Distribución geográfica potencial de Guazuma ulmifolia lam. (Malvaceae) y Enterolobium cyclocarpum (Jacq.) Griseb. (Fabaceae) bajo escenarios del cambio climático en Colombia

Species will face various environmental pressures in the face of climate change, such as increases in temperature and variations in the hydrological cycle. This study was carried out with the objective of evaluating the variation of the potential geographic distribution of G. ulmifolia and E. cyclocarpum under climate change scenarios in Colombia based on maximum entropy modeling. For this, the MaxEnt software was used; 19 bioclimatic variables from Worldclim; presence points of G. ulmifolia (413) and E. cyclocarpum (298), obtained in the field and complemented with secondary information; and four general circulation scenarios (IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-MIROC5, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and GISS-E2H). Geographic distribution models were developed for G. ulmifolia (AUC = 0.906) and for E. cyclocarpum (AUC = 0.895), the results show that the geographic distribution of G. ulmifolia will vary, extending towards the Caribbean coasts; the south of the Pacific and the eastern mountain range, encompassing territories of the Orinoquía and Amazonía; while E. cyclocarpum will only be distributed on the Pacific coast and in small scattered patches in the Caribbean, Andean and Orinoquia regions. The bioclimatic variables that most influenced their geographic distributions were annual precipitation (Bio12) for G. ulmifolia and precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17) for E. cyclocarpum. Climate change will have direct effects on the areas of potential occupation of both species in the four scenarios and the two RCPs, for G. ulmifolia there will be increases of an average of 98,83% and for E. cyclocarpum there will be reductions of an average of 62,33%.

• Autores: Polo Álvarez, Andrés Felipe
• Tipo de recurso: Trabajo de grado de pregrado
• Fecha de publicación: 2022
• Institución: Universidad de Córdoba
• Repositorio: Repositorio Institucional Unicórdoba
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co:ucordoba/6272
• Acceso en línea: https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/handle/ucordoba/6272
• Palabra clave: Área de ocupación; Cambio climático; Distribución geográfica; E. cyclocarpum; G. ulmifolia; Maxent; Variables bioclimáticas; Area of occupation; Climate change; Geographical distribution; E. cyclocarpum; G. ulmifolia; Maxent; Bioclimatic variables
• Rights: openAccess
• License: Copyright Universidad de Córdoba, 2022