Efectos de la comunicación en el desacuerdo de expectativas: evidencia empírica para Colombia
ilustraciones, diagramas
- Autores:
-
Anzoategui Zapata, Juan Camilo
- Tipo de recurso:
- Doctoral thesis
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2022
- Institución:
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia
- Repositorio:
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia
- Idioma:
- spa
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.unal.edu.co:unal/82863
- Palabra clave:
- 330 - Economía::339 - Macroeconomía y temas relacionados
330 - Economía::332 - Economía financiera
330 - Economía::336 - Finanzas públicas
Content analysis (communication)
Análisis de contenido (comunicación)
desacuerdos
comunicación
expectativas
política monetaria
política fiscal
expectativas fiscales
consumidores
disagreements
communication
expectations
monetary policy
fiscal policy
fiscal expectations
consumers
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- Reconocimiento 4.0 Internacional
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| dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
Efectos de la comunicación en el desacuerdo de expectativas: evidencia empírica para Colombia |
| dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv |
Communication effects on the disagreement of expectations: empirical evidence for Colombia |
| title |
Efectos de la comunicación en el desacuerdo de expectativas: evidencia empírica para Colombia |
| spellingShingle |
Efectos de la comunicación en el desacuerdo de expectativas: evidencia empírica para Colombia 330 - Economía::339 - Macroeconomía y temas relacionados 330 - Economía::332 - Economía financiera 330 - Economía::336 - Finanzas públicas Content analysis (communication) Análisis de contenido (comunicación) desacuerdos comunicación expectativas política monetaria política fiscal expectativas fiscales consumidores disagreements communication expectations monetary policy fiscal policy fiscal expectations consumers |
| title_short |
Efectos de la comunicación en el desacuerdo de expectativas: evidencia empírica para Colombia |
| title_full |
Efectos de la comunicación en el desacuerdo de expectativas: evidencia empírica para Colombia |
| title_fullStr |
Efectos de la comunicación en el desacuerdo de expectativas: evidencia empírica para Colombia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Efectos de la comunicación en el desacuerdo de expectativas: evidencia empírica para Colombia |
| title_sort |
Efectos de la comunicación en el desacuerdo de expectativas: evidencia empírica para Colombia |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Anzoategui Zapata, Juan Camilo |
| dc.contributor.advisor.none.fl_str_mv |
Junca Rodríguez, Gustavo Adolfo Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Anzoategui Zapata, Juan Camilo |
| dc.contributor.orcid.spa.fl_str_mv |
Anzoategui Zapata, Juan Camilo [0000-0001-6680-275X] |
| dc.contributor.cvlac.spa.fl_str_mv |
Anzoategui Zapata, Juan Camilo [https://scienti.minciencias.gov.co/cvlac/EnRecursoHumano/inicio.do] |
| dc.contributor.researchgate.spa.fl_str_mv |
Anzoategui Zapata, Juan Camilo [https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Juan-Camilo-Anzoategui-Zapata] |
| dc.contributor.googlescholar.spa.fl_str_mv |
Anzoategui Zapata, Juan Camilo [https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=cZlNjVEAAAAJ&hl=es] |
| dc.subject.ddc.spa.fl_str_mv |
330 - Economía::339 - Macroeconomía y temas relacionados 330 - Economía::332 - Economía financiera 330 - Economía::336 - Finanzas públicas |
| topic |
330 - Economía::339 - Macroeconomía y temas relacionados 330 - Economía::332 - Economía financiera 330 - Economía::336 - Finanzas públicas Content analysis (communication) Análisis de contenido (comunicación) desacuerdos comunicación expectativas política monetaria política fiscal expectativas fiscales consumidores disagreements communication expectations monetary policy fiscal policy fiscal expectations consumers |
| dc.subject.lemb.eng.fl_str_mv |
Content analysis (communication) |
| dc.subject.lemb.spa.fl_str_mv |
Análisis de contenido (comunicación) |
| dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv |
desacuerdos comunicación expectativas política monetaria política fiscal expectativas fiscales consumidores |
| dc.subject.proposal.eng.fl_str_mv |
disagreements communication expectations monetary policy fiscal policy fiscal expectations consumers |
| description |
ilustraciones, diagramas |
| publishDate |
2022 |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-12-13T21:54:54Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-12-13T21:54:54Z |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-12-15 |
| dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv |
