Dinámica de sistemas socio-ecológicos en cuencas hidrográficas de media montaña, Colombia
ilustraciones, mapas
- Autores:
-
Berrio Giraldo, Linda Ivette
- Tipo de recurso:
- Doctoral thesis
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2020
- Institución:
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia
- Repositorio:
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia
- Idioma:
- spa
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.unal.edu.co:unal/79646
- Palabra clave:
- 620 - Ingeniería y operaciones afines::627 - Ingeniería hidráulica
Ecosistemas
Cuencas hidrográficas - Colombia
Sistemas socio-ecológicos
Modelación integrada
Enfoques de modelación
Sostenibilidad
Escenarios
Interacciones en doble vía
Socio-ecological systems
Integrated modeling
Modeling approaches
Sustainability
Scenarios
Two-way interactions
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional
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| dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
Dinámica de sistemas socio-ecológicos en cuencas hidrográficas de media montaña, Colombia |
| dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv |
Dynamics of socio-ecological systems in mountain basin, Colombia |
| title |
Dinámica de sistemas socio-ecológicos en cuencas hidrográficas de media montaña, Colombia |
| spellingShingle |
Dinámica de sistemas socio-ecológicos en cuencas hidrográficas de media montaña, Colombia 620 - Ingeniería y operaciones afines::627 - Ingeniería hidráulica Ecosistemas Cuencas hidrográficas - Colombia Sistemas socio-ecológicos Modelación integrada Enfoques de modelación Sostenibilidad Escenarios Interacciones en doble vía Socio-ecological systems Integrated modeling Modeling approaches Sustainability Scenarios Two-way interactions |
| title_short |
Dinámica de sistemas socio-ecológicos en cuencas hidrográficas de media montaña, Colombia |
| title_full |
Dinámica de sistemas socio-ecológicos en cuencas hidrográficas de media montaña, Colombia |
| title_fullStr |
Dinámica de sistemas socio-ecológicos en cuencas hidrográficas de media montaña, Colombia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Dinámica de sistemas socio-ecológicos en cuencas hidrográficas de media montaña, Colombia |
| title_sort |
Dinámica de sistemas socio-ecológicos en cuencas hidrográficas de media montaña, Colombia |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Berrio Giraldo, Linda Ivette |
| dc.contributor.advisor.none.fl_str_mv |
Villegas Palacio, Clara Inés Arango Aramburo, Santiago |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Berrio Giraldo, Linda Ivette |
| dc.subject.ddc.spa.fl_str_mv |
620 - Ingeniería y operaciones afines::627 - Ingeniería hidráulica |
| topic |
620 - Ingeniería y operaciones afines::627 - Ingeniería hidráulica Ecosistemas Cuencas hidrográficas - Colombia Sistemas socio-ecológicos Modelación integrada Enfoques de modelación Sostenibilidad Escenarios Interacciones en doble vía Socio-ecological systems Integrated modeling Modeling approaches Sustainability Scenarios Two-way interactions |
| dc.subject.lemb.none.fl_str_mv |
Ecosistemas Cuencas hidrográficas - Colombia |
| dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv |
Sistemas socio-ecológicos Modelación integrada Enfoques de modelación Sostenibilidad Escenarios Interacciones en doble vía |
| dc.subject.proposal.eng.fl_str_mv |
Socio-ecological systems Integrated modeling Modeling approaches Sustainability Scenarios Two-way interactions |
| description |
ilustraciones, mapas |
| publishDate |
2020 |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-07-30 |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-06-18T14:47:59Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-06-18T14:47:59Z |
| dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv |
Trabajo de grado - Doctorado |
| dc.type.driver.spa.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06 |
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Text |
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http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TD |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06 |
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acceptedVersion |
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https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/79646 |
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Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
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Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
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https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/ |
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https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/79646 https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/ |
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Universidad Nacional de Colombia Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
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spa |
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spa |
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Lit. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.3.595 Wu, M., Ren, X., Che, Y., Yang, K., 2015. A Coupled SD and CLUE-S Model for Exploring the Impact of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study in Baoshan District, Shanghai, China. Environ. Manage. 402–419. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-015-0512-2 Yang, J., Chen, F., Xi, J., Xie, P., Li, C., 2014. A Multitarget Land Use Change Simulation Model Based on Cellular Automata and Its Application. Abstr. Appl. Anal. 2014, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/375389 Zhang, L., Nan, Z., Yu, W., Ge, Y., 2015. Modeling land use and land cover change and hydrological responses under consisent climate change scenarios in the Heihe River Basin, China. Water Resour. Manag. 29, 4701–4717. |
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Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Villegas Palacio, Clara Inés9bab9890d6e63f22b4b9ead6f09a5085600Arango Aramburo, Santiago214c2102e45a3ac8004821f24543d086600Berrio Giraldo, Linda Ivette0cfd03d5bb8cf2c410eaab3753a9ffd36002021-06-18T14:47:59Z2021-06-18T14:47:59Z2020-07-30https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/79646Universidad Nacional de ColombiaRepositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombiahttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/ilustraciones, mapasEl mundo tiene la urgencia de implementar estrategias que permitan la gestión integrada y sostenible de los ecosistemas terrestres, considerando la transformación acelerada y el deterioro de los sistemas ecológicos por la acción antropogénica, además de la variabilidad de los procesos naturales y los efectos del cambio climático. Los cambios de cobertura y uso del suelo siguen siendo uno de los motores de cambio más importantes de los sistemas socio-ecológicos (SSE) en todo el mundo. Una gestión inadecuada del suelo puede socavar la prestación futura de los servicios ecosistémicos, por lo tanto, es importante un apropiado diseño de políticas de gestión del territorio. Para lograr buenas políticas se requiere un entendimiento de los SSE a través de la comprensión de los sistemas naturales y sociales y sus interacciones. El uso de modelos de simulación proporciona una metodología para una comprensión profunda de los procesos ambientales. Los modelos además la generación de alertas tempranas, el análisis de escenarios y la evaluación de políticas sobre posibles desafíos futuros. La modelación de sistemas complejos, en particular los SSE, es motivada por una amplia gama de preguntas, y así los modelos de simulación de sistemas socio-ecológicos existentes difieren en alcance, propósito y estructura. En el área de investigación de simulación de SSE existen retos que pueden ser abordados para obtener herramientas confiables que permitan comprender el funcionamiento de los mismos, analizar cómo ha sido su trayectoria, diagnosticar el estado actual y desarrollar una evaluación exante de diferentes políticas y estrategias a ser implementadas. Uno de los retos significativos reportados por la literatura es la consideración de las interacciones en doble vía entre los sistemas sociales y naturales para su modelación, conformando ciclos de realimentación. Esta tesis desarrolla un modelo en dinámica de sistemas para comprender la dinámica de transición de cobertura y uso del suelo de la cuenca de Río Grande, ubicado en los Andes colombianos, y su incidencia en la provisión de los servicios ecosistémicos de cantidad de agua superficial y control de la erosión. Este modelo incluye las interacciones humano-naturaleza de forma integrada y las relaciones en doble vía que resultan de las interacciones entre el sistema social y natural para un caso particular. Para desarrollar el modelo, se consideraron los pasos para la modelación de sistemas complejos, los enfoques de modelación que se han usado en la literatura y los criterios que son importantes en el momento de la selección del enfoque de modelación. Este modelo incluye un indicador de sostenibilidad como contribución a la evaluación de sostenibilidad de SSE. Las pruebas de verificación y validación del modelo mostraron resultados satisfactorios y robustos que apoyan la utilidad del modelo para analizar la sostenibilidad de este SSE. El modelo permite la integración de los sistemas natural, económico y socio-cultural ya que involucra variables claves de cada uno de éstos. Se hace uso del modelo para analizar el efecto que tienen diferentes políticas ante diferentes escenarios de cambio climático y del contexto. Los escenarios analizados están estrechamente relacionados con la situación actual de la región. La validación del modelo incluyó tanto su estructura como su capacidad de replicar el comportamiento histórico para el periodo comprendido entre 1986-2015, para luego analizar escenarios hacia el 2040. En este trabajo se encontró que la sostenibilidad de la cuenca es susceptible a todos los escenarios que se evaluaron, algunos generando mayor efecto que otros. De igual forma se encontró que, una combinación de política de restricciones con cualquier tipo de política que otorgue algún incentivo de conservación permite mejorar la sostenibilidad del SSE ya que se garantizan la provisión de servicios ecosistémicos (regulación hídrica y control de la erosión), pero a su vez los ingresos económicos que se generan por los incentivos influyen positivamente en las contribuciones del capital económico para la región. Además, se evalúan las diferencias en la modelación de SSE cuando se consideran y cuando no las interacciones en doble vía. Para esto, se generaron dos modelos adicionales a partir del modelo propuesto inicialmente. En uno de los modelos, el sistema social se encuentra restringido por una salida del sistema natural y, en el otro modelo, el sistema natural está sujeto a perturbaciones del sistema social. Los resultados fueron comparados de acuerdo con diferentes variables de salidas como coberturas, erosión, disponibilidad de agua y beneficios netos de actividades económicas. Se encontraron diferencias cuando se comparan los resultados de los tres modelos. Los resultados indican que las trayectorias de las variables