Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones
En este artículo se utilizan modelos dinámicos con datos de panel para estudiar los determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México con 39 socios comerciales en el periodo 1990-2016. La literatura señala al ingreso y al tipo de cambio real como las variables independientes clave. Asimismo, s...
- Autores:
-
Carrasco, Carlos Alberto
Tovar-García, Edgar Demetrio
- Tipo de recurso:
- Article of journal
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2019
- Institución:
- Universidad Católica de Colombia
- Repositorio:
- RIUCaC - Repositorio U. Católica
- Idioma:
- spa
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/25602
- Acceso en línea:
- https://hdl.handle.net/10983/25602
- Palabra clave:
- POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA
BALANCE COMERCIAL BILATERAL
COMPOSICIÓN DE LAS EXPORTACIONES
INDUSTRIAS DE ALTA INTENSIDAD TECNOLÓGICA
MÉXICO
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- Copyright, Universidad Católica de Colombia, 2019
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| dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones |
| dc.title.alternative.spa.fl_str_mv |
Determinants of Mexico’s Bilateral Trade Balance: Income, Exchange Rate, and Export Composition Determinantes da balança comercial bilateral mexicana: renda, taxa de câmbio e composição das exportações |
| title |
Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones |
| spellingShingle |
Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA BALANCE COMERCIAL BILATERAL COMPOSICIÓN DE LAS EXPORTACIONES INDUSTRIAS DE ALTA INTENSIDAD TECNOLÓGICA MÉXICO |
| title_short |
Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones |
| title_full |
Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones |
| title_fullStr |
Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones |
| title_sort |
Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Carrasco, Carlos Alberto Tovar-García, Edgar Demetrio |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Carrasco, Carlos Alberto Tovar-García, Edgar Demetrio |
| dc.subject.armarc.none.fl_str_mv |
POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA |
| topic |
POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA BALANCE COMERCIAL BILATERAL COMPOSICIÓN DE LAS EXPORTACIONES INDUSTRIAS DE ALTA INTENSIDAD TECNOLÓGICA MÉXICO |
| dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv |
BALANCE COMERCIAL BILATERAL COMPOSICIÓN DE LAS EXPORTACIONES INDUSTRIAS DE ALTA INTENSIDAD TECNOLÓGICA MÉXICO |
| description |
En este artículo se utilizan modelos dinámicos con datos de panel para estudiar los determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México con 39 socios comerciales en el periodo 1990-2016. La literatura señala al ingreso y al tipo de cambio real como las variables independientes clave. Asimismo, se incluye la composición de las exportaciones como variable explicativa (algo ignorado previamente). Los resultados difieren de otras investigaciones: no se encuentra evidencia robusta sobre el efecto del ingreso, hay evidencia de la importancia del tipo de cambio real y se encuentra un nexo positivo, aunque débil, con las exportaciones consistentes de bienes de alta tecnología, lo cual explica parcialmente el persistente déficit comercial de México. |
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2019 |
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2019-07 |
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2021-02-25T19:29:35Z |
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2021-02-25T19:29:35Z |
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Artículo de revista |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 |
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Carrasco, C. A., & Tovar-García, E. D. (2019). Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones. Revista de Finanzas y Política Económica, 11(2), 255-272. |
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2248-6046 |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10983/25602 |
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Carrasco, C. A., & Tovar-García, E. D. (2019). Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones. Revista de Finanzas y Política Económica, 11(2), 255-272. 2248-6046 |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10983/25602 |
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Revista Finanzas y Política Económica |
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Aditya, A. y Acharyya, R. (2013). Export diversification, composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), 959-992. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2011.619009 Arellano, M. y Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297. https://doi. org/10.2307/2297968 Arriaga Navarrete, R. y Landa Díaz, H. O. (2016). Competitividad del sector externo mexicano: un análisis de la condición Marshall-Lerner. Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas, 11(1), 79-101. https://www. remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/78 Bahmani-Oskooee, M. y Wang, Y. (2006). The J curve: China versus her trading partners. Bulletin of Economic Research, 58(4), 323-343. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12175 Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Hegerty, S. W. y Xu, J. (2013). Exchange-rate volatility and US–Hong Kong industry trade: is there evidence of a ‘third country’ effect? Applied Economics, 45(18), 2629-2651. http:// dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12521 Bahmani-Oskooee, M. y Saha, S. (2017). Asymmetric response of the US-India trade balance to exchange rate changes: Evidence from 68 industries. The World Economy, 40(10), 2226-2254. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.0307-3378.2006.00247.x Bahmani-Oskooee, M. y Harvey, H. (2018). The U.S. Trade balance with partners from developing world: An asymmetry analysis of the J-curve effect. Journal of Economic Development, 43(2), 29-43. https://pennstate. pure.elsevier.com/en/publications/the-us-trade-balance-with-partners-from-developing-world-an-asymm Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Harvey, H. y Hegerty, S. W. (2018). The real peso-dollar rate and US-Mexico industry trade: An asymmetric analysis. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 65(4), 350-389. https://doi. org/10.1080/00036846.2012.654918 Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data (3.a ed.). Chichester: Johnv Wiley & Sons. Baltazar Escalona, J. C. y Ramos Escamilla, M. (2014). México: comercio exterior, producto y condición de Marshall-Lerner. Tiempo Económico, 27(9), 5-26. Https//doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.29436.54409 Bineau, Y. (2016). Real exchange rate and bilateral trade balance of Cambodia: A panel investigation. Economics Bulletin, 36(2), 895-900. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-16-00075.html Blanchard, E. J. y Olney, W. W. (2017). Globalization and human capital investment: Export composition drives educational attainment. Journal of International Economics, 106, 165-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jinteco.2017.03.004 Blundell, R. y Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8 Botta, A. (2014). Structural asymmetries at the roots of the eurozone crisis: What’s new for industrial policy in the EU? PSL Quarterly Review, 67(269), 169-216. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2420168 Bravo-Ortega, C., Benavente, J. M. y González, Á. (2014). Innovation, exports, and productivity: Learning and self-selection in Chile. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50(s1), 68-95. https://doi.org/10.2753/ REE1540-496X5001S105 Brissimis, S. N., Hondroyiannis, G., Papazoglou, C., Tsaveas, N. T. y Vasardani, M. A. (2013). The determinants of current account imbalances in the euro area: A panel estimation approach. Economic Change and Restructuring, 46(3), 299-319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-012-9129-0 Bruno, G. S. F. (2005). Estimation and inference in dynamic unbalanced panel-data models with a small number of individuals. Stata Journal, 5(4), 473-500. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tsj:stataj:v:5: y:2005:i:4:p:473-500 Calderon, C. A., Chong, A. y Loayza, N. V. (2002). Determinants of current account deficits in developing countries. Contributions in Macroeconomics, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.2202/1534-6005.1021 Calderón, C. y Sánchez, I. (2012). Crecimiento económico y política industrial en México. Problemas del Desarrollo, 170(4), 125-154. http://dx.doi.org/10.22201/iiec.20078951e.2012.170.32138 Carrasco, C. A. y Hernandez-del-Valle, A. (2017). Revisiting the factors behind European external imbalances. Journal of Economic Integration, 32(2), 324-357. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2017.32.2.324 Carrasco, C. A. y Peinado, P. (2015). On the origin of european imbalances in the context of European integration. Panoeconomicus, 62(2), 177-191. https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN1502177C Carrasco, C. A. y Serrano, F. (2015). Global and European imbalances and the crisis: A critical review. En The demise of finance-dominated capitalism (pp. 265-288). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing. Çelik, S. y Kaya, H. (2010). Real exchange rates and bilateral trade dynamics of Turkey: Panel cointegration approach. Applied Economics Letters, 17(8), 791-795. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850802388993 Cooper, J. C. B. (2003). Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries. OPEC Review, 27(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0076.00121 Dickey, D. A. y Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348 Dickey, D. A. y Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517 Dooley, M. P. (2000). A model of crises in emerging markets. The Economic Journal, 110(460), 256-272. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00500 Fosu, A. K. (1990). Export composition and the impact of exports on economic growth of developing economies. Economics Letters, 34(1), 67-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(90)90183-2 Fujii, G. (2000). El comercio exterior manufacturero y los límites al crecimiento económico de México. Comercio Exterior. http://revistas.bancomext.gob.mx/rce/magazines/42/9/RCE.pdf Fujii, G., Candaudap, E. y Gaona, C. (2005). Exportaciones, industria maquiladora y crecimiento económico en México a partir de la década de los noventa. Investigación Económica, 64(254), 125-156. http:// www.scielo.org.mx/pdf/ineco/v64n254/0185-1667-ineco-64-254-125.pdf Fujii, G. y Cervantes, R. (2013). México: valor agregado en las exportaciones manufactureras. Revista CEPAL, 109, 143-158. https://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/11575 Galindo, L. M. y Guerrero, C. (1997). Factores determinantes de la balanza comercial de México 1980- 1995. Comercio Exterior, 10, 789-794. http://revistas.bancomext.gob.mx/rce/magazines/340/2/RCE2.pdf Garcés Díaz, D. G. (2008). Análisis de las funciones de importación y exportación de México (1980- 2000). El Trimestre Económico, 75(297), 109-141. http://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com.mx/index.php/ te/article/view/393/592 Ghatak, S., Milner, C. y Utkulu, U. (1997). Exports, export composition and growth: Cointegration and causality evidence for Malaysia. Applied Economics, 29(2), 213-223. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368497327272 Gu, X., Zhou, Z.-Y. y Beg, A. B. (2014). What determines China’s trade balance dynamics: A disaggregate analysis of panel data. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 19(2), 353-368. https://doi.org/10.1080/1354 7860.2014.880284 Herzer, D., Nowak-Lehmann, F. y Siliverstovs, B. (2006). Export-led growth in Chile: Assessing the role of export composition in productivity growth. The Developing Economies, 44(3), 306-328. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2006.00019.x Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. y Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7 Johnson, R. C. (2014). Five facts about value-added exports and implications for macroeconomics and trade research. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 119-142. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.28.2.119 Khan, M. Z. S. y Hossain, M. I. (2010). A model of bilateral trade balance: Extensions and empirical tests. Economic Analysis and Policy, 40(3), 377-391. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0313-5926(10)50037-7 Khan, M. Z. S. y Hossain, M. I. (2012). Determinants of trade balance of Bangladesh: A dynamic panel data analysis. Bangladesh Development Studies, 35(2), 45-65. https://bids.org.bd/uploads/publication/ BDS/35/35-2/02_Determinants%20of%20Trade.pdf Krichene, N. (2002). World crude oil and natural gas: A demand and supply model. Energy Economics, 24(6), 557-576. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(02)00061-0 Krugman, P. R. y Baldwin, R. E. (1987). The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1987(1), 1-55. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6252194.pdf Lagunes Pérez, M. A. y Pérez Villarreal, H. H. (2016). Tipo de cambio y determinantes de las exportaciones en periodos de volatilidad financiera en la zona del tratado de libre comercio de Norteamérica. Revista Internacional Administración & Finanzas, 9(2), 61-71. ftp://ftp.repec.org/opt/ReDIF/RePEc/ibf/riafin/riafv9n2- 2016/RIAF-V9N2-2016-5.pdf Maddala, G. S. y Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(s1), 631-652. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631 Márquez Ortiz, J. C. (2018). Determinantes de la balanza comercial en México 2000-2014. Managment Review, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.18583/umr.v3i1.104.g219 Mazzucato, M. et al. (2015). Which industrial policy does Europe need? Intereconomics, 50(3), 120-155. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-015-0535-1 Mishkin, F. (1996). Understanding financial crises: A developing country perspective. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research. Moreno-Brid, J. C. y Ros-Bosch, J. (2010). Desarrollo y crecimiento en la economía mexicana. Una perspectiva histórica. Ciudad de México: Fondo de Cultura Económica. Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos (OCDE) (2017). STAN Bilateral Database ISIC4. Recuperado de https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=BTDIXE Phillips, P. C. B. y Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182 Roodman, D. (2009). A note on the theme of too many instruments. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 135-158. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00542.x Secretaría de Economía (2015). Comercio exterior / Países con tratados y acuerdos firmados con México. Recuperado de https://www.gob.mx/se/acciones-y-programas/comercio-exterior-paises-con-tratados-y -acuerdos-firmados-con-mexico Sheridan, B. J. (2014). Manufacturing exports and growth: When is a developing country ready to transition from primary exports to manufacturing exports? Journal of Macroeconomics, 42, 1-13. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.06.002 Srholec, M. (2007). High-tech exports from developing countries: A symptom of technology spurts or statistical illusion? Review of World Economics, 143(2), 227-255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-007-0106-z Tovar-García, E. D. (2018). Does the share of crude petroleum and natural gas in exports increase total exports? The Russian case. World Economy and International Relations, 62(6), 30-35. https://doi. org/10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-6-30-35 Tovar-García, E. D. y Carrasco, C. A. (2019). Export and import composition as determinants of bilateral trade in goods: Evidence from Russia. Post-Communist Economies, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/146313 77.2018.1557913 Varela Llamas, R. (1999). Factores determinantes del saldo de la balanza comercial en México, 1989-1998. Comercio Exterior, 10, 939-943. Wade, R. (2010). After the Crisis: Industrial Policy and the Developmental State in Low-Income Countries. Global Policy, 1(2), 150-161. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1758-5899.2010.00036.x Wierts, P., Van Kerkhoff, H. y De Haan, J. (2014). Composition of exports and export performance of Eurozone countries. Journal of Common Market Studies, 52(4), 928-941. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12114 Zakir, M. e Ismail, M. (2010). A model of bilateral trade balance: Extensions and empirical tests. Economic Analysis and Policy, 40(3), 377-391. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0313-5926(10)50037-7 |