Trabajo de grado - Doctorado |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06 |
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Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
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Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
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Universidad Nacional de Colombia Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
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spa |
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(2019). “Do fiscal communication and clarity of fiscal announcements affect public debt uncertainty? Evidence from Brazil.” Journal of Economics and Business, 103(C), 38– 60. Montes, G. C., Oliveira, L. V., Curi, A., Nicolay, R. T. F. (2016). “Effects of transparency, monetary policy signalling and clarity of central bank communication on disagreement about inflation expectations.” Applied Economics, 48(7), 590–607. Montes, G. C., Curi, A. (2017). “Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium.” Journal of Economics and Business, 93(C), 46–61. Montes, G. C., Acar, T. (2018). “Fiscal credibility and disagreement in expectationsabout inflation: Evidence for Brazil.” Economics Bulletin, 38(2), 826–843. Montes, G. C., Luna, P. H. (2018). “Discretionary fiscal policy and disagreement inexpectations about fiscal variables: Empirical evidence from Brazil.” Economic Modelling, 73(June), 100–116. Mishkin, F. S., Savastano, M. A. (2001). “Monetary policy strategies for Latin America.” Journal of Development Economics, 66(2), 415–444. Narita, F., & Yin, R. (2018). In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends’ Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries. IMF Working Papers, No.18/286. 51p. Patton, A. J., Timmermann, A. (2010). “Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(7), 803–820. Pesaran, H., Shin, Y. (1998). “Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models.” Economics Letters, 58(1), 17–29. Ramos-Barroso, C. Galvis-Ciro, J.C. (2022). “Efectos de la credibilidad fiscal sobre las expectativas de inversión en Colombia: evidencia empírica para el período 2005-2019.” Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, 92, 273-315. Ricco, G., Callegari, G., Cimadomo, J. 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Woodford, Michael. 2005. “Central-Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness” In: The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future, 399-474. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Kansas. Wooldridge, J. M. 2003. “Applications of Generalized Method of Moments Estimation.” Journal of Economics Perspectives, 15(4), 87–100. Zapata, J. C. A., & Ciro, J. C. G. (2022). “The Communication Effects on Inflation Forecast Errors: Empirical Evidence from Colombia.” Panoeconomicus, 69(3), 427–445. Zumpano, L., Johnson, K., & Anderson, R. (2003). “Internet use and real estate brokerage market intermediation.” Journal of Housing Economics, 12 (2), 134–150. |
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128 páginas |
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Facultad de Ciencias Económicas |
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Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá |
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Reconocimiento 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Junca Rodríguez, Gustavo Adolfo0b04dee75b3408abe66411dc238df5baGalvis Ciro, Juan Camilo305af09287eda928b68eb7b3e977f2a4Anzoategui Zapata, Juan Camilo7f61e945f7e3c49545359adf72f95ee1Anzoategui Zapata, Juan Camilo [0000-0001-6680-275X]Anzoategui Zapata, Juan Camilo [https://scienti.minciencias.gov.co/cvlac/EnRecursoHumano/inicio.do]Anzoategui Zapata, Juan Camilo [https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Juan-Camilo-Anzoategui-Zapata]Anzoategui Zapata, Juan Camilo [https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=cZlNjVEAAAAJ&hl=es]2022-12-13T21:54:54Z2022-12-13T21:54:54Z2022-12-15https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/82863Universidad Nacional de ColombiaRepositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de Colombiahttps://repositorio.unal.edu.co/ilustraciones, diagramasEsta tesis busca identificar los efectos de la comunicación de la política económica sobre las expectativas macroeconómicas. En particular, busca identificar los efectos de la comunicación de política monetaria y fiscal sobre los desacuerdos en las expectativas de inflación del consumidor, las expectativas del déficit fiscal del mercado financiero y las expectativas de la tasa de interés de política monetaria. Para ello son construidos indicadores de desacuerdos en las expectativas, indicadores de comunicación monetaria y fiscal, así como también indicadores de credibilidad y reputación