Prediction of the occurrence of flares in the solar cycle 24 from the evolution of magnetic polarity barycenters in active regions

ilustraciones, gráficas, tablas

Autores:: Granados Hernández, Natalia

Tipo de recurso:

Fecha de publicación:: 2021

Institución:: Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Repositorio:: Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Idioma:: eng

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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv	Prediction of the occurrence of flares in the solar cycle 24 from the evolution of magnetic polarity barycenters in active regions
dc.title.translated.spa.fl_str_mv	Predicción de la ocurrencia de fulguraciones en el ciclo solar 24 a partir de la evolución de los baricentros de polaridad magnética en regiones activas
title	Prediction of the occurrence of flares in the solar cycle 24 from the evolution of magnetic polarity barycenters in active regions
spellingShingle	Prediction of the occurrence of flares in the solar cycle 24 from the evolution of magnetic polarity barycenters in active regions 520 - Astronomía y ciencias afines::523 - Cuerpos y fenómenos celestes específicos Solar activity Solar radiation Data collecting Actividad solar Radación solar Recopilación de datos Flare Prediction Sunspots Space weather Bipolar active region Fulguración Predicción Clima espacial Región activa bipolar Manchas solares
title_short	Prediction of the occurrence of flares in the solar cycle 24 from the evolution of magnetic polarity barycenters in active regions
title_full	Prediction of the occurrence of flares in the solar cycle 24 from the evolution of magnetic polarity barycenters in active regions
title_fullStr	Prediction of the occurrence of flares in the solar cycle 24 from the evolution of magnetic polarity barycenters in active regions
title_full_unstemmed	Prediction of the occurrence of flares in the solar cycle 24 from the evolution of magnetic polarity barycenters in active regions
title_sort	Prediction of the occurrence of flares in the solar cycle 24 from the evolution of magnetic polarity barycenters in active regions
dc.creator.fl_str_mv	Granados Hernández, Natalia
dc.contributor.advisor.spa.fl_str_mv	Vargas Domínguez, Santiago Bonaccini Calia, Domenico
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv	Granados Hernández, Natalia
dc.contributor.researchgroup.spa.fl_str_mv	Grupo de Astrofísica
dc.subject.ddc.spa.fl_str_mv	520 - Astronomía y ciencias afines::523 - Cuerpos y fenómenos celestes específicos
topic	520 - Astronomía y ciencias afines::523 - Cuerpos y fenómenos celestes específicos Solar activity Solar radiation Data collecting Actividad solar Radación solar Recopilación de datos Flare Prediction Sunspots Space weather Bipolar active region Fulguración Predicción Clima espacial Región activa bipolar Manchas solares
dc.subject.lemb.eng.fl_str_mv	Solar activity Solar radiation Data collecting
dc.subject.lemb.spa.fl_str_mv	Actividad solar Radación solar Recopilación de datos
dc.subject.proposal.eng.fl_str_mv	Flare Prediction Sunspots Space weather Bipolar active region
dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv	Fulguración Predicción Clima espacial Región activa bipolar Manchas solares
description	ilustraciones, gráficas, tablas
publishDate	2021
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv	2021
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv	2022-02-02T19:46:17Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv	2022-02-02T19:46:17Z
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv	Trabajo de grado - Maestría
dc.type.driver.spa.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
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dc.identifier.instname.spa.fl_str_mv	Universidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.identifier.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv	Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia
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identifier_str_mv	Universidad Nacional de Colombia Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv	eng
