
Profits
Decision making
Investment
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional
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Estimaciones de aversión al riesgo: comparación de una medida de autopercepción y una experimental bajo utilidad esperada y teoría de prospectos |
| dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv |
Estimates of risk aversion: comparing a self-perceived and an experimental measure under expected utility and prospect theory |
| title |
Estimaciones de aversión al riesgo: comparación de una medida de autopercepción y una experimental bajo utilidad esperada y teoría de prospectos |
| spellingShingle |
Estimaciones de aversión al riesgo: comparación de una medida de autopercepción y una experimental bajo utilidad esperada y teoría de prospectos 330 - Economía::332 - Economía financiera D81- Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty Aversión al riesgo Utilidad esperada Teoria de prospectos Toma de decisiones bajo riesgo e incertidumbre Risk aversion Expected utility Prospect Theory Decision making under risk and uncertainty Ganancia Toma de decisiones Inversión Profits Decision making Investment |
| title_short |
Estimaciones de aversión al riesgo: comparación de una medida de autopercepción y una experimental bajo utilidad esperada y teoría de prospectos |
| title_full |
Estimaciones de aversión al riesgo: comparación de una medida de autopercepción y una experimental bajo utilidad esperada y teoría de prospectos |
| title_fullStr |
Estimaciones de aversión al riesgo: comparación de una medida de autopercepción y una experimental bajo utilidad esperada y teoría de prospectos |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Estimaciones de aversión al riesgo: comparación de una medida de autopercepción y una experimental bajo utilidad esperada y teoría de prospectos |
| title_sort |
Estimaciones de aversión al riesgo: comparación de una medida de autopercepción y una experimental bajo utilidad esperada y teoría de prospectos |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Gómez Cepeda, Zulma Eugenia |
| dc.contributor.advisor.spa.fl_str_mv |
García Molina, Mario |
| dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv |
Gómez Cepeda, Zulma Eugenia |
| dc.subject.ddc.spa.fl_str_mv |
330 - Economía::332 - Economía financiera |
| topic |
330 - Economía::332 - Economía financiera D81- Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty Aversión al riesgo Utilidad esperada Teoria de prospectos Toma de decisiones bajo riesgo e incertidumbre Risk aversion Expected utility Prospect Theory Decision making under risk and uncertainty Ganancia Toma de decisiones Inversión Profits Decision making Investment |
| dc.subject.jel.none.fl_str_mv |
D81- Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty |
| dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv |
Aversión al riesgo Utilidad esperada Teoria de prospectos Toma de decisiones bajo riesgo e incertidumbre |
| dc.subject.proposal.eng.fl_str_mv |
Risk aversion Expected utility Prospect Theory Decision making under risk and uncertainty |
| dc.subject.unesco.spa.fl_str_mv |
Ganancia Toma de decisiones Inversión |
| dc.subject.unesco.eng.fl_str_mv |
Profits Decision making Investment |
| description |
ilustraciones, diagramas |
| publishDate |
2023 |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-08-01 |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2024-01-22T18:34:05Z |
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2024-01-22T18:34:05Z |
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Trabajo de grado - Maestría |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
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Text |
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https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/85397 |
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Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
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Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
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https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/ |
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https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/85397 https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/ |
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Universidad Nacional de Colombia Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
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spa |
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spa |
| dc.relation.references.spa.fl_str_mv |
