Impacto del precio del petróleo sobre el PIB de los países de la Alianza del Pacífico
This article seeks to determine the effect of oil prices on gross domestic product (GDP) in the member countries of the Pacific Alliance (PA). A structural VAR model and quarterly data are used, which allow concluding that there is a long-term relationship between the international price of oil and...
- Autores:
-
Alonso-Cifuentes, Julio César
Martínez-Quintero, Diego Alexánder
- Tipo de recurso:
- Article of journal
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2017
- Institución:
- Universidad Católica de Colombia
- Repositorio:
- RIUCaC - Repositorio U. Católica
- Idioma:
- spa
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/16956
- Acceso en línea:
- https://hdl.handle.net/10983/16956
- Palabra clave:
- ALIANZA DEL PACÍFICO
PRECIO DEL PETRÓLEO
PIB
SERIES DE TIEMPO
VAR
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- Derechos Reservados - Universidad Católica de Colombia, 2017
| Summary: | This article seeks to determine the effect of oil prices on gross domestic product (GDP) in the member countries of the Pacific Alliance (PA). A structural VAR model and quarterly data are used, which allow concluding that there is a long-term relationship between the international price of oil and GDP in each of the PA member countries. It was found that an unexpected increase in oil prices does not affect the level of economic activity in Peru. For Chile, which is a net importer of oil, a similar shock effect increases GDP, contrary to what is expected in theory. For Mexico and Colombia, net exporters of oil, an unexpected positive oil price shock positively affects GDP; in Colombia, the positive effect is observed in the first six quarters, while for Mexico it is only present in the second and third quarters. These countries’ heterogeneous responses to oil price shocks are evidence of the many challenges that economic policy coordination among PA member countries has to face. |
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