Alteraciones en los flujos de humedad asociadas al cambio climático en el complejo orográfico Magdalena - Cauca, y sus efectos en la precipitación
Ilustraciones, diagramas, mapas
- Autores:
-
Bonilla Rodríguez, Mónica Andrea
- Tipo de recurso:
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2023
- Institución:
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia
- Repositorio:
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia
- Idioma:
- spa
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.unal.edu.co:unal/85309
- Palabra clave:
- 550 - Ciencias de la tierra
Flujos de humedad atmosférica
Balance hídrico
Orografía
Precipitación
Cambio climático
CMIP6
ERA5
Moisture flux convergence
Water balance
Terrain
Rainfall
Climate Change
Balance hídrico
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional
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UNACIONAL2 |
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Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
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| dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
Alteraciones en los flujos de humedad asociadas al cambio climático en el complejo orográfico Magdalena - Cauca, y sus efectos en la precipitación |
| dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv |
Moisture flux alterations associated with Climate Change in the Magdalena – Cauca orographic complex and its effects on rainfall |
| title |
Alteraciones en los flujos de humedad asociadas al cambio climático en el complejo orográfico Magdalena - Cauca, y sus efectos en la precipitación |
| spellingShingle |
Alteraciones en los flujos de humedad asociadas al cambio climático en el complejo orográfico Magdalena - Cauca, y sus efectos en la precipitación 550 - Ciencias de la tierra Flujos de humedad atmosférica Balance hídrico Orografía Precipitación Cambio climático CMIP6 ERA5 Moisture flux convergence Water balance Terrain Rainfall Climate Change Balance hídrico |
| title_short |
Alteraciones en los flujos de humedad asociadas al cambio climático en el complejo orográfico Magdalena - Cauca, y sus efectos en la precipitación |
| title_full |
Alteraciones en los flujos de humedad asociadas al cambio climático en el complejo orográfico Magdalena - Cauca, y sus efectos en la precipitación |
| title_fullStr |
Alteraciones en los flujos de humedad asociadas al cambio climático en el complejo orográfico Magdalena - Cauca, y sus efectos en la precipitación |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Alteraciones en los flujos de humedad asociadas al cambio climático en el complejo orográfico Magdalena - Cauca, y sus efectos en la precipitación |
| title_sort |
Alteraciones en los flujos de humedad asociadas al cambio climático en el complejo orográfico Magdalena - Cauca, y sus efectos en la precipitación |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Bonilla Rodríguez, Mónica Andrea |
| dc.contributor.advisor.none.fl_str_mv |
Carvajal Serna, Luis Fernando Vélez Upegui, Jaime Ignacio |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Bonilla Rodríguez, Mónica Andrea |
| dc.contributor.researchgroup.spa.fl_str_mv |
Posgrado en Aprovechamiento de Recursos Hidráulicos |
| dc.contributor.orcid.spa.fl_str_mv |
0000-0002-7220-6521 |
| dc.subject.ddc.spa.fl_str_mv |
550 - Ciencias de la tierra |
| topic |
550 - Ciencias de la tierra Flujos de humedad atmosférica Balance hídrico Orografía Precipitación Cambio climático CMIP6 ERA5 Moisture flux convergence Water balance Terrain Rainfall Climate Change Balance hídrico |
| dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv |
Flujos de humedad atmosférica Balance hídrico Orografía Precipitación Cambio climático CMIP6 ERA5 |
| dc.subject.proposal.eng.fl_str_mv |
Moisture flux convergence Water balance Terrain Rainfall Climate Change |
| dc.subject.wikidata.none.fl_str_mv |
Balance hídrico |
| description |
Ilustraciones, diagramas, mapas |
| publishDate |
2023 |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-09-27 |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2024-01-15T21:22:28Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2024-01-15T21:22:28Z |
| dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv |
Trabajo de grado - Maestría |
| dc.type.driver.spa.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| dc.type.version.spa.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion |
| dc.type.content.spa.fl_str_mv |
Text |
| dc.type.redcol.spa.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TM |
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acceptedVersion |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/85309 |
| dc.identifier.instname.spa.fl_str_mv |
Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
| dc.identifier.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv |
Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
| dc.identifier.repourl.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/ |
| url |
https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/85309 https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/ |
| identifier_str_mv |
Universidad Nacional de Colombia Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
| dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv |
spa |
| language |
spa |
| dc.relation.references.spa.fl_str_mv |
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Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Carvajal Serna, Luis Fernandoa9be69f5613f5e45dd1ad7925cd8fb94600Vélez Upegui, Jaime Ignacio1701acf8f87b39312eb4a6394d7cfe7a600Bonilla Rodríguez, Mónica Andrea0c75040881e38710312536b7ce85e095Posgrado en Aprovechamiento de Recursos Hidráulicos0000-0002-7220-65212024-01-15T21:22:28Z2024-01-15T21:22:28Z2023-09-27https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/85309Universidad Nacional de ColombiaRepositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombiahttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/Ilustraciones, diagramas, mapasLa complejidad orográfica de Colombia condiciona la circulación atmosférica que transporta humedad al interior del país. Dado que la convergencia de flujos de humedad y su interacción con la topografía influyen en las variables del ciclo hidrológico, resulta relevante comprender su comportamiento histórico y sus tendencias a futuro en un contexto de cambio climático. Utilizando los datos del reanálisis ERA5, se estima la convergencia de flujos de humedad de las cuencas del río Magdalena (MAG) y Cauca (CAU), delimitadas aguas arriba de su confluencia, donde prevalece la orografía de las cordilleras. Teniendo en cuenta la variabilidad del relieve y la forma de las cuencas a la resolución delimitada, se propone una