Arrow, K. (1965). Aspects of the theory of risk bearing. Helsinki, Yrjö Jahnsonn Foundation. Blais, A.-R., & Weber, E. (2006). A domain-specific risk-taking (DOSPERT) scale for adult populations. Judgment and Decision Making, 1(1),, 33–47 Blavatskyy, P. (2021). A Simple Non-parametric Method for Eliciting Prospect Theory’s Value Function and Measuring Loss Aversion under Risk and Ambiguity. Theory and Decision, 91(3),, 403–416. Bonsang, E., & Dohmen, T. (2015). Risk attitude and cognitive aging. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,112–126. Campos-Vazquez, R., & Cuilty, E. (2014). The Role of Emotions on Risk Aversion: A Prospect Theory Experiment. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 50,1–9. Charness, G. and Viceisza, A. (2016). Three risk-elicitation methods in the field: evidence from rural Senegal. Review of Behavioral Economics, 3, 145-171. Czerwonka, M. (2019). Cultural, cognitive and personality traits in risk-taking behaviour: evidence from Poland and the United States of America. . Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja. 32., 894-908. Ding, X., Hartog, J., & Sun, Y. (2010). Can We Measure Individual Risk Attitudes in a Survey? Discussion Paper No. 4807. Dohmen, T., Falk, A., Golsteyn, B., Huffman, D., & Sunde, U. (2017). Risk attitudes across the life course. The Economic Journal, 127(605),, F95–F116. Dohmen, T., Falk, A., Huffman, D., Sunde, U., Schupp, J., & Wagner, G. (2005). Individual Risk Attitudes: New Evidence from a Large, Representative, Experimentally-Validated Survey, No 511,. Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. Dohmen, T., Falk, A., Huffman, D., Sunde, U., Schupp, J., & Wagner, G. (2011). Individual Risk Attitudes: Measurement, Determinants, and Behavioral Consequences. Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 9, Issue 3,522–550. Giuseppe, A., Georgantzís, N., Rotondi, V., & Vigani, D. (2018). Lottery- and survey- based risk attitudes linked through a multichoice elicitation task. Theory Dec., 341-372. H., A. (1965). Aspects of the theory of risk bearing. . Helsinki, Yrjö Jahnsonn Foundation. Hardeweg, B., Menkhoff, L., and Waibel, H. (2013). Experimentally validated survey evidence on individual risk attitudes in rural Thailand. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 61, 859-888. He, P., M. Veronesi, and S. Engel (2017), “Consistency of Risk Preference Measures: An Artefactual Field Experiment from Rural China.” Journal of Development Studies Holt, C., & Laury, S. (2002). Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects. SSRN Electronic Journal. 92. Jarrow, R., & Li, S. (2021). Concavity, Stochastic Utility, and Risk Aversion. Finance and Stochastics, 25(2),, 311–330. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292. Lönnqvist, J.-E., Verkasalo, M., Walkowitz, G., and Wichardt, P. (2015). Measuring individual risk attitudes in the lab: Task or ask? An empirical comparison. Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization, 119, 254-266. McGhee, R., Ehrler, D., Buckhalt, J., & Phillips, C. (2012). The Relation between Five- Factor Personality Traits and Risk-Taking Behavior in Preadolescents. Psychology, 03(08), 558–561. Nicholson, N., Soane, E., Fenton-O'Creevy, M., & Willman, P. (2005). Personality and Domain-Specific Risk Taking. Journal of Risk Research. 8. O’Donoghue, T., & Somerville, J. (2018). Modeling Risk Aversion in Economics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(2),, 91–113. Oehler, A., & Wedlich, F. (2018). The relationship of extraversion and neuroticism with risk attitude, risk perception, and return expectations. Journal of Neuroscience,Psychology, and Economics, 11(2), 63–92. Pennings, J. M. and Smidts, A. (2000). Assessing the construct validity of risk attitude. Management Science, 46, 1337-1348. Quiggin, J. (1992). A theory of anticipated utility. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 3(4), 323-343. Rabin, M. (2000). Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem. Econometrica, 68(5),, 1281–1292. Reynaud, A. and Couture, S. (2012). Stability of risk preference measures: Results from a field experiment on French farmers. Theory and Decision, 73, 203-221. Schechter, L. (2007). Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Exercise. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 35(1), 67–76. Semenov, A. (2006). The Measure of Relative Risk Aversion in the Consumption CAPM with Power Utility. Applied Financial Economics Letters, 2(2), 111–114. Treibich., C. (2015). Are Survey Risk Aversion Measurements Adequate in a Low Income Context?. Vieider, F. M., Lefebvre, M., Bouchouicha, R., Chmura, T., Hakimov, R., Krawczyk, M., and Martinsson, P. (2015). Common components of risk and uncertainty attitudes across contexts and domains: Evidence from 30 countries. Journal of the European Economic Association, 13, 421-452. Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton University Press. Wakker, P. P. (2010). Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity. |
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ix, 40 páginas |
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Bogotá - Ciencias Económicas - Maestría en Ciencias Económicas |
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Facultad de Ciencias Económicas |
