Relación asimétrica entre el gasto militar, el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial: un análisis empírico de India, China y Pakistán implementando el método NARDL
Este trabajo de investigación pretende comprobar cómo el gasto militar promueve el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial, como sugiere el postulado militar keynesiano. El método NARDL se emplea para lograr el objetivo anterior en los datos de panel de India, China y Pakistán que cubren...
- Autores:
-
Aijaz-Syed, Aamir
- Tipo de recurso:
- Article of investigation
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2020
- Institución:
- Universidad Católica de Colombia
- Repositorio:
- RIUCaC - Repositorio U. Católica
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/29434
- Acceso en línea:
- https://hdl.handle.net/10983/29434
https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v13.n1.2021.4
- Palabra clave:
- Military spending
Asymmetric economic growth
Nardl
Military keynesianism
Gasto militar
Crecimiento económico asimétrico
Nardl
Keynesianismo militar
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- Aamir Syed - 2021
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Relación asimétrica entre el gasto militar, el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial: un análisis empírico de India, China y Pakistán implementando el método NARDL |
| dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv |
The Asymmetric Relationship Between Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Industrial Productivity: An Empirical Analysis of India, China and Pakistan Via the NARDL Approach |
| title |
Relación asimétrica entre el gasto militar, el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial: un análisis empírico de India, China y Pakistán implementando el método NARDL |
| spellingShingle |
Relación asimétrica entre el gasto militar, el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial: un análisis empírico de India, China y Pakistán implementando el método NARDL Military spending Asymmetric economic growth Nardl Military keynesianism Gasto militar Crecimiento económico asimétrico Nardl Keynesianismo militar |
| title_short |
Relación asimétrica entre el gasto militar, el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial: un análisis empírico de India, China y Pakistán implementando el método NARDL |
| title_full |
Relación asimétrica entre el gasto militar, el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial: un análisis empírico de India, China y Pakistán implementando el método NARDL |
| title_fullStr |
Relación asimétrica entre el gasto militar, el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial: un análisis empírico de India, China y Pakistán implementando el método NARDL |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Relación asimétrica entre el gasto militar, el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial: un análisis empírico de India, China y Pakistán implementando el método NARDL |
| title_sort |
Relación asimétrica entre el gasto militar, el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial: un análisis empírico de India, China y Pakistán implementando el método NARDL |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Aijaz-Syed, Aamir |
| dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv |
Aijaz-Syed, Aamir |
| dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Military spending Asymmetric economic growth Nardl Military keynesianism |
| topic |
Military spending Asymmetric economic growth Nardl Military keynesianism Gasto militar Crecimiento económico asimétrico Nardl Keynesianismo militar |
| dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv |
Gasto militar Crecimiento económico asimétrico Nardl Keynesianismo militar |
| description |
Este trabajo de investigación pretende comprobar cómo el gasto militar promueve el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial, como sugiere el postulado militar keynesiano. El método NARDL se emplea para lograr el objetivo anterior en los datos de panel de India, China y Pakistán que cubren el período 1990-2018. El estudio encuentra que el impacto positivo y negativo del gasto militar tiene un efecto positivo y negativo significativo en el crecimiento económico a largo plazo para China e India; sin embargo, en el corto plazo, solo los impactos positivos afectan el crecimiento económico. Por lo tanto, existe un efecto simétrico en el corto plazo y un impacto asimétrico en el largo plazo. Este resultado asimétrico respalda el trabajo del keynesianismo militar, que ayuda a los legisladores a diseñar políticas macroeconómicas adecuadas. |
| publishDate |
2020 |