de política monetaria y fiscal. La metodología empleada consiste en evaluar los efectos de la comunicación a través de estimaciones OLS-HAC, GMM-HAC, GMM-WINDMEIJER y VAR (impulso-respuesta y descomposición de varianza). Los resultados econométricos de la investigación indican que la comunicación monetaria y fiscal ejerce efectos importantes en la formación de expectativas macroeconómicas. Por lo tanto, la principal recomendación de política económica apunta a que las instituciones monetaria y fiscal deben realizar mayores para que la comunicación se convierte en una herramienta importante de política económica que permita la conducción de las expectativas macroeconómicas y como resultado facilite la conquista de los metas perseguidas por las autoridades económicas. (Texto tomado de la fuente)This thesis seeks to identify the effects of economic policy communication on macroeconomic expectations. In particular, it seeks to identify the effects of monetary and fiscal policy communication on disagreements in consumer inflation expectations, financial market fiscal deficit expectations, and monetary policy interest rate expectations. For this, indicators of disagreements in expectations, indicators of monetary and fiscal communication, as well as indicators of credibility and reputation of monetary and fiscal policy are constructed. The methodology used consists of evaluating the effects of communication through OLS-HAC, GMM-HAC, GMM-WINDMEIJER and VAR (impulse-response and variance decomposition) estimates. The econometric results of the research indicate that monetary and fiscal communication exerts important effects on the formation of macroeconomic expectations. Therefore, the main economic policy recommendation is that the monetary and fiscal institutions must do more so that communication becomes an important economic policy tool that allows the management of macroeconomic expectations and, as a result, facilitates the conquest of goals pursued by the economic authorities.DoctoradoDoctor en Ciencias Económicas128 páginasapplication/pdfspaUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaBogotá - Ciencias Económicas - Doctorado en Ciencias EconómicasFacultad de Ciencias EconómicasBogotá, ColombiaUniversidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá330 - Economía::339 - Macroeconomía y temas relacionados330 - Economía::332 - Economía financiera330 - Economía::336 - Finanzas públicasContent analysis (communication)Análisis de contenido (comunicación)desacuerdoscomunicaciónexpectativaspolítica monetariapolítica fiscalexpectativas fiscalesconsumidoresdisagreementscommunicationexpectationsmonetary policyfiscal policyfiscal expectationsconsumersEfectos de la comunicación en el desacuerdo de expectativas: evidencia empírica para ColombiaCommunication effects on the disagreement of expectations: empirical evidence for ColombiaTrabajo de grado - Doctoradoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06Texthttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TDColombiaAfonso, A., Jalles, J., Kazemi, M. 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(2005). “A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficienttwo-step GMM estimators.” Journal of Econometrics, 126(1), 25–51.Woodford, Michael. 2005. “Central-Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness” In: The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future, 399-474. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Kansas.Wooldridge, J. M. 2003. “Applications of Generalized Method of Moments Estimation.” Journal of Economics Perspectives, 15(4), 87–100.Zapata, J. C. A., & Ciro, J. C. G. (2022). “The Communication Effects on Inflation Forecast Errors: Empirical Evidence from Colombia.” Panoeconomicus, 69(3), 427–445.Zumpano, L., Johnson, K., & Anderson, R. (2003). “Internet use and real estate brokerage market intermediation.” Journal of Housing Economics, 12 (2), 134–150.EstudiantesInvestigadoresMaestrosMedios de comunicaciónResponsables políticosLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-85879https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/82863/1/license.txteb34b1cf90b7e1103fc9dfd26be24b4aMD51ORIGINAL71367352.2022.pdf71367352.2022.pdfTesis de Doctorado en Ciencias Económicasapplication/pdf1987206https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/82863/2/71367352.2022.pdf197d60325be8138ce98c79ef8975cc0dMD52THUMBNAIL71367352.2022.pdf.jpg71367352.2022.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg4487https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/unal/82863/3/71367352.2022.pdf.jpga622513b8e7ed8ef0605fac73de6642cMD53unal/82863oai:repositorio.unal.edu.co:unal/828632023-08-12 23:03:47.018Repositorio Institucional Universidad Nacional de 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