Variability effect of the renewable generation on the electricity markets performance

Modeling and simulation of electricity markets have increasingly involved the use of a System Dynamics (SD) approach. Accordingly, the resulting dynamic hypothesis and the stock-flow structures are represented and simulated using softwares such as: Stella, Powersim, iThink or Vensim. However, the SD models can be exploited even more, the investigation of signals in the time domain or sensitivity analysis are just a small part of the study, SD models are mathematical objects, and as such, they deserve an analytical or numerical study using tools provided by the Dynamic Systems (DS) methodology. Therefore, this thesis not only study the dynamic hypothesis or the stock-flow structure of an electricity market model in the classical form, but also use its inner mathematical object to provide a deeper insight into the system. Using MATLAB/Simulink the system is assessed from different approaches not yet reported in the literature. This combining methodology of SD and DS approaches can open the door to a new and alternative method of analysis for electricity market models and even for any SD model. In fact, this thesis demonstrates that with this combining methodology it is able to develop more detailed analysis strategies and novel insights from the SD models, which can be easily exploited by policy makers to suggest improvements in regulation or market structures. Indeed, taking into account that the energy market is evolving, a series of macro and micro structural changes are impacting demand, and the world is experiencing a shift to renewable energy, we consider as a case study a simpli�ed version of the Colombian electricity market to also provide a detailed description of its dynamics under a broad range of growth rate of demand (GRD) and different variable and permanent (VP) generation capacity scenarios. Our study inspired by the bifurcation and control theory of DS mainly show that Colombia really needs new capacity before 2020 in order to avoid very likely rationing events expected to occur in the short and long term. In fact, our proposed control algorithms reveal that proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers can be successfully applied to any SD model as well as avoid or control the undesired behaviors caused by the variability associated with renewable generation; in particular, it was shown that an adequate amount of capacity investments can signi�cantly improve the electricity market performance of our case study.

• Autores: Morcillo Bastidas, José Daniel
• Tipo de recurso: Doctoral thesis
• Fecha de publicación: 2017
• Institución: Universidad Nacional de Colombia
• Repositorio: Universidad Nacional de Colombia
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.unal.edu.co:unal/62258
• Acceso en línea: https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/62258; http://bdigital.unal.edu.co/61261/
• Palabra clave: 62 Ingeniería y operaciones afines / Engineering; System Dynamics; Dynamical Systems; Control Theory; Electricity Markets; Non-linear Dynamics; Modeling and simulation
• Rights: openAccess
• License: Atribución-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional