Estimación de la susceptibilidad a movimientos en masa superficiales por medio de un análisis de regresión espacial local. Aplicación para un tramo de la cuenca media del río Chicamocha

ilustraciones, diagramas, fotografías

Autores:: Velásquez Giraldo, Diego Felipe

Tipo de recurso:

Fecha de publicación:: 2024

Institución:: Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Repositorio:: Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Idioma:: spa

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network_acronym_str	UNACIONAL2
network_name_str	Universidad Nacional de Colombia
repository_id_str
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv	Estimación de la susceptibilidad a movimientos en masa superficiales por medio de un análisis de regresión espacial local. Aplicación para un tramo de la cuenca media del río Chicamocha
dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv	Estimation of shallow landslide susceptibility by means of a local spatial regression analysis. Application to a section of the middle Chicamocha River basin
title	Estimación de la susceptibilidad a movimientos en masa superficiales por medio de un análisis de regresión espacial local. Aplicación para un tramo de la cuenca media del río Chicamocha
spellingShingle	Estimación de la susceptibilidad a movimientos en masa superficiales por medio de un análisis de regresión espacial local. Aplicación para un tramo de la cuenca media del río Chicamocha 550 - Ciencias de la tierra::551 - Geología, hidrología, meteorología Susceptibilidad Movimiento en masa Geomorfología Amenazas naturales Deslizamientos Susceptibility Mass movement Geomorphology Natural hazards Landslides Corrimiento de tierra Análisis de la regresión Riesgo natural landslide regression analysis natural risk
title_short	Estimación de la susceptibilidad a movimientos en masa superficiales por medio de un análisis de regresión espacial local. Aplicación para un tramo de la cuenca media del río Chicamocha
title_full	Estimación de la susceptibilidad a movimientos en masa superficiales por medio de un análisis de regresión espacial local. Aplicación para un tramo de la cuenca media del río Chicamocha
title_fullStr	Estimación de la susceptibilidad a movimientos en masa superficiales por medio de un análisis de regresión espacial local. Aplicación para un tramo de la cuenca media del río Chicamocha
title_full_unstemmed	Estimación de la susceptibilidad a movimientos en masa superficiales por medio de un análisis de regresión espacial local. Aplicación para un tramo de la cuenca media del río Chicamocha
title_sort	Estimación de la susceptibilidad a movimientos en masa superficiales por medio de un análisis de regresión espacial local. Aplicación para un tramo de la cuenca media del río Chicamocha
dc.creator.fl_str_mv	Velásquez Giraldo, Diego Felipe
dc.contributor.advisor.spa.fl_str_mv	Moreno Murillo, Juan Manuel
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv	Velásquez Giraldo, Diego Felipe
dc.subject.ddc.spa.fl_str_mv	550 - Ciencias de la tierra::551 - Geología, hidrología, meteorología
topic	550 - Ciencias de la tierra::551 - Geología, hidrología, meteorología Susceptibilidad Movimiento en masa Geomorfología Amenazas naturales Deslizamientos Susceptibility Mass movement Geomorphology Natural hazards Landslides Corrimiento de tierra Análisis de la regresión Riesgo natural landslide regression analysis natural risk
dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv	Susceptibilidad Movimiento en masa Geomorfología Amenazas naturales Deslizamientos
dc.subject.proposal.eng.fl_str_mv	Susceptibility Mass movement Geomorphology Natural hazards Landslides
dc.subject.wikidata.spa.fl_str_mv	Corrimiento de tierra Análisis de la regresión Riesgo natural
dc.subject.wikidata.eng.fl_str_mv	landslide regression analysis natural risk
description	ilustraciones, diagramas, fotografías
publishDate	2024
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv	2024-04-18T20:00:34Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv	2024-04-18T20:00:34Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv	2024-04
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv	Trabajo de grado - Maestría
dc.type.driver.spa.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
dc.type.version.spa.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
dc.type.content.spa.fl_str_mv	Text
dc.type.redcol.spa.fl_str_mv	http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TM
status_str	acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv	https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/85950
dc.identifier.instname.spa.fl_str_mv	Universidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.identifier.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv	Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.identifier.repourl.spa.fl_str_mv	https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/
url	https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/85950 https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/
identifier_str_mv	Universidad Nacional de Colombia Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv	spa
language	spa