metodología que discretiza el análisis por columna atmosférica de cada pixel, considerando su respectiva elevación del terreno. Los resultados se contrastan con la información de los caudales de salida de las cuencas, mediante la ecuación de balance hídrico de largo plazo en la columna atmósfera - suelo. Se analiza la representatividad de cuatro modelos del reciente CMIP6 en el escenario más extremo de cambio climático, a partir de interpolación espacial para una resolución equivalente con los datos de ERA5, estimando las correlaciones entre los datos históricos y sus diferencias con las proyecciones al escenario 2050 a 2100. Los resultados evidenciaron que la barrera orográfica ejerce disminución en el influjo de humedad atmosférica en los niveles superficiales (> 700 hPa), y asociado a esta interacción se presenta mayor precipitación media en la ladera occidental de las cuencas. Se observó que la convergencia de flujos de humedad está condicionada por una correcta representación del terreno en zonas de alta variabilidad para obtener resultados coherentes con el balance hídrico de largo plazo. Para los datos históricos, los modelos del CMIP6 utilizados presentaron buenas correlaciones de flujo de humedad meridional en los niveles medios y superficiales de la atmósfera, a diferencia de los flujos zonales, pero su baja resolución espacial implicó sobrestimaciones de influjo neto al aplicar ajustes lineales. El campo tridimensional de velocidad de los modelos del CMIP6 reflejó un comportamiento similar entre históricos y proyecciones, con pequeños cambios porcentuales en los promedios de la columna atmosférica, esto motivó a un planteamiento de conservación de la circulación atmosférica en el futuro, y condujo a explorar un empalme con los datos del campo de velocidad de ERA5. Bajo las hipótesis consideradas, se encontraron aumentos en la convergencia de humedad futura en tres de los cuatro modelos. En el caso de la precipitación, los modelos más aproximados a los datos históricos de CHIRPS, presentaron un aumento de casi el 40% para MAG y menos del 6% para CAU en el escenario futuro. Pese a las limitaciones, el modelo GFDL-ESM4 mostró el mejor desempeño para representar la convergencia de humedad y la precipitación en las cuencas, contrario al modelo FGOALS-g3 que tuvo el desempeño más deficiente. (Texto tomado de la fuente)Colombian orographic complex constrains the atmospheric circulation that carries moisture to the inland. The interaction between moisture flux convergence and topography influences the water cycle variables such as rainfall, runoff, and evaporation, according to that it turns out pertinent to understand its historical behavior and its tendency for the future in a climate change context. Moisture flux convergence in Magdalena Basin (MAG) and Cauca Basin (CAU) is estimated using ERA5 data in the portion of the basins that are shaped by the mountain ranges. Considering topography and basin shape, the methodology proposes to analyze the atmosphere column as a discretization of every pixel column with its specific altitude. The results are compared with runoff data through the atmospheric and land water balance equations. The performance of four CMIP6 models is analyzed in the most extreme scenario of climate change by spatial interpolation to the ERA5 resolution, the correlation between models and reanalysis data for the historical period is calculated, and the gaps with 2050 to 2100 data. The results suggested that the topographic wall wields a decrease in atmospheric moisture inflow at lower levels (> 700 hPa). Related to this, rainfall has shown greater median values in the western hillside within basins. It was noted that a correct terrain representation conditions moisture flux convergence for high variability zones on the way to get consistent results for water balance. For historical data, CMIP6 models have shown good correlations for meridional flux in the middle and bottom atmosphere layers, in contrast to zonal flux. Also, their low resolution overestimated the inflow through linear adjustment. The 3D velocity field by CMIP6 models has shown a similar behavior between past and future, with minor changes in the median of the atmospheric column. For this reason, an approach to atmospheric circulation maintenance in the future is posed, so it led to exploring a joining with ERA5 velocity data. Under the assumptions, increments were found in the future moisture flux convergence according to three models. For rainfall, the accurate models indicate an increase of almost 40% in MAG and less than 6% in CAU for the future. Despite limitations, GFDL-ESM4 has shown the best performance in moisture flux convergence and rainfall, unlike FGOALS-g3 had a weak performance.MaestríaMagíster en Ingeniería - Recursos HidráulicosHidrometeorologíaÁrea Curricular de Medio Ambiente121 páginasapplication/pdfspaUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaMedellín - Minas - Maestría en Ingeniería - Recursos HidráulicosFacultad de MinasMedellín, ColombiaUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Medellín550 - Ciencias de la tierraFlujos de humedad atmosféricaBalance hídricoOrografíaPrecipitaciónCambio climáticoCMIP6ERA5Moisture flux convergenceWater balanceTerrainRainfallClimate ChangeBalance hídricoAlteraciones en los flujos de humedad asociadas al cambio climático en el complejo orográfico Magdalena - Cauca, y sus efectos en la precipitaciónMoisture flux alterations associated with Climate Change in the Magdalena – Cauca orographic complex and its effects on rainfallTrabajo de grado - Maestríainfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionTexthttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TMÁlvarez-Villa, O. 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Monthly Weather Review, 143(1):298–316.EstudiantesInvestigadoresMaestrosPúblico generalResponsables políticosLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-85879https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/85309/3/license.txteb34b1cf90b7e1103fc9dfd26be24b4aMD53ORIGINAL1039459675.2023.pdf1039459675.2023.pdfTesis de Mestría en Ingeniería - Recursos Hidráulicosapplication/pdf38190208https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/85309/4/1039459675.2023.pdf1f5f21e672d3cd71adff2557c348e3bbMD54THUMBNAIL1039459675.2023.pdf.jpg1039459675.2023.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg5016https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/85309/5/1039459675.2023.pdf.jpg29ca45231bdb7abd4f4c0169487e56ffMD55unal/85309oai:repositorio.unal.edu.co:unal/853092024-08-21 23:12:58.442Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de 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