language	eng
dc.relation.references.spa.fl_str_mv	Benz, A. O. (2002).Plasma Astrophysics: Kinetic Processes in Solar and Stellar Coronae. Astro-physics and Space Science Library. Springer Netherlands. Benz, A. O. (2008). Flare observations.Living Reviews in Solar Physics, 5(1). Chamberlin, P., Pesnell, W. D., and Thompson, B. (2012).The Solar Dynamics Observatory.Springer-Verlag New York. Chaplin, W. J. . (2006).The Music of the Sun : The Story of Helioseismology. Oxford : Oneworld. Collins Petersen, C. (2017).Astronomy 101: from the sun and moon to wormholes and warp drive,key theories, discoveries, and facts about the universe. Adams Media, Avon, MA, USA. Cravens, T. E. (1997). Physics of Solar System Plasmas. Cambridge Atmospheric and SpaceScience Series. Cambridge University Press. Dikpati, M., de Toma, G., and Gilman, P. A. (2006). Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24using a flux-transport dynamo-based tool.Geophysical Research Letters, 33(5). Erdelyi, R., Korsos, M. B., Huang, X., Yang, Y., Pizzey, D., Wrathmall, S. A., Hughes, I., Dyer,M., Dhillon, V. S., Belucz, B., Brajsa, R., Chatterjee, P., Cheng, X., Deng, Y., Dominguez, S. V.,Joya, R., Gomory, P., Gyenge, N. G., Hanslmeier, A., Kucera, A., Kuridze, D., Li, F., Liu, Z.,Long, X., Mathioudakis, M., Matthews, S., McAteer, J. R., Pevtsov, A. A., Potzi, W., Romano,P., Shen, J., Temesvary, J., Tlatov, A. G., Triana, C., Utz, D., Veronig, A. M., Wang, Y., Yan,Y., Zaqarashvili, T., and Zuccarello, F. (2021). The solar activity monitor network - samnet.Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate. Garfinkle, D. and Garfinkle, R. (2008).Three Steps to the Universe: From the Sun to Black Holesto the Mystery of Dark Matter. University of Chicago Press. Glogowski, K., Bobra, M. G., Choudhary, N., Amezcua, A. B., and Mumford, S. J. (2019). drms: Apython package for accessing hmi and aia data.Journal of Open Source Software, 4(40):1614. Granados Hernández, N. (2019). Análisis de centroides de polaridad magnética en regionessolares activas. Master’s thesis, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá,Colombia. Granados-Hernández, N. and Vargas-Domínguez, S. (2020). Análisis de polaridades magnéticasen regiones activas para la predicción de fulguraciones solares.Rev. Acad. Colomb. Cienc. Ex.Fis. Nat., 44(173):984–995. Hanslmeier, A. (2008).The Sun and Space Weather. Astrophysics and Space Science Library.Springer, 2nd edition. HARP (1997). Harps - hmi active region patches. http://jsoc.stanford.edu/HMI/HARPS. html. Hill, F., Martens, P., Yoshimura, K., Gurman, J., Hourclé, J., Dimitoglou, G., Suárez-Solá, I., Wampler, S., Reardon, K., Davey, A., Richard, B., and Tian, K. (2009). The virtual solar observatory—a resource for international heliophysics research. Earth, Moon, and Planets, 104:315–330. Howell, E. (2018). Solar dynamics observatory: Staring at the sun. https://www.space.com/ 22081-solar-dynamics-observatory.html. Joya, R., Domínguez, S. V., Sánchez, C. T. J., and Calia, D. B. (2020). Nodo colombiano para la red internacional de monitoreo de actividad solar. Revista Innovación y Ciencia., XXVII(4). JSOC (1997). Joint science operations center. http://jsoc.stanford.edu/. Karttunen, H., Kröger, P., Oja, H., Poutanen, M., and Donner, K. J. (2017). Fundamental Astronomy. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 6 edition. Kenneth R, L. (2006). Sun, Eart and Sky. Springer, Medford, MA, USA. Knipp, D. J., Fraser, B. J., Shea, M. A., and Smart, D. F. (2018). On the little-known consequences of the 4 august 1972 ultra-fast coronal mass ejecta: Facts, commentary, and call to action. Space Weather, 16(11):1635–1643. Korsós, M. B., Baranyi, T., and Ludmány, A. (2014). PRE-FLARE DYNAMICS OF SUNSPOT GROUPS. The Astrophysical Journal, 789(2):107. Korsós, M. B., Ludmány, A., Erdélyi, R., and Baranyi, T. (2015). ON FLARE PREDICTABILITY BASED ON SUNSPOT GROUP EVOLUTION. The Astrophysical Journal, 802(2):L21. Korsós, M. B., Yang, S., and Erdelyi, R. (2019). Investigation of pre-flare dynamics using the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient method: From small to major flare classes. Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate. Moore, P. (2005). Philip’s Encyclopedia of Astronomy. Prentice Hall Inc., 1 edition. Murdin, P. (2001). Encyclopedia Of Astronomy & Astrophysics. Nature Publishing Group. Phillips, T. (2014). Near miss: The solar superstorm of july 2012. https://science.nasa. gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/. Schrijver, C.J.and Zwaan, C. (2000). Solar and Stellar Magnetic Activity. Cambridge Astrophysics. Cambridge University Press. Severino, G. (2017). The Structure and Evolution of the Sun. Undergraduate Lecture Notes in Physics. Springer International Publishing, 1 edition. van Allen, J. A. (1983). Origins of magnetospheric physics. Vaquero J.M., V. M. (2009). The Sun Recorded Through History Authors. Astrophysics and Space Science Library. Springer-Verlag New York. Volker Bothmer, I. A. D. (2007). Space Weather: Physics and Effects. Environmental Sciences. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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dc.format.extent.spa.fl_str_mv	v, 70 páginas
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dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv	Universidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.publisher.program.spa.fl_str_mv	Bogotá - Ciencias - Maestría en Ciencias - Astronomía
dc.publisher.department.spa.fl_str_mv	Observatorio Astronómico Nacional
dc.publisher.faculty.spa.fl_str_mv	Facultad de Ciencias
dc.publisher.place.spa.fl_str_mv	Bogotá, Colombia
dc.publisher.branch.spa.fl_str_mv	Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá
institution	Universidad Nacional de Colombia
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spelling	Reconocimiento 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Vargas Domínguez, Santiagobe22c53e96dc3348c6f6be91604e15deBonaccini Calia, Domenico926c2cafe273a33e1576c9f36a50b9f0600Granados Hernández, Natalia859f6a9737ab3a3bdfec4ee0e7b1b103Grupo de Astrofísica2022-02-02T19:46:17Z2022-02-02T19:46:17Z2021https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/80859Universidad Nacional de ColombiaRepositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombiahttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/ilustraciones, gráficas, tablasSolar bipolar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been studied and analyzed for decades, generating many types of models and characterizations for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the solar photosphere. Within these regions, the most characteristic explosive events are solar flares, which are big bursts of energy release, that depending on its magnitude, can represent negative effects on Earth and the technology developed by humans. For this reason, over the years, scientists have tried to predict the occurrence of these events. This work main target is the construction of a model that allows predicting the occurrence of solar flares, analyzing variables of importance in bipolar active regions such as their longitudinal magnetic field, areas of their umbra and the distance between the barycenters of the sunspots involved with opposite polarities. Variations on these parameters have demonstrated to be relevant for the occurrence of flaring events. Data processing is applied on HMI/SHARPs magnetograms and the method of the Weighted Horizontal Magnetic Gradient is used, finding a temporal relationship between the maximum of this variable and the moment of the occurrence of the flare, in a sample of 102 active regions of different GOES class.Las regiones activas bipolares solares y los procesos que ocurren en ellas han sido estudiados y analizados durante décadas, generando muchos tipos de modelos y caracterizaciones para la ocurrencia de diferentes eventos eruptivos que tienen lugar en la fotosfera solar. Dentro de estas regiones, los eventos explosivos más característicos son las fulguraciones solares, que son grandes ráfagas de liberación de energía, que dependiendo de su magnitud, pueden representar efectos negativos sobre la Tierra y la tecnología desarrollada por los humanos. Por esta razón, a lo largo de los años, los científicos han tratado de predecir la ocurrencia de estos eventos. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es la construcción de un modelo que permita predecir la ocurrencia de fulguraciones solares, analizando variables de importancia en regiones activas bipolares como su campo magnético longitudinal, áreas de su umbra y la distancia entre los baricentros de las manchas solares involucradas de polaridad opuesta. Las variaciones de estos parámetros han demostrado ser relevantes para la ocurrencia de estos eventos eruptivos. Se aplica procesamiento de datos sobre magnetogramas HMI/SHARPs y se utiliza el método del Gradiente Magnético Horizontal Ponderado, encontrando una relación temporal entre el máximo de esta variable y el momento de la ocurrencia de la fulguración, en una muestra de 102 regiones activas de diferente clase GOES. (Texto tomado de la fuente).Incluye anexosMaestríaMagíster en Ciencias - AstronomíaMetodología cuantitativa.Astrofísica solarv, 70 páginasapplication/pdfengUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaBogotá - Ciencias - Maestría en Ciencias - AstronomíaObservatorio Astronómico NacionalFacultad de CienciasBogotá, ColombiaUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá520 - Astronomía y ciencias afines::523 - Cuerpos y fenómenos celestes específicosSolar activitySolar radiationData collectingActividad solarRadación solarRecopilación de datosFlarePredictionSunspotsSpace weatherBipolar active regionFulguraciónPredicciónClima espacialRegión activa bipolarManchas solaresPrediction of the occurrence of flares in the solar cycle 24 from the evolution of magnetic polarity barycenters in active regionsPredicción de la ocurrencia de fulguraciones en el ciclo solar 24 a partir de la evolución de los baricentros de polaridad magnética en regiones activasTrabajo de grado - Maestríainfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionTexthttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TMBenz, A. O. (2002).Plasma Astrophysics: Kinetic Processes in Solar and Stellar Coronae. Astro-physics and Space Science Library. Springer Netherlands.Benz, A. O. (2008). Flare observations.Living Reviews in Solar Physics, 5(1).Chamberlin, P., Pesnell, W. D., and Thompson, B. (2012).The Solar Dynamics Observatory.Springer-Verlag New York.Chaplin, W. J. . (2006).The Music of the Sun : The Story of Helioseismology. Oxford : Oneworld.Collins Petersen, C. (2017).Astronomy 101: from the sun and moon to wormholes and warp drive,key theories, discoveries, and facts about the universe. Adams Media, Avon, MA, USA.Cravens, T. E. (1997). Physics of Solar System Plasmas. Cambridge Atmospheric and SpaceScience Series. Cambridge University Press.Dikpati, M., de Toma, G., and Gilman, P. A. (2006). Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24using a flux-transport dynamo-based tool.Geophysical Research Letters, 33(5).Erdelyi, R., Korsos, M. B., Huang, X., Yang, Y., Pizzey, D., Wrathmall, S. A., Hughes, I., Dyer,M., Dhillon, V. S., Belucz, B., Brajsa, R., Chatterjee, P., Cheng, X., Deng, Y., Dominguez, S. V.,Joya, R., Gomory, P., Gyenge, N. G., Hanslmeier, A., Kucera, A., Kuridze, D., Li, F., Liu, Z.,Long, X., Mathioudakis, M., Matthews, S., McAteer, J. R., Pevtsov, A. A., Potzi, W., Romano,P., Shen, J., Temesvary, J., Tlatov, A. G., Triana, C., Utz, D., Veronig, A. M., Wang, Y., Yan,Y., Zaqarashvili, T., and Zuccarello, F. (2021). The solar activity monitor network - samnet.Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate.Garfinkle, D. and Garfinkle, R. (2008).Three Steps to the Universe: From the Sun to Black Holesto the Mystery of Dark Matter. University of Chicago Press.Glogowski, K., Bobra, M. G., Choudhary, N., Amezcua, A. B., and Mumford, S. J. (2019). drms: Apython package for accessing hmi and aia data.Journal of Open Source Software, 4(40):1614.Granados Hernández, N. (2019). Análisis de centroides de polaridad magnética en regionessolares activas. Master’s thesis, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá,Colombia.Granados-Hernández, N. and Vargas-Domínguez, S. (2020). Análisis de polaridades magnéticasen regiones activas para la predicción de fulguraciones solares.Rev. Acad. Colomb. Cienc. Ex.Fis. Nat., 44(173):984–995.Hanslmeier, A. (2008).The Sun and Space Weather. Astrophysics and Space Science Library.Springer, 2nd edition.HARP (1997). Harps - hmi active region patches. http://jsoc.stanford.edu/HMI/HARPS. html.Hill, F., Martens, P., Yoshimura, K., Gurman, J., Hourclé, J., Dimitoglou, G., Suárez-Solá, I., Wampler, S., Reardon, K., Davey, A., Richard, B., and Tian, K. (2009). The virtual solar observatory—a resource for international heliophysics research. Earth, Moon, and Planets, 104:315–330.Howell, E. (2018). Solar dynamics observatory: Staring at the sun. https://www.space.com/ 22081-solar-dynamics-observatory.html.Joya, R., Domínguez, S. V., Sánchez, C. T. J., and Calia, D. B. (2020). Nodo colombiano para la red internacional de monitoreo de actividad solar. Revista Innovación y Ciencia., XXVII(4).JSOC (1997). Joint science operations center. http://jsoc.stanford.edu/.Karttunen, H., Kröger, P., Oja, H., Poutanen, M., and Donner, K. J. (2017). Fundamental Astronomy. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 6 edition.Kenneth R, L. (2006). Sun, Eart and Sky. Springer, Medford, MA, USA.Knipp, D. J., Fraser, B. J., Shea, M. A., and Smart, D. F. (2018). On the little-known consequences of the 4 august 1972 ultra-fast coronal mass ejecta: Facts, commentary, and call to action. Space Weather, 16(11):1635–1643.Korsós, M. B., Baranyi, T., and Ludmány, A. (2014). PRE-FLARE DYNAMICS OF SUNSPOT GROUPS. The Astrophysical Journal, 789(2):107.Korsós, M. B., Ludmány, A., Erdélyi, R., and Baranyi, T. (2015). ON FLARE PREDICTABILITY BASED ON SUNSPOT GROUP EVOLUTION. The Astrophysical Journal, 802(2):L21.Korsós, M. B., Yang, S., and Erdelyi, R. (2019). Investigation of pre-flare dynamics using the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient method: From small to major flare classes. Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate.Moore, P. (2005). Philip’s Encyclopedia of Astronomy. Prentice Hall Inc., 1 edition.Murdin, P. (2001). Encyclopedia Of Astronomy & Astrophysics. Nature Publishing Group.Phillips, T. (2014). Near miss: The solar superstorm of july 2012. https://science.nasa. gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/.Schrijver, C.J.and Zwaan, C. (2000). Solar and Stellar Magnetic Activity. Cambridge Astrophysics. Cambridge University Press.Severino, G. (2017). The Structure and Evolution of the Sun. Undergraduate Lecture Notes in Physics. Springer International Publishing, 1 edition.van Allen, J. A. (1983). Origins of magnetospheric physics.Vaquero J.M., V. M. (2009). The Sun Recorded Through History Authors. Astrophysics and Space Science Library. Springer-Verlag New York.Volker Bothmer, I. A. D. (2007). Space Weather: Physics and Effects. Environmental Sciences. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.EstudiantesInvestigadoresMaestrosPersonal de apoyo escolarORIGINAL1014227568.2021.pdf1014227568.2021.pdfTesis de Maestría en Ciencias - Astronomíaapplication/pdf8619280https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/80859/5/1014227568.2021.pdf494f45246909289f6e003d02bc006f80MD55LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84074https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/80859/6/license.txt8153f7789df02f0a4c9e079953658ab2MD56THUMBNAIL1014227568.2021.pdf.jpg1014227568.2021.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg4013https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/80859/7/1014227568.2021.pdf.jpg2a35ec8df44411ba515b58a97f54aa55MD57unal/80859oai:repositorio.unal.edu.co:unal/808592023-07-31 23:04:34.744Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombiarepositorio_nal@unal.edu.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

Prediction of the occurrence of flares in the solar cycle 24 from the evolution of magnetic polarity barycenters in active regions

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