Una evaluación de los potenciales efectos del cambio climático sobre la Distribución Nymphargus Ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)

El cambio climático antropogénico amenaza la biodiversidad global al ser el clima uno de los factores promotores de la reorganización de la misma. Los anfibios, especialmente los anuros, han mostrado alteraciones en sus patrones de diversidad y distribución debido a esta problemática. Este estudio e...

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Autores:: Sandoval Barbosa, Francy Johanna

Tipo de recurso:: Trabajo de grado de pregrado

Fecha de publicación:: 2024

Institución:: Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas

Repositorio:: RIUD: repositorio U. Distrital

Idioma:: spa

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network_acronym_str	UDISTRITA2
network_name_str	RIUD: repositorio U. Distrital
repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv	Una evaluación de los potenciales efectos del cambio climático sobre la Distribución Nymphargus Ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)
dc.title.titleenglish.none.fl_str_mv	An assessment of the potential effects of climate change on the Distribution of Nymphargus ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)
title	Una evaluación de los potenciales efectos del cambio climático sobre la Distribución Nymphargus Ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)
spellingShingle	Una evaluación de los potenciales efectos del cambio climático sobre la Distribución Nymphargus Ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae) Especie Endémica Modelos de Nicho ecológico MaxEnt Precipitación Temperatura Licenciatura en Biología -- Tesis y disertaciones académicas Cambio climático y biodiversidad Distribución de especies y efectos del cambio climático Conservación de especies endémicas Impacto del cambio climático en los anfibios Endemic Species Ecological Niche models MaxEnt Precipitation Temperature
title_short	Una evaluación de los potenciales efectos del cambio climático sobre la Distribución Nymphargus Ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)
title_full	Una evaluación de los potenciales efectos del cambio climático sobre la Distribución Nymphargus Ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)
title_fullStr	Una evaluación de los potenciales efectos del cambio climático sobre la Distribución Nymphargus Ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)
title_full_unstemmed	Una evaluación de los potenciales efectos del cambio climático sobre la Distribución Nymphargus Ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)
title_sort	Una evaluación de los potenciales efectos del cambio climático sobre la Distribución Nymphargus Ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)
dc.creator.fl_str_mv	Sandoval Barbosa, Francy Johanna
dc.contributor.advisor.none.fl_str_mv	Mahecha Jimenez, Oscar Javier
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv	Sandoval Barbosa, Francy Johanna
dc.contributor.orcid.none.fl_str_mv	Mahecha Jimenez, Oscar Javier [0000-0002-8682-0020]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv	Especie Endémica Modelos de Nicho ecológico MaxEnt Precipitación Temperatura
topic	Especie Endémica Modelos de Nicho ecológico MaxEnt Precipitación Temperatura Licenciatura en Biología -- Tesis y disertaciones académicas Cambio climático y biodiversidad Distribución de especies y efectos del cambio climático Conservación de especies endémicas Impacto del cambio climático en los anfibios Endemic Species Ecological Niche models MaxEnt Precipitation Temperature
dc.subject.lemb.none.fl_str_mv	Licenciatura en Biología -- Tesis y disertaciones académicas Cambio climático y biodiversidad Distribución de especies y efectos del cambio climático Conservación de especies endémicas Impacto del cambio climático en los anfibios
dc.subject.keyword.none.fl_str_mv	Endemic Species Ecological Niche models MaxEnt Precipitation Temperature
description	El cambio climático antropogénico amenaza la biodiversidad global al ser el clima uno de los factores promotores de la reorganización de la misma. Los anfibios, especialmente los anuros, han mostrado alteraciones en sus patrones de diversidad y distribución debido a esta problemática. Este estudio evalúa cuáles son los potenciales efectos del Cambio Climático sobre la distribución de Nymphargus ignotus (Lynch, 1990), una rana de cristal endémica de la Cordillera Occidental de Colombia, bajo dos escenarios futuros del Sexto Informe de Evaluación (IE6) del IPCC (2021): el SSP1-2.6, con emisiones bajas de CO2 que alcanzarían el 0% para el 2070, y el SSP3-7.0 con emisiones de CO2 que duplicarían para el 2100 las concentraciones actuales. Los resultados preliminares aquí descritos proyectan una reducción significativa del área de distribución potencial de la especie bajo la trayectoria más crítica para el 2050. Considerando las bajas tasas de dispersión de los anuros y otras presiones adicionales como la pérdida y fragmentación del hábitat por minería y agricultura, es pertinente continuar evaluando las amenazas que enfrenta N. ignotus, cuyas poblaciones disminuyen gradualmente. Así mismo, es necesaria la consolidación de información de rangos de distribución, monitoreo de poblaciones y aspectos fundamentales en la historia natural de N. ignotus para integrar en estos modelos análisis más complejos. Se recomienda para futuras investigaciones realizar una adecuada parametrización del modelo, de forma tal que se eviten sesgos y sobreestimaciones. De esta manera sería posible prever y estructurar potenciales estrategias de conservación oportunas que mantengan la especie en su categoría de menor preocupación.
publishDate	2024
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv	2024-10-25T19:49:50Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv	2024-10-25T19:49:50Z
dc.date.created.none.fl_str_mv	2024-08-09
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv	bachelorThesis
dc.type.degree.none.fl_str_mv	Investigación-Innovación
dc.type.driver.none.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis