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spelling	Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Moreno Murillo, Juan Manuelf8e144bedad71ca1a6127096b637d976600Velásquez Giraldo, Diego Felipe8c33e854edff4be22d8a78555da7b2532024-04-18T20:00:34Z2024-04-18T20:00:34Z2024-04https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/85950Universidad Nacional de ColombiaRepositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombiahttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/ilustraciones, diagramas, fotografíasEn este trabajo de investigación se presenta la estimación de la susceptibilidad a movimientos en masa superficiales mediante un análisis de regresión espacial local, específicamente un modelo de regresión logística geográficamente ponderada (GWLR) que tiene en cuenta las relaciones no estacionarias de los factores que influyen en la ocurrencia de movimientos en masa en una zona. Se aplicó este método en un tramo de la cuenca media del río Chicamocha, ubicada en el departamento de Boyacá, que fue seleccionada debido a sus características geológicas y geomorfológicas, así como a la evidente inestabilidad observada en la región. Además, se calibró un modelo de regresión global (regresión logística convencional, LR) para determinar las ventajas y desventajas de cada método en estudios de susceptibilidad. Se consideraron variables independientes como la litología, proximidad a fallas, pendiente, curvatura, rugosidad del terreno, TWI, SPI, proximidad y densidad de drenaje, precipitación, proximidad a vías, cobertura de la tierra, NDVI y zonas con predominio de procesos erosivos. Las estimaciones revelan que el 28% del área de estudio presenta una alta y muy alta susceptibilidad a deslizamientos superficiales y un 25% a movimientos tipo flujo. Se encontraron diferencias significativas en el rendimiento entre los modelos de regresión locales y globales, de acuerdo con la mejora de los estadísticos de grado de ajuste (devianza, AIC y McFadden pseudo R2) y los valores de tasa de predicción (ROC-AUC). El análisis de regresión espacial local también revela que la contribución de las variables independientes en la ocurrencia de zonas inestables varia a lo largo de la zona de estudio. Los resultados permiten concluir que el modelo GWLR ofrece una mejora potencial en la estimación de la susceptibilidad a movimientos en masa en el contexto colombiano en comparación con los métodos convencionales de regresión global (LR). (Texto tomado de la fuente).This research presents the estimation of the susceptibility to shallow mass movements by means of a local spatial regression analysis, specifically a geographically weighted logistic regression model (GWLR) that considers the nonstationary relationships of the factors that influence the occurrence of mass movements. This method was applied in a section of the middle basin of the Chicamocha river, located in the department of Boyacá, which was selected due to its geological and geomorphological characteristics, as well as the evident instability observed in the region. In addition, a global regression model (conventional logistic regression, LR) was calibrated to determine the advantages and disadvantages of each method in susceptibility studies. Independent variables such as lithology, proximity to faults, slope, curvature, terrain roughness, TWI, SPI, drainage proximity and density, rainfall, proximity to roads, land use, NDVI and areas with mainly erosive processes were considered. Estimates reveal that 28% of the study area has high and very high susceptibility to shallow landslides and 25% to flows and avalanches (flow-type movements). Significant differences in performance were found between local and global regression models, according to improved goodness-of-fit criteria (deviance, AIC, and McFadden pseudo R2) and prediction rate values (ROC-AUC). The local spatial regression analysis also reveals that the contribution of the independent variables in the occurrence of unstable zones varies across the study area. The results allow us to conclude that the GWLR model offers a potential improvement in the estimation of susceptibility to mass movements in the colombian context compared to conventional global regression (LR) methods.MaestríaMagíster en Ciencias - GeologíaGeología ambiental y geoamenazasxxii, 216 páginasapplication/pdfspaUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaBogotá - Ciencias - Maestría en Ciencias - GeologíaFacultad de CienciasBogotá, ColombiaUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá550 - Ciencias de la tierra::551 - Geología, hidrología, meteorologíaSusceptibilidadMovimiento en masaGeomorfologíaAmenazas naturalesDeslizamientosSusceptibilityMass movementGeomorphologyNatural hazardsLandslidesCorrimiento de tierraAnálisis de la regresiónRiesgo naturallandslideregression analysisnatural riskEstimación de la susceptibilidad a movimientos en masa superficiales por medio de un análisis de regresión espacial local. 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Comparison between different approaches to modeling shallow landslide susceptibility: A case history in Oltrepo Pavese, Northern Italy. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13(3), 559–573. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-559-2013InvestigadoresPúblico generalLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-85879https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/85950/3/license.txteb34b1cf90b7e1103fc9dfd26be24b4aMD53ORIGINAL1016073493.2024.pdf1016073493.2024.pdfTesis de Maestría en Ciencias - Geologíaapplication/pdf14957788https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/85950/4/1016073493.2024.pdfc361760833470054be61ad0bd61425faMD54THUMBNAIL1016073493.2024.pdf.jpg1016073493.2024.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg4817https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/85950/5/1016073493.2024.pdf.jpgb3e27bf084ca4f8bf0482cd2e3d3a140MD55unal/85950oai:repositorio.unal.edu.co:unal/859502024-08-24 23:12:24.79Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de 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