Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico

This article seeks to determine the effect of oil prices on gross domestic product (GDP) in the member countries of the Pacific Alliance (PA). A structural VAR model and quarterly data are used, which allow concluding that there is a long-term relationship between the international price of oil and...

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Autores:
Alonso-Cifuentes, Julio César
Martínez-Quintero, Diego Alexánder
Tipo de recurso:
Article of journal
Fecha de publicación:
2017
Institución:
Universidad Católica de Colombia
Repositorio:
RIUCaC - Repositorio U. Católica
Idioma:
spa
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/16956
Acceso en línea:
https://hdl.handle.net/10983/16956
Palabra clave:
ALIANZA DEL PACÍFICO
PRECIO DEL PETRÓLEO
PIB
SERIES DE TIEMPO
VAR
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openAccess
License
Derechos Reservados - Universidad Católica de Colombia, 2017
id UCATOLICA2_ee0379c8d25b4a09024d722e29ba1d6e
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network_acronym_str UCATOLICA2
network_name_str RIUCaC - Repositorio U. Católica
repository_id_str
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico
title Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico
spellingShingle Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico
ALIANZA DEL PACÍFICO
PRECIO DEL PETRÓLEO
PIB
SERIES DE TIEMPO
VAR
title_short Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico
title_full Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico
title_fullStr Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico
title_full_unstemmed Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico
title_sort Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Alonso-Cifuentes, Julio César
Martínez-Quintero, Diego Alexánder
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv Alonso-Cifuentes, Julio César
Martínez-Quintero, Diego Alexánder
dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv ALIANZA DEL PACÍFICO
PRECIO DEL PETRÓLEO
PIB
SERIES DE TIEMPO
VAR
topic ALIANZA DEL PACÍFICO
PRECIO DEL PETRÓLEO
PIB
SERIES DE TIEMPO
VAR
description This article seeks to determine the effect of oil prices on gross domestic product (GDP) in the member countries of the Pacific Alliance (PA). A structural VAR model and quarterly data are used, which allow concluding that there is a long-term relationship between the international price of oil and GDP in each of the PA member countries. It was found that an unexpected increase in oil prices does not affect the level of economic activity in Peru. For Chile, which is a net importer of oil, a similar shock effect increases GDP, contrary to what is expected in theory. For Mexico and Colombia, net exporters of oil, an unexpected positive oil price shock positively affects GDP; in Colombia, the positive effect is observed in the first six quarters, while for Mexico it is only present in the second and third quarters. These countries’ heterogeneous responses to oil price shocks are evidence of the many challenges that economic policy coordination among PA member countries has to face.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.issued.spa.fl_str_mv 2017-07
dc.date.accessioned.spa.fl_str_mv 2018-09-01T18:00:44Z
dc.date.available.spa.fl_str_mv 2018-09-01T18:00:44Z
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo de revista
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dc.identifier.citation.spa.fl_str_mv Alonso, J. C. & Martínez-Quintero, D. A. (2017). Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 9, p. 249 - 264.
dc.identifier.issn.spa.fl_str_mv 2248-6046
dc.identifier.uri.spa.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10983/16956
identifier_str_mv Alonso, J. C. & Martínez-Quintero, D. A. (2017). Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 9, p. 249 - 264.
2248-6046
url https://hdl.handle.net/10983/16956
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv spa
language spa
dc.relation.ispartof.spa.fl_str_mv Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, Vol. 9, no. 2 (jul. – dic. 2017); p. 249 – 264. http://dx.doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2017.9.2.3
dc.relation.references.spa.fl_str_mv Alarco, G. (2006). La evolución del precio del petróleo crudo y la economía de México, 1975-2004. Comercio Exterior, 56(9), 930-944.
Alonso, J. C., y Semaán, P. (2010). Prueba de HEGY. Apuntes de Economía, 23, 1-28.
Backus, D. K., y Crucini, M. J. (2000). Oil prices and the terms of trade. Journal of International Economics, 50(1), 185-213.
Basnet, H. C., y Upadhyaya, K. P. (2015). Impact of oil price shocks on output, inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected ASEAN countries. Applied Economics, 47, 3078-3091.
Bernanke, B. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85-106.
Breitung, J. (2002). Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration. Journal of Econometrics, 108(2), 343-363.
