Sostenibilidad y vulnerabilidad de la deuda pública Colombiana

In the present paper is studied the relations between the fiscal policy and the indebtedness, in terms of its viability and macroeconomic sustainability, within the framework of the dynamics of the growth of the country and its restrictions. On the fiscal frame and the structure of the indebtedness of the country, one analyzes the sustainability and vulnerability of the national debt from the point of view of the internal and external shocks. The analysis of sustainability of the national debt start of the budgetary restriction of the government, evaluating the increase of the coefficient of debt due to the real interest rate, the growth of the economy (effect snow ball) the primary deficit (like proportion of the GDF) and the effect stock-flow, which reflects the growth of the coefficient of debt by reasons, such as the devaluation - that it increases the national debt external valued in national currency or by valuations and/0r statistical discrepancies. The model it evaluates the objectives of the economic policy (income, expenses, deficit or surplus, risk country) in terms of the debt coefficient. The results show how much greater it is the participation of the debt extracted within the total debt, greater the real devaluation will be its vulnerability to changes and in the rate of you commit international. The made estimations indicate that an increase in the external interest rate (on its observed levels), marginally make worse the imbalance in the finances of the central government. The sostenibility breach does not vary of important way. In terms of the type of change average the results differ since and devaluation, elevates the breach of not sostenibility. The results of the sensitivity analysis allow to recommend that it is deepen

• Autores: Lozano-Espitia, Luis Ignacio; Laverde-Rojas, Henry
• Tipo de recurso: Article of journal
• Fecha de publicación: 2007
• Institución: Universidad Católica de Colombia
• Repositorio: RIUCaC - Repositorio U. Católica
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/16456
• Acceso en línea: https://hdl.handle.net/10983/16456
• Palabra clave: DEUDA; VULNERABILIDAD; SOSTENIBILIDAD; SOLVENCIA; COEFICIENTE DE DEUDA
• Rights: openAccess
• License: Derechos Reservados - Universidad Católica de Colombia, 2007