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2020-01-01 |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-01-01 00:00:00 2023-01-23T16:15:55Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-01-01 00:00:00 2023-01-23T16:15:55Z |
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Artículo de revista |
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Journal article |
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2011-7663 |
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2248-6046 |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10983/29434 |
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Núm. 1 , Año 2021 |
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Revista Finanzas y Política Económica |
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Abu-Qarn, A. S., and S. Abu-Bader. (2003). Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel and Syria. Journal of Policy Modelling, 25 (6–7): 567–583. Alptekin, Aynur & Levine, Paul. (2012). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth Literature: A Meta-Analysis. European Journal of Political Economy, 28(4). Anoruo, E. (2011), Testing for linear and nonlinear causality between crude oil price changes and stock market returns. International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, Vol. 4 No. 3, pp. 75-92. Awaworyi, S. & S. L. Yew (2014). The Effect of Military Expenditure on Growth: An Empirical Synthesis. Monash Economics Working Papers, 25-14, Monash University, Department of Economics. Aye, G.C., Balcılar, M., Dunne, J.P., Gupta, R., Eyden, R.V. (2014). Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Structural Instability: A Case Study of South Africa. Defence and Peace Economics, 25(6), 619-633 Batchelor, P., P. Dunne, and D. Saal. (2000). Military Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa. Defence and Peace Economics, 11 (4): 553–571. Benoit, E., (1973). Defence and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books. Biswas, B. and R. Ram (1986). Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34:361–72. Bitzinger, R. A. (2003). Just the Facts, Ma’am: The Challenge of Analysing and Assessing Chinese Military Expenditures. The China Quarterly, 173: 164–175. Doi:10.2307/20058962. Cohen, J.S., Stevenson, R., Mintz, A., Ward, M.D., (1996). Defence expenditures and economic growth in Israel: the indirect link. Journal of Peace Research, 33, 341-352. Deger, S. (1986). Economic Development and Defence Expenditure, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35,179–96. Dunne, J., E. Nikolaidou, and D. Vougas, (2001). Defence Spending and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 12:5–26. Dunne, J.P. and N. Tian (2013). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Survey, Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 8,5–11. Dunne, J.P., & Tian, N. (2013). Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity. Availableat:http://saldru.com.uct.ac.za/bitstream/handle/11090/611/2013_95.pdf?Sequence=1 Dnne, JP and E. Skons (2011). The Changing Military Industrial Complex. Forthcoming 2011 in German in Wissenschraft & Frieden. Discussion Paper version in English at: http://ideas.repec.org/p/uwe/wpaper/1104.html Garcia, V. F., & Liu, L. (1999). Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development. Journal of Applied Economics, 2(1), 29-59. doi: 10.1080/15140326.1999.12040532 Granger, C. W., & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden cointegration. The University of California, Economics Working Paper (2002-02). Habibullah, M. S., S.-H. Law, & A.M. Dayang-Afizzah. (2008). Defence Spending and Economic Growth in Asian Economies: A Panel Error-correction Approach. MPRA paper number 12105, University Putra Malaysia, University Malaysia Sarawak. Hitch, C. J., and R. N. Mckean. (1965). Economics of Defence in the Nuclear Age. New York: Holiday House. Hou, Na (2010). Arms Race, Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in India. Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Economics, The University of Birmingham. Retrieved from http://etheses.bham.ac.uk/652/. JP Dunne & E Nikolaidou & R Smith, (2002). Military Spending, Investment and Economic Growth in Small Industrialising Economies. South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, 70(5), pages 789-790, June. Kentor, J., Kick, E. (2008). Bringing the Military back in. Journal of World-Systems Research, XIV (2), 142-172. Khalid, M. A., & Mustapha, A. B. (2014). Long-run relationships and causality tests between military expenditure and economic growth in India. The Economics and Finance Letters, 1(6), 49-58. Kollias, C., Nikolaos Mylonidis, and S. Z. Paleologou. (2007). A Panel Data Analysis of the Nexus between Defence Spending and Growth in the European Union Defence and Peace Economics 18 (1): 75–85. Lebovic, J., and A. Ishaq. (1987). Military Burden, Security Needs, and Economic Growth in the Middle East. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 31 (1): 106–138. Lee, C-C., Chen, S-T. (2007), Do Defence Expenditures Spur GDP? A Panel Analysis from OECD and NON‐OECD Countries. Defence and Peace Economics, 18(3), 265-280. Lim, D. (1983). Another Look at Growth and Defence in Less Developed Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 3, 377–384. Mahmood, A., M. Kinnwall and P. S. Thoursie. (2002). Cyclical and Causal Patterns of Inflation and GDP Growth. Department of Economics Paper, Stockholm University. Mallik, G. and A. Chowdhury. (2001). Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Four South American Countries. Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8, No.1, pp: 123-133. Mosikari, T., and K. Matlwa. (2014). An Analysis of Defence Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5 (20): 2769–2776. Narula, Rajneesh (2005). Knowledge Creation and Why It Matters for Development: The Role of TNCs. In Globalization of R&D and Developing Countries: Proceedings of an Expert Meeting (Geneva, 24-26 January 2005), pp. 43-60. Geneva: United Nations Publications. Pan, L., & Mishra, V. (2018). Stock market development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 68, 661-673. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.07.005 Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. Doi: 10.1002/jae.61 Pradhan, P. R. (2010). Defence Spending and Economic Growth in China, India, Nepal and Pakistan: Evidence from Cointegrated Panel Analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2 (4): 65–74. Qazi, W., Raza, S. A., Sharif, A. (2017). Higher education development and unemployment in Pakistan: Evidence from structural break testing. Global Business Review, 18(5), 1089–1100. Raju, M.H., Ahmed, Z (2019). Effect of military expenditure on economic growth: evidences from India Pakistan and China using cointegration and causality analysis. Asian j. Ger. Eur. stud. 4, 3. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40856-019-0040-6 Raza, S. A., Afshan, S. (2017). Determinants of exchange rate in Pakistan: Revisited with structural break testing. Global Business Review, 18(4), 825–848. Sezgin, S. (2001). An Empirical Analysis of Turkey’s Defence–Growth Relationships with a Multi‐Equation Model (1956–1994). Defence and Peace Economics, 12 (1): 69–86. Shahzad, S.J.H., Nor, S.M., Ferrer, R. and Hammoudeh, S. (2017). Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: US industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 60, pp. 211-230. Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. In R. C. Sickles & W. C. Horrace (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications (pp. 281-314). New York, NY: Springer New York. Holtom, P., Bromley, M., Wezeman, P.D. and Wezeman, S.T., (2013). Trends in international arms transfers, 2012. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Stockholms internationella fredsforsknings institut) (SIPRI). Ulah, A., Xinshun, Z., Kamal, M. A., & JiaJia, Z. (2020). Modelling the relationship between military spending and stock market development (a) symmetrically in China: An empirical analysis via the NARDL approach. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 124106. Wu, Yanrui. (2010). Innovation and Economic Growth in China. Nedlands, W.A.: University of Western Australia, Business School, Economics working paper No.10-10. Yakovlev, P., “Arms Trade, Military Spending, and Economic Growth. Defence and Peace Economics 18 (2007):317–17. Yang, A.J.F. Trumbull, W.N., Yang, C.W., Huang, B-N. (2011), On the Relationship between Military Expenditure, Threat and Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Approach, Defence and Peace Economics, 22(4), 449-457. |
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Aijaz-Syed, Aamira8f7be40-b02b-47b1-826d-21a67a45a85d2021-01-01 00:00:002023-01-23T16:15:55Z2021-01-01 00:00:002023-01-23T16:15:55Z2020-01-01Este trabajo de investigación pretende comprobar cómo el gasto militar promueve el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial, como sugiere el postulado militar keynesiano. El método NARDL se emplea para lograr el objetivo anterior en los datos de panel de India, China y Pakistán que cubren el período 1990-2018. El estudio encuentra que el impacto positivo y negativo del gasto militar tiene un efecto positivo y negativo significativo en el crecimiento económico a largo plazo para China e India; sin embargo, en el corto plazo, solo los impactos positivos afectan el crecimiento económico. Por lo tanto, existe un efecto simétrico en el corto plazo y un impacto asimétrico en el largo plazo. Este resultado asimétrico respalda el trabajo del keynesianismo militar, que ayuda a los