dc.type.coar.none.fl_str_mv	http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_7a1f
format	http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_7a1f
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv	http://hdl.handle.net/11349/42192
url	http://hdl.handle.net/11349/42192
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv	spa
language	spa
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spelling	Mahecha Jimenez, Oscar JavierSandoval Barbosa, Francy JohannaMahecha Jimenez, Oscar Javier [0000-0002-8682-0020]2024-10-25T19:49:50Z2024-10-25T19:49:50Z2024-08-09http://hdl.handle.net/11349/42192El cambio climático antropogénico amenaza la biodiversidad global al ser el clima uno de los factores promotores de la reorganización de la misma. Los anfibios, especialmente los anuros, han mostrado alteraciones en sus patrones de diversidad y distribución debido a esta problemática. Este estudio evalúa cuáles son los potenciales efectos del Cambio Climático sobre la distribución de Nymphargus ignotus (Lynch, 1990), una rana de cristal endémica de la Cordillera Occidental de Colombia, bajo dos escenarios futuros del Sexto Informe de Evaluación (IE6) del IPCC (2021): el SSP1-2.6, con emisiones bajas de CO2 que alcanzarían el 0% para el 2070, y el SSP3-7.0 con emisiones de CO2 que duplicarían para el 2100 las concentraciones actuales. Los resultados preliminares aquí descritos proyectan una reducción significativa del área de distribución potencial de la especie bajo la trayectoria más crítica para el 2050. Considerando las bajas tasas de dispersión de los anuros y otras presiones adicionales como la pérdida y fragmentación del hábitat por minería y agricultura, es pertinente continuar evaluando las amenazas que enfrenta N. ignotus, cuyas poblaciones disminuyen gradualmente. Así mismo, es necesaria la consolidación de información de rangos de distribución, monitoreo de poblaciones y aspectos fundamentales en la historia natural de N. ignotus para integrar en estos modelos análisis más complejos. Se recomienda para futuras investigaciones realizar una adecuada parametrización del modelo, de forma tal que se eviten sesgos y sobreestimaciones. De esta manera sería posible prever y estructurar potenciales estrategias de conservación oportunas que mantengan la especie en su categoría de menor preocupación.Anthropogenic climate change threatens global biodiversity as climate is one of the driving factors behind its reorganization. Amphibians, especially anurans, have shown alterations in their diversity and distribution patterns due to this issue. This study assesses the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of Nymphargus ignotus (Lynch, 1990), an endemic glass frog from the Western Cordillera of Colombia, under two future scenarios from the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the IPCC (2021): SSP1-2.6, with low CO2 emissions reaching 0% by 2070, and SSP3-7.0, with CO2 emissions doubling current concentrations by 2100. The preliminary results described here project a significant reduction in the potential distribution area of the species under the most critical trajectory by 2050. Considering the low dispersal rates of anurans and other additional pressures such as habitat loss and fragmentation due to mining and agriculture, it is pertinent to continue evaluating the threats faced by N. ignotus, whose populations are gradually decreasing. Additionally, it is necessary to consolidate information on distribution ranges, population monitoring, and fundamental aspects of the natural history of N. ignotus to incorporate more complex analyses into these models. It is recommended that future research includes proper model parameterization to avoid biases and overestimations. This would allow for the anticipation and development of timely conservation strategies that could maintain the species in its least concern category.pdfspaUniversidad Distrital Francisco José de CaldasEspecie EndémicaModelos de Nicho ecológicoMaxEntPrecipitaciónTemperaturaLicenciatura en Biología -- Tesis y disertaciones académicasCambio climático y biodiversidadDistribución de especies y efectos del cambio climáticoConservación de especies endémicasImpacto del cambio climático en los anfibiosEndemic SpeciesEcological Niche modelsMaxEntPrecipitationTemperatureUna evaluación de los potenciales efectos del cambio climático sobre la Distribución Nymphargus Ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)An assessment of the potential effects of climate change on the Distribution of Nymphargus ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)bachelorThesisInvestigación-Innovacióninfo:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesishttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_7a1fAbierto (Texto Completo)http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Acevedo, P., Jiménez-Valverde, A., Lobo, J. M., & Real, R. (2012). Delimiting the geographical background in species distribution modelling. Journal Of Biogeography, 39(8), 1383-1390. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2012.02713.xAcosta Galvis, A. (2021). Lista de los anfibios de Colombia: Nymphargus ignotus. BATRACHIA. Retrieved June 23, 2024, from https://www.batrachia.com/orden-anura/centrolenidae-81-spp/nymphargus-ignotus/Agudelo-Hz, W. J., & Armenteras, D. (2018). Cambio climático en Ecosistemas Andinos de Colombia: una revisión de sus efectos sobre la Biodiversidad. ResearchGate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328492678_Cambio_climatico_en_Ecosistemas_Andinos_de_Colombia_una_revision_de_sus_efectos_sobre_la_BiodiversidadAgudelo-Hz, W. J., Urbina-Cardona, N., & Armenteras-Pascual, D. (2019). Critical shifts on spatial traits and the risk of extinction of Andean anurans: an assessment of the combined effects of climate and land-use change in Colombia. 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

Una evaluación de los potenciales efectos del cambio climático sobre la Distribución Nymphargus Ignotus (Lynch, 1990) (Amphibia, Anura, Centrolenidae)

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