de salida del modelo cambian de acuerdo a la conceptualización del SSE y de la consideración de mecanismos de realimentación o las interacciones en doble vía entre el subsistema social y natural. (Tomado de la fuente)The world has the urgency to implement strategies that allow the integrated and sustainable management of terrestrial ecosystems, considering the accelerated transformation and deterioration of ecological systems by human activities, together with the variability of natural processes and the effects of climate change. Land use and land cover changes remain as the most important drivers of change in socio-ecological systems (SES) worldwide. Inadequate land management can undermine the future provision of ecosystem services; therefore, an appropriate design of land management policies is important. Achieving good policy requires an understanding of socio-ecological systems by understanding both the natural and the social systems together with their interactions. The use of simulation models provides a methodology for deepening our understanding of environmental processes, early warnings, scenario analysis and ex-ante policy evaluation of possible future challenges. The modeling of complex systems, particulary SES, is motivated by a wide range of questions, thus the existing simulation models of SES differ in scope, purpose and structure. In the research line of socio-ecological systems simulation there are challenges that must be addressed to obtain reliable tools that allow understanding of the functioning of SES, analyze the trajectories of the SES, diagnose the current state and develop an ex-ante evaluation before different policies and strategies are to be implemented. One of the significant challenges reported by the literature is the consideration of two-way interactions between social and natural systems for modeling, forming feedbacks loops. This thesis develops a model in system dynamics to understand the dynamics of land use and land cover change in a socio-ecological system located in the Colombian Andes and its impact on the provision of quantity ecosystem services of surface water and erosion control. This model includes humannature interactions and the two-way relationships that result from the interactions between the social and natural system. To develop the model, we considered the steps for modelling complex systems, the modelling approaches that have been used in the literature and the criteria that are important in selecting the modelling approach. This model includes a sustainability indicator as a contribution to the evaluation of sustainability of socio-ecological systems. The verification and validation tests of the model showed satisfactory and robust results that support the usefulness of the model to analyze the sustainability of this SES. The model allows the integration of natural, economic and socio-cultural systems as it involves key variables of each of these. The model is used to analyze the effect that different policies and different climate change scenarios have on the SES. The analyzed scenarios are closely related to the current situation in the region. The model was validated for both, in its structure and its ability to replicate historical behavior for the period spanning 1986-2015, and then analyze scenarios towards 2040. It was found that, a combination of policy restrictions with any type of policy that provides some conservation incentives allows improving the sustainability of the SES since the provision of ecosystem services (water regulation and erosion control) are guaranteed, but the economic income generated by the incentives positively influences the contributions of economic capital to the region. In addition, the thesis evaluates differences between simulation outputs when considering two-way interactions and when they are not included. For this, two additional models were generated from the model proposed above. In one of the models the social system is restricted by an output from the natural system and, in the other model, the natural system is subject to disturbances of the social system. The results were compared according to different output variables such as land cover, erosion, water availability and net benefits of economic activities. Differences were found when comparing the results of the three models. The results indicate that the trajectories of the output variables of the model change according to the conceptualization of the SES and the consideration of feedback mechanisms or two-way interactions between the natural and social subsystem. (Tomado de la fuente)DoctoradoDoctora en IngenieríaServicios Ecosistémicos y Planificación de Recursos182 páginasapplication/pdfspaUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaMedellín - Minas - Doctorado en Ingeniería - Recursos HidráulicosDepartamento de Geociencias y Medo AmbienteFacultad de MinasMedellínUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Medellín620 - Ingeniería y operaciones afines::627 - Ingeniería hidráulicaEcosistemasCuencas hidrográficas - ColombiaSistemas socio-ecológicosModelación integradaEnfoques de modelaciónSostenibilidadEscenariosInteracciones en doble víaSocio-ecological systemsIntegrated modelingModeling approachesSustainabilityScenariosTwo-way interactionsDinámica de sistemas socio-ecológicos en cuencas hidrográficas de media montaña, ColombiaDynamics of socio-ecological systems in mountain basin, ColombiaTrabajo de grado - Doctoradoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06Texthttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TDColombiaAbram, J.J., Dyke, J.G., 2018. 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