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Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2García Molina, Mario37160c988a890eee6b3987044c86e3e9600Gómez Cepeda, Zulma Eugeniae591b7079b8391443074e754dbdef6e02024-01-22T18:34:05Z2024-01-22T18:34:05Z2023-08-01https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/85397Universidad Nacional de ColombiaRepositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombiahttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/ilustraciones, diagramasCuando las personas toman decisiones bajo riesgo económico, lo hacen con base en la información que reciben, la cual es analizada por el individuo a través de procesos tantocognitivos como emocionales que le permiten llegar a la decisión, y reflejan un comportamiento mostrando si la persona es amante, neutral o aversa al riesgo. Analizamos y comparamos los resultados de dos métodos distintos para medir aversión al riesgo en el dominio de las ganancias, aplicando en primer lugar una autoevaluación de la actitud general de aversión al riesgo similar a la aplicada por Dohmen et al. (2011) y, en segundo lugar, un juego experimental de inversión con incentivos reales basado en el modelo de las 15 preguntas de Wakker (2010). Tal como se viene mostrando en la literatura reciente, no existe correlación estadísticamente significativa entre la medida de autopercepción y la medida económica de aversión al riesgo lo cual se mantiene bajo los supuestos de utilidad esperada y teoría de prospectos, sin embargo, aunque se encontró que los distintos métodos usados para la estimación económica si se encuentran significativamente correlacionados, el método de estimación a través de minimización de distancia euclidiana es el único que muestra el signo esperado en la prueba de correlación con la medida de autopercepción. (Texto tomado de la fuente).When people make decisions under economic risk, they do so based on the information they receive, which is analyzed by the individual through both cognitive and emotional processes that allow him/her to reach the decision and reflect a behavior showing whether the person is risk-loving, risk-neutral, or risk-averse. We analyze and compare the results of two different methods to measure risk aversion in the earnings domain, applying first a self-assessment of general risk aversion attitude like the one applied by Dohmen et al. (2011) and, second, an experimental investment game with real incentives based on the 15-question model of Wakker (2010). As has been shown in recent literature, there is no statistically significant correlation between the self-perception measure and the economic measure of risk aversion which holds under the assumptions of expected utility and prospect theory, however, although it was found that the different methods used for economic estimation are significantly correlated, the estimation method through Euclidean distance minimization is the only one that shows the expected sign in the correlation test with the self-perception measure.MaestríaMagíster en Ciencias Económicasix, 40 páginasapplication/pdfspaUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaBogotá - Ciencias Económicas - Maestría en Ciencias EconómicasFacultad de Ciencias EconómicasBogotá, ColombiaUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá330 - Economía::332 - Economía financieraD81- Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and UncertaintyAversión al riesgoUtilidad esperadaTeoria de prospectosToma de decisiones bajo riesgo e incertidumbreRisk aversionExpected utilityProspect TheoryDecision making under risk and uncertaintyGananciaToma de decisionesInversiónProfitsDecision makingInvestmentEstimaciones de aversión al riesgo: comparación de una medida de autopercepción y una experimental bajo utilidad esperada y teoría de prospectosEstimates of risk aversion: comparing a self-perceived and an experimental measure under expected utility and prospect theoryTrabajo de grado - Maestríainfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionTexthttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TMArrow, K. (1965). Aspects of the theory of risk bearing. Helsinki, Yrjö Jahnsonn Foundation.Blais, A.-R., & Weber, E. (2006). A domain-specific risk-taking (DOSPERT) scale for adult populations. Judgment and Decision Making, 1(1),, 33–47Blavatskyy, P. (2021). A Simple Non-parametric Method for Eliciting Prospect Theory’s Value Function and Measuring Loss Aversion under Risk and Ambiguity. Theory and Decision, 91(3),, 403–416.Bonsang, E., & Dohmen, T. (2015). Risk attitude and cognitive aging. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,112–126.Campos-Vazquez, R., & Cuilty, E. (2014). The Role of Emotions on Risk Aversion: A Prospect Theory Experiment. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 50,1–9.Charness, G. and Viceisza, A. (2016). Three risk-elicitation methods in the field: evidence from rural Senegal. Review of Behavioral Economics, 3, 145-171.Czerwonka, M. (2019). Cultural, cognitive and personality traits in risk-taking behaviour: evidence from Poland and the United States of America. . Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja. 32., 894-908.Ding, X., Hartog, J., & Sun, Y. (2010). Can We Measure Individual Risk Attitudes in a Survey? Discussion Paper No. 4807.Dohmen, T., Falk, A., Golsteyn, B., Huffman, D., & Sunde, U. (2017). Risk attitudes across the life course. The Economic Journal, 127(605),, F95–F116.Dohmen, T., Falk, A., Huffman, D., Sunde, U., Schupp, J., & Wagner, G. (2005). Individual Risk Attitudes: New Evidence from a Large, Representative, Experimentally-Validated Survey, No 511,. Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.Dohmen, T., Falk, A., Huffman, D., Sunde, U., Schupp, J., & Wagner, G. (2011). Individual Risk Attitudes: Measurement, Determinants, and Behavioral Consequences. Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 9, Issue 3,522–550.Giuseppe, A., Georgantzís, N., Rotondi, V., & Vigani, D. (2018). Lottery- and survey- based risk attitudes linked through a multichoice elicitation task. Theory Dec., 341-372.H., A. (1965). Aspects of the theory of risk bearing. . Helsinki, Yrjö Jahnsonn Foundation.Hardeweg, B., Menkhoff, L., and Waibel, H. (2013). Experimentally validated survey evidence on individual risk attitudes in rural Thailand. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 61, 859-888.He, P., M. Veronesi, and S. Engel (2017), “Consistency of Risk Preference Measures: An Artefactual Field Experiment from Rural China.” Journal of Development StudiesHolt, C., & Laury, S. (2002). Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects. SSRN Electronic Journal. 92.Jarrow, R., & Li, S. (2021). Concavity, Stochastic Utility, and Risk Aversion. Finance and Stochastics, 25(2),, 311–330.Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.Lönnqvist, J.-E., Verkasalo, M., Walkowitz, G., and Wichardt, P. (2015). Measuring individual risk attitudes in the lab: Task or ask? An empirical comparison. Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization, 119, 254-266.McGhee, R., Ehrler, D., Buckhalt, J., & Phillips, C. (2012). The Relation between Five- Factor Personality Traits and Risk-Taking Behavior in Preadolescents. Psychology, 03(08), 558–561.Nicholson, N., Soane, E., Fenton-O'Creevy, M., & Willman, P. (2005). Personality and Domain-Specific Risk Taking. Journal of Risk Research. 8.O’Donoghue, T., & Somerville, J. (2018). Modeling Risk Aversion in Economics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(2),, 91–113.Oehler, A., & Wedlich, F. (2018). The relationship of extraversion and neuroticism with risk attitude, risk perception, and return expectations. Journal of Neuroscience,Psychology, and Economics, 11(2), 63–92.Pennings, J. M. and Smidts, A. (2000). Assessing the construct validity of risk attitude. Management Science, 46, 1337-1348.Quiggin, J. (1992). A theory of anticipated utility. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 3(4), 323-343.Rabin, M. (2000). Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem. Econometrica, 68(5),, 1281–1292.Reynaud, A. and Couture, S. (2012). Stability of risk preference measures: Results from a field experiment on French farmers. Theory and Decision, 73, 203-221.Schechter, L. (2007). Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Exercise. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 35(1), 67–76.Semenov, A. (2006). The Measure of Relative Risk Aversion in the Consumption CAPM with Power Utility. Applied Financial Economics Letters, 2(2), 111–114.Treibich., C. (2015). Are Survey Risk Aversion Measurements Adequate in a Low Income Context?.Vieider, F. M., Lefebvre, M., Bouchouicha, R., Chmura, T., Hakimov, R., Krawczyk, M., and Martinsson, P. (2015). Common components of risk and uncertainty attitudes across contexts and domains: Evidence from 30 countries. Journal of the European Economic Association, 13, 421-452.Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton University Press.Wakker, P. P. (2010). Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity.EstudiantesPúblico generalLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-85879https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/85397/1/license.txteb34b1cf90b7e1103fc9dfd26be24b4aMD51ORIGINAL1053610089.2023.pdf1053610089.2023.pdfTesis de Maestría en Ciencias Económicasapplication/pdf1224298https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/85397/2/1053610089.2023.pdfc9239307f50a561b3660341e674205faMD52THUMBNAIL1053610089.2023.pdf.jpg1053610089.2023.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg5921https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/85397/3/1053610089.2023.pdf.jpgb5eae8da80ea77cb9316ae18af2540b6MD53unal/85397oai:repositorio.unal.edu.co:unal/853972024-01-22 23:03:36.879Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de 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