Brown, S. P. A., y Yücel, M. K. (2002). Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42(2), 193-208.
Cebula, R., Saadatmand, Y. y Piccone, Y. (2002). An empirical note on the inflation impact of the price of imported crude oil: The case of Germany. Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali, 49(4), 531-537.
Christiano, L. J., Eichenbaum, M., y Vigfusson, R. (2007). Assessing structural vars. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 21, 1-106).
Cologni, A., y Manera, M. (2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated {VAR} model for the G-7 countries. Energy Economics, 30(3), 856-888.
Cunado, J., y de Gracia, F. P. (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45(1), 65-83.
Denis, D., y Etornam, D. K. (2015). Granger causality analysis on Ghana’s macro-economic performance and oil price fluctuations. Journal of Resources Development and Management, 6, 1-5.
Dickey, D. A., y Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
Enders, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series. Wiley series in probability and mathematical statistics (2.a ed.). Hoboken: J. Wiley.
Farzanegan, M. R. y Markwardt, G. (2009). The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy. Energy Economics, 31(1), 134-151.
Fernald, J. G., y Trehan, B. (2005). Why hasn’t the jump in oil prices led to a recession? FRBSF Economic Letter. San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Gallardo, J., Vásquez Cordano, A., y Bendezú, L. (2005). La problemática de los precios de los combustibles. Recuperado de http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:ose:wpaper:11
Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228-248.
Hamilton, J. D. (1996). This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship. Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 215-220.
Hamilton, J. D. (2003). What is an oil shock? Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), 363-398.
He, Y., Wang, S., y Lai, K. K. (2010). Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis. Energy Economics, 32(4), 868-876.
Hooker, M. A. (1996). What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 195-213.
Hooker, M. A. (1999). Oil and the Macroeconomy Revisited. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ ssrn.186014
Huntington, H. G. (1998). Crude Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Performance: Where does the asymmetry reside? The Energy Journal, 19(4), 107-132.
Hylleberg, S., Engle, R., Granger, C. W. J. y Yoo, B. S. (1990). Seasonal integration and cointegration. Journal of Econometrics, 44, 215-238.
Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., y Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, 37(2), 201-228.
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration factors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
Kilian, L. (2008). Exogenous oil supply shocks: How big are they and how much do They Matter for the U.S. Economy? Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), 216-240.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., y Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178.
Lardic, S., y Mignon, V. (2008). Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach. Energy Economics, 30(3), 847-855.
Mork, K. A. y Hall, R. E. (1980). Energy prices, inflation, and recession, 1974-1975. The Energy Journal, 1(3), 31-63.
Nelson, C. R., y Plosser, C. R. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162.
Park, C., Chung, M., y Lee, S. (2011). The effects of oil price on regional economies with different production structures: A case study from Korea using a structural {VAR} model. Energy Policy, 39(12), 8185-8195.
Pedersen, M., y Ricaurte, M. (2013). Efectos de shocks al precio del petróleo sobre la economía de Chile y sus socios comerciales. Recuperado de http://vox.lacea.org/?q=precio_petroleo_chile
Perilla, J. R. (2010). El impacto de los precios del petróleo sobre el crecimiento económico en Colombia. Revista de Economía del Rosario, 13(1), 75-116.
Phillips, P. C. B., y Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
Sill, K. (2007). The macroeconomics of oil shocks. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Business Review, 1(1), 21-31.
Zaidi, M. A. S., Karim, Z. A., y Azman-Saini, W. N. W. (2013). Foreign and domestic shocks: Macroeconomic responses of ASEAN-3 Countries. Global Economic Review, 42(3), 215-237.
Zhang, W., y Qianqian, Z. (2011). The Impact of international oil price fluctuation on China’s Economy. Energy Procedia, 5, 1360-1364.