legisladores a diseñar políticas macroeconómicas adecuadas.This research work aims to verify how military expenditure promotes economic growth and industrial productivity, as suggested by the Military Keynesianism postulate. The NARDL method is employed to achieve the above objective on the panel data of India, China, and Pakistan, covering the period between 1990 and 2018. The study finds that the positive and negative impact of military expenditure has a significant positive and negative effect on economic growth in the long run for China and India; however, in the short-run, only positive impact favors economic growth. Thus, there is a symmetric effect in the short-run and an asymmetric impact in the long-run. This asymmetric result supports the work of Military Keynesianism, helping policymakers in devising appropriate macro-economic policies.text/htmlapplication/pdftext/xml10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v13.n1.2021.42011-76632248-6046https://hdl.handle.net/10983/29434https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v13.n1.2021.4engUniversidad Católica de Colombiahttps://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/3317/3811https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/3317/3668https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/3317/3804Núm. 1 , Año 20219717713Revista Finanzas y Política EconómicaAbu-Qarn, A. S., and S. Abu-Bader. (2003). Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel and Syria. Journal of Policy Modelling, 25 (6–7): 567–583.Alptekin, Aynur & Levine, Paul. (2012). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth Literature: A Meta-Analysis. European Journal of Political Economy, 28(4).Anoruo, E. (2011), Testing for linear and nonlinear causality between crude oil price changes and stock market returns. International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, Vol. 4 No. 3, pp. 75-92.Awaworyi, S. & S. L. Yew (2014). The Effect of Military Expenditure on Growth: An Empirical Synthesis. Monash Economics Working Papers, 25-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.Aye, G.C., Balcılar, M., Dunne, J.P., Gupta, R., Eyden, R.V. (2014). Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Structural Instability: A Case Study of South Africa. Defence and Peace Economics, 25(6), 619-633Batchelor, P., P. Dunne, and D. Saal. (2000). Military Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa. Defence and Peace Economics, 11 (4): 553–571.Benoit, E., (1973). Defence and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.Biswas, B. and R. Ram (1986). Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34:361–72.Bitzinger, R. A. (2003). Just the Facts, Ma’am: The Challenge of Analysing and Assessing Chinese Military Expenditures. The China Quarterly, 173: 164–175. Doi:10.2307/20058962.Cohen, J.S., Stevenson, R., Mintz, A., Ward, M.D., (1996). Defence expenditures and economic growth in Israel: the indirect link. Journal of Peace Research, 33, 341-352.Deger, S. (1986). Economic Development and Defence Expenditure, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35,179–96.Dunne, J., E. Nikolaidou, and D. Vougas, (2001). Defence Spending and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 12:5–26.Dunne, J.P. and N. Tian (2013). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Survey, Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 8,5–11.Dunne, J.P., & Tian, N. (2013). Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity. Availableat:http://saldru.com.uct.ac.za/bitstream/handle/11090/611/2013_95.pdf?Sequence=1Dnne, JP and E. Skons (2011). The Changing Military Industrial Complex. Forthcoming 2011 in German in Wissenschraft & Frieden. Discussion Paper version in English at: http://ideas.repec.org/p/uwe/wpaper/1104.htmlGarcia, V. F., & Liu, L. (1999). Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development. Journal of Applied Economics, 2(1), 29-59. doi: 10.1080/15140326.1999.12040532Granger, C. W., & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden cointegration. The University of California, Economics Working Paper (2002-02).Habibullah, M. S., S.-H. Law, & A.M. Dayang-Afizzah. (2008). Defence Spending and Economic Growth in Asian Economies: A Panel Error-correction Approach. MPRA paper number 12105, University Putra Malaysia, University Malaysia Sarawak.Hitch, C. J., and R. N. Mckean. (1965). Economics of Defence in the Nuclear Age. New York: Holiday House.Hou, Na (2010). Arms Race, Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in India. Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Economics, The University of Birmingham. Retrieved from http://etheses.bham.ac.uk/652/.JP Dunne & E Nikolaidou & R Smith, (2002). Military Spending, Investment and Economic Growth in Small Industrialising Economies. South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, 70(5), pages 789-790, June.Kentor, J., Kick, E. (2008). Bringing the Military back in. Journal of World-Systems Research, XIV (2), 142-172.Khalid, M. A., & Mustapha, A. B. (2014). Long-run relationships and causality tests between military expenditure and economic growth in India. The Economics and Finance Letters, 1(6), 49-58.Kollias, C., Nikolaos Mylonidis, and S. Z. Paleologou. (2007). A Panel Data Analysis of the Nexus between Defence Spending and Growth in the European Union Defence and Peace Economics 18 (1): 75–85.Lebovic, J., and A. Ishaq. (1987). Military Burden, Security Needs, and Economic Growth in the Middle East. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 31 (1): 106–138.Lee, C-C., Chen, S-T. (2007), Do Defence Expenditures Spur GDP? A Panel Analysis from OECD and NON‐OECD Countries. Defence and Peace Economics, 18(3), 265-280.Lim, D. (1983). Another Look at Growth and Defence in Less Developed Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 3, 377–384.Mahmood, A., M. Kinnwall and P. S. Thoursie. (2002). Cyclical and Causal Patterns of Inflation and GDP Growth. Department of Economics Paper, Stockholm University.Mallik, G. and A. Chowdhury. (2001). Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Four South American Countries. Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8, No.1, pp: 123-133.Mosikari, T., and K. Matlwa. (2014). An Analysis of Defence Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5 (20): 2769–2776.Narula, Rajneesh (2005). Knowledge Creation and Why It Matters for Development: The Role of TNCs. In Globalization of R&D and Developing Countries: Proceedings of an Expert Meeting (Geneva, 24-26 January 2005), pp. 43-60. Geneva: United Nations Publications.Pan, L., & Mishra, V. (2018). Stock market development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 68, 661-673. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.07.005Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. Doi: 10.1002/jae.61Pradhan, P. R. (2010). Defence Spending and Economic Growth in China, India, Nepal and Pakistan: Evidence from Cointegrated Panel Analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2 (4): 65–74.Qazi, W., Raza, S. A., Sharif, A. (2017). Higher education development and unemployment in Pakistan: Evidence from structural break testing. Global Business Review, 18(5), 1089–1100.Raju, M.H., Ahmed, Z (2019). Effect of military expenditure on economic growth: evidences from India Pakistan and China using cointegration and causality analysis. Asian j. Ger. Eur. stud. 4, 3. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40856-019-0040-6Raza, S. A., Afshan, S. (2017). Determinants of exchange rate in Pakistan: Revisited with structural break testing. Global Business Review, 18(4), 825–848.Sezgin, S. (2001). An Empirical Analysis of Turkey’s Defence–Growth Relationships with a Multi‐Equation Model (1956–1994). Defence and Peace Economics, 12 (1): 69–86.Shahzad, S.J.H., Nor, S.M., Ferrer, R. and Hammoudeh, S. (2017). Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: US industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 60, pp. 211-230.Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. In R. C. Sickles & W. C. 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(2011), On the Relationship between Military Expenditure, Threat and Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Approach, Defence and Peace Economics, 22(4), 449-457.Aamir Syed - 2021info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/3317Military spendingAsymmetric economic growthNardlMilitary keynesianismGasto militarCrecimiento económico asimétricoNardlKeynesianismo militarRelación asimétrica entre el gasto militar, el crecimiento económico y la productividad industrial: un análisis empírico de India, China y Pakistán implementando el método NARDLThe Asymmetric Relationship Between Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Industrial Productivity: An Empirical Analysis of India, China and Pakistan Via the NARDL ApproachArtículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleJournal articlehttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARTinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPublicationOREORE.xmltext/xml2756https://repository.ucatolica.edu.co/bitstreams/db723ed3-c30b-4bd9-90ca-8a8f3dd7e18c/download8cab9ffda57619a9944221856576d7f5MD5110983/29434oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/294342023-03-24 16:36:46.735https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Aamir Syed - 2021https://repository.ucatolica.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad Católica de Colombia - RIUCaCbdigital@metabiblioteca.com |