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Carrasco, Carlos Alberto5e6c1aaf-c5be-4f7d-90db-167e0b3dbcbf-1Tovar-García, Edgar Demetrio706ac385-0c35-47d7-a6e0-9d9088cc1ab9-12021-02-25T19:29:35Z2021-02-25T19:29:35Z2019-07En este artículo se utilizan modelos dinámicos con datos de panel para estudiar los determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México con 39 socios comerciales en el periodo 1990-2016. La literatura señala al ingreso y al tipo de cambio real como las variables independientes clave. Asimismo, se incluye la composición de las exportaciones como variable explicativa (algo ignorado previamente). Los resultados difieren de otras investigaciones: no se encuentra evidencia robusta sobre el efecto del ingreso, hay evidencia de la importancia del tipo de cambio real y se encuentra un nexo positivo, aunque débil, con las exportaciones consistentes de bienes de alta tecnología, lo cual explica parcialmente el persistente déficit comercial de México.Using dynamic panel data models, this paper studies the determinants of Mexico’s bilateral trade balance with 39 trade partners from 1990 to 2016. The literature points to income and real exchange rate as key independentvariables. This study includes export composition as an explanatory variable (a previously neglected aspect). Results differ from other researches: there is no robust evidence on the effect of income; there is evidence of the association between bilateral balance and real exchange rate; and there is a weak positive link with exports consisting of high-tech goods, partially explaining Mexico’s persistent trade deficit.Neste artigo, são utilizados modelos dinâmicos de dados em painel a fim de estudar os determinantes da balança comercial bilateral mexicana com 39 parceiros comerciais de 1990 a 2016. A literatura indica que a renda e a taxa de câmbio real são as principais variáveis independentes. Aqui, a composição da exportação é incluída como variável explicativa, o que não era considerado antes. Os resultados diferem de outras pesquisas: não há evidências sólidas sobre o efeito da renda; há evidências da importância da taxa de câmbio real e verifica-se uma associação positiva, embora fraca, com as exportações de bens de alta tecnologia, o que explica parcialmente o persistente déficit comercial do México.18 páginasapplication/pdfCarrasco, C. A., & Tovar-García, E. D. (2019). Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones. Revista de Finanzas y Política Económica, 11(2), 255-272.2248-6046https://hdl.handle.net/10983/25602spaUniversidad Católica de Colombia. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y AdministrativasBogotá272225511Revista Finanzas y Política EconómicaAditya, A. y Acharyya, R. (2013). Export diversification, composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis. 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Economic Analysis and Policy, 40(3), 377-391. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0313-5926(10)50037-7Copyright, Universidad Católica de Colombia, 2019info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2POLÍTICA ECONÓMICABALANCE COMERCIAL BILATERALCOMPOSICIÓN DE LAS EXPORTACIONESINDUSTRIAS DE ALTA INTENSIDAD TECNOLÓGICAMÉXICODeterminantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportacionesDeterminants of Mexico’s Bilateral Trade Balance: Income, Exchange Rate, and Export CompositionDeterminantes da balança comercial bilateral mexicana: renda, taxa de câmbio e composição das exportaçõesArtículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85PublicationORIGINAL2203-Texto del artículo-19826-2-10-20200302.pdf2203-Texto del artículo-19826-2-10-20200302.pdfapplication/pdf627904https://repository.ucatolica.edu.co/bitstreams/d08fdd7b-dca8-486c-9d9c-98aaa91da942/download2fb57f29a02ac8fec53eee11365bf8baMD51TEXT2203-Texto del artículo-19826-2-10-20200302.pdf.txt2203-Texto del artículo-19826-2-10-20200302.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain58526https://repository.ucatolica.edu.co/bitstreams/c1e31344-9367-48f4-8cd5-f0fcdcf857ea/downloadfd8ae28fa583cb537f0456345abd33f7MD52THUMBNAIL2203-Texto del artículo-19826-2-10-20200302.pdf.jpg2203-Texto del artículo-19826-2-10-20200302.pdf.jpgRIUCACimage/jpeg23374https://repository.ucatolica.edu.co/bitstreams/0546fe4f-f4ae-472b-821e-c00686ffc315/download80384e4d485da9429170c84484b666e5MD5310983/25602oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/256022023-03-24 17:31:18.995https://repository.ucatolica.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad Católica de Colombia - RIUCaCbdigital@metabiblioteca.com |