Zivot, E., y Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.
dc.rights.spa.fl_str_mv Derechos Reservados - Universidad Católica de Colombia, 2017
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spelling Alonso-Cifuentes, Julio César80712f64-0abb-4338-8cd8-96e5f5149807Martínez-Quintero, Diego Alexánder968bcfed-99b9-4aca-a335-bc13a214bf21-12018-09-01T18:00:44Z2018-09-01T18:00:44Z2017-07This article seeks to determine the effect of oil prices on gross domestic product (GDP) in the member countries of the Pacific Alliance (PA). A structural VAR model and quarterly data are used, which allow concluding that there is a long-term relationship between the international price of oil and GDP in each of the PA member countries. It was found that an unexpected increase in oil prices does not affect the level of economic activity in Peru. For Chile, which is a net importer of oil, a similar shock effect increases GDP, contrary to what is expected in theory. For Mexico and Colombia, net exporters of oil, an unexpected positive oil price shock positively affects GDP; in Colombia, the positive effect is observed in the first six quarters, while for Mexico it is only present in the second and third quarters. These countries’ heterogeneous responses to oil price shocks are evidence of the many challenges that economic policy coordination among PA member countries has to face.Este artículo busca determinar el efecto del precio del petróleo sobre el producto interno bruto (PIB) en cada uno de los países que integran la Alianza del Pacífico (AP). Se emplea un modelo VAR estructural y datos trimestrales que permiten concluir que existe una relación de largo plazo entre el precio internacional del petróleo y el PIB en cada uno de los países miembro de la AP. Se encuentra que un aumento inesperado en los precios del petróleo no afecta el nivel de actividad económica en Perú. Para Chile, un importador neto de petróleo, el efecto de choque similar genera un aumento en el PIB, contrario a lo que se esperaría teóricamente. Para México y Colombia, exportadores netos de petróleo, el efecto de un choque positivo inesperado en el precio de petróleo es positivo sobre el PIB: en Colombia, el efecto positivo se observa para los primeros seis trimestres, mientras que para México solo está presente en el segundo y tercer trimestre. La heterogeneidad en la respuesta de estos países a choques en el precio del petróleo muestra los grandes retos que implicará la coordinación de la política económica entre los países miembro de la AP.application/pdfAlonso, J. C. & Martínez-Quintero, D. A. (2017). Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 9, p. 249 - 264.2248-6046https://hdl.handle.net/10983/16956spaUniversidad Católica de Colombia. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y AdministrativasRevista Finanzas y Política Económica, Vol. 9, no. 2 (jul. – dic. 2017); p. 249 – 264. http://dx.doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2017.9.2.3Alarco, G. (2006). La evolución del precio del petróleo crudo y la economía de México, 1975-2004. Comercio Exterior, 56(9), 930-944.Alonso, J. C., y Semaán, P. (2010). Prueba de HEGY. Apuntes de Economía, 23, 1-28.Backus, D. K., y Crucini, M. J. (2000). Oil prices and the terms of trade. Journal of International Economics, 50(1), 185-213.Basnet, H. C., y Upadhyaya, K. P. (2015). Impact of oil price shocks on output, inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected ASEAN countries. Applied Economics, 47, 3078-3091.Bernanke, B. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85-106.Breitung, J. (2002). Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration. Journal of Econometrics, 108(2), 343-363.Brown, S. P. A., y Yücel, M. K. (2002). Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42(2), 193-208.Cebula, R., Saadatmand, Y. y Piccone, Y. (2002). An empirical note on the inflation impact of the price of imported crude oil: The case of Germany. Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali, 49(4), 531-537.Christiano, L. J., Eichenbaum, M., y Vigfusson, R. (2007). Assessing structural vars. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 21, 1-106).Cologni, A., y Manera, M. (2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated {VAR} model for the G-7 countries. Energy Economics, 30(3), 856-888.Cunado, J., y de Gracia, F. P. (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45(1), 65-83.Denis, D., y Etornam, D. K. (2015). Granger causality analysis on Ghana’s macro-economic performance and oil price fluctuations. Journal of Resources Development and Management, 6, 1-5.Dickey, D. A., y Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.Enders, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series. Wiley series in probability and mathematical statistics (2.a ed.). Hoboken: J. Wiley.Farzanegan, M. R. y Markwardt, G. (2009). The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy. Energy Economics, 31(1), 134-151.Fernald, J. G., y Trehan, B. (2005). Why hasn’t the jump in oil prices led to a recession? FRBSF Economic Letter. San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.Gallardo, J., Vásquez Cordano, A., y Bendezú, L. (2005). La problemática de los precios de los combustibles. Recuperado de http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:ose:wpaper:11Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228-248.Hamilton, J. D. (1996). This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship. Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 215-220.Hamilton, J. D. (2003). What is an oil shock? Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), 363-398.He, Y., Wang, S., y Lai, K. K. (2010). Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis. Energy Economics, 32(4), 868-876.Hooker, M. A. (1996). What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 195-213.Hooker, M. A. (1999). Oil and the Macroeconomy Revisited. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ ssrn.186014Huntington, H. G. (1998). Crude Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Performance: Where does the asymmetry reside? The Energy Journal, 19(4), 107-132.Hylleberg, S., Engle, R., Granger, C. W. J. y Yoo, B. S. (1990). Seasonal integration and cointegration. Journal of Econometrics, 44, 215-238.Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., y Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, 37(2), 201-228.Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration factors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.Kilian, L. (2008). Exogenous oil supply shocks: How big are they and how much do They Matter for the U.S. Economy? Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), 216-240.Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., y Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178.Lardic, S., y Mignon, V. (2008). Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach. Energy Economics, 30(3), 847-855.Mork, K. A. y Hall, R. E. (1980). Energy prices, inflation, and recession, 1974-1975. The Energy Journal, 1(3), 31-63.Nelson, C. R., y Plosser, C. R. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162.Park, C., Chung, M., y Lee, S. (2011). The effects of oil price on regional economies with different production structures: A case study from Korea using a structural {VAR} model. Energy Policy, 39(12), 8185-8195.Pedersen, M., y Ricaurte, M. (2013). Efectos de shocks al precio del petróleo sobre la economía de Chile y sus socios comerciales. Recuperado de http://vox.lacea.org/?q=precio_petroleo_chilePerilla, J. R. (2010). El impacto de los precios del petróleo sobre el crecimiento económico en Colombia. Revista de Economía del Rosario, 13(1), 75-116.Phillips, P. C. B., y Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.Sill, K. (2007). The macroeconomics of oil shocks. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Business Review, 1(1), 21-31.Zaidi, M. A. S., Karim, Z. A., y Azman-Saini, W. N. W. (2013). Foreign and domestic shocks: Macroeconomic responses of ASEAN-3 Countries. Global Economic Review, 42(3), 215-237.Zhang, W., y Qianqian, Z. (2011). The Impact of international oil price fluctuation on China’s Economy. Energy Procedia, 5, 1360-1364.Zivot, E., y Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.Derechos Reservados - Universidad Católica de Colombia, 2017info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2https://editorial.ucatolica.edu.co/ojsucatolica/revistas_ucatolica/index.php/RFYPE/article/view/1828/1660ALIANZA DEL PACÍFICOPRECIO DEL PETRÓLEOPIBSERIES DE TIEMPOVARImpacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del PacíficoArtículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARTinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85PublicationORIGINALImpacto del precio del petroleo sobre el PIB de los paises de la alianza del pacifico.pdfImpacto del precio del petroleo sobre el PIB de los paises de la alianza del pacifico.pdfapplication/pdf1094860https://repository.ucatolica.edu.co/bitstreams/5d0dc7dd-4bf7-4a99-845b-530bb6bf4292/downloadc82a8c7883d6b3fc39113375544fe93eMD51TEXTImpacto del precio del petroleo sobre el PIB de los paises de la alianza del pacifico.pdf.txtImpacto del precio del petroleo sobre el PIB de los paises de la alianza del pacifico.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain53250https://repository.ucatolica.edu.co/bitstreams/4866d93b-ee9d-45f3-a800-33ea7641837b/downloade248dc94996215d01897df1bcec1fdf3MD52THUMBNAILImpacto del precio del petroleo sobre el PIB de los paises de la alianza del pacifico.pdf.jpgImpacto del precio del petroleo sobre el PIB de los paises de la alianza del pacifico.pdf.jpgRIUCACimage/jpeg27687https://repository.ucatolica.edu.co/bitstreams/b7e727e8-03c5-4379-8008-3823f9a56ab8/downloadba87e122f91b82dd0263fa426d8796a6MD5310983/16956oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/169562023-03-24 16:46:30.146https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Derechos Reservados - Universidad Católica de Colombia, 2017https://repository.ucatolica.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad Católica de Colombia - RIUCaCbdigital@metabiblioteca.com

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