Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.

La previsión del mercado de valores es un proceso importante y desafiante que influye en las decisiones de inversión. Este artículo presenta un diseño experimental que tiene como objetivo medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado...

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Autores:
Peña, Victor Alberto
Gómez-Mejía, Alina
Tipo de recurso:
Article of investigation
Fecha de publicación:
2019
Institución:
Universidad Católica de Colombia
Repositorio:
RIUCaC - Repositorio U. Católica
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/29420
Acceso en línea:
https://hdl.handle.net/10983/29420
https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10
Palabra clave:
Financial forecast
Optimism bias
Anchor and adjustment heuristic
Judgment
Behavioral finance
Finanzas conductuales
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Juicio
Pronóstico financiero
Sesgo de optimismo
Finanças comportamentais
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Julgamento
Prognóstico financeiro
Viés de otimismo
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openAccess
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Victor Alberto Peña, Alina Gómez Mejía - 2019
id UCATOLICA2_281bf52a3bf06708ed474eef3a7eede0
oai_identifier_str oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/29420
network_acronym_str UCATOLICA2
network_name_str RIUCaC - Repositorio U. Católica
repository_id_str
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv Effect of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in stock market forecasts.
title Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
spellingShingle Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
Financial forecast
Optimism bias
Anchor and adjustment heuristic
Judgment
Behavioral finance
Finanzas conductuales
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Juicio
Pronóstico financiero
Sesgo de optimismo
Finanças comportamentais
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Julgamento
Prognóstico financeiro
Viés de otimismo
title_short Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_full Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_fullStr Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_full_unstemmed Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_sort Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Peña, Victor Alberto
Gómez-Mejía, Alina
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv Peña, Victor Alberto
Gómez-Mejía, Alina
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Financial forecast
Optimism bias
Anchor and adjustment heuristic
Judgment
Behavioral finance
topic Financial forecast
Optimism bias
Anchor and adjustment heuristic
Judgment
Behavioral finance
Finanzas conductuales
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Juicio
Pronóstico financiero
Sesgo de optimismo
Finanças comportamentais
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Julgamento
Prognóstico financeiro
Viés de otimismo
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv Finanzas conductuales
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Juicio
Pronóstico financiero
Sesgo de optimismo
Finanças comportamentais
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Julgamento
Prognóstico financeiro
Viés de otimismo
description La previsión del mercado de valores es un proceso importante y desafiante que influye en las decisiones de inversión. Este artículo presenta un diseño experimental que tiene como objetivo medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores. El estudio se realizó utilizando información del índice financiero S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select. Este fue presentado a 670 estudiantes de las ciudades de Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia) y Lima (Perú). Los datos fueron recopilados y presentados a través de un instrumento que pedía a los participantes que hicieran un juicio de pronóstico del dicho índice financiero con base en los gráficos presentados, representando un año, un mes, una semana y el último valor de cierre del índice. De esta manera, era posible medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste para establecer si la presencia de un valor inicial afectaba el pronóstico financiero. Además, el estudio buscó determinar si el juicio emitido estaba sesgado hacia una posición optimista o pesimista, demostrando así la presencia de un error o sesgo de expectativa, conocido como sesgo de optimismo. Los resultados se analizaron usando el método de mínimos cuadrados, y el panel de datos confirmó que la heurística de anclaje y ajuste influye en el pronóstico del índice financiero utilizado en el estudio. Del mismo modo, se infirió la presencia de sesgo de optimismo en el proceso cognitivo del pronóstico financiero.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2019-07-01 00:00:00
2023-01-23T16:15:43Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2019-07-01 00:00:00
2023-01-23T16:15:43Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2019-07-01
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo de revista
dc.type.coar.eng.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
dc.type.coarversion.eng.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.content.eng.fl_str_mv Text
dc.type.driver.eng.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.local.eng.fl_str_mv Journal article
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dc.type.version.eng.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10
dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv 2011-7663
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 2248-6046
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10983/29420
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dc.rights.eng.fl_str_mv Victor Alberto Peña, Alina Gómez Mejía - 2019
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spelling Peña, Victor Alberto80b44e0d-12e4-40e7-b45e-e1f7caa7b7a6300Gómez-Mejía, Alinaf5cd4eb7-0a6d-4c28-b575-42d8414577412019-07-01 00:00:002023-01-23T16:15:43Z2019-07-01 00:00:002023-01-23T16:15:43Z2019-07-01La previsión del mercado de valores es un proceso importante y desafiante que influye en las decisiones de inversión. Este artículo presenta un diseño experimental que tiene como objetivo medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores. El estudio se realizó utilizando información del índice financiero S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select. Este fue presentado a 670 estudiantes de las ciudades de Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia) y Lima (Perú). Los datos fueron recopilados y presentados a través de un instrumento que pedía a los participantes que hicieran un juicio de pronóstico del dicho índice financiero con base en los gráficos presentados, representando un año, un mes, una semana y el último valor de cierre del índice. De esta manera, era posible medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste para establecer si la presencia de un valor inicial afectaba el pronóstico financiero. Además, el estudio buscó determinar si el juicio emitido estaba sesgado hacia una posición optimista o pesimista, demostrando así la presencia de un error o sesgo de expectativa, conocido como sesgo de optimismo. Los resultados se analizaron usando el método de mínimos cuadrados, y el panel de datos confirmó que la heurística de anclaje y ajuste influye en el pronóstico del índice financiero utilizado en el estudio. Del mismo modo, se infirió la presencia de sesgo de optimismo en el proceso cognitivo del pronóstico financiero.Stock market forecasting is an important and challenging process that influences investment decisions. This paper presents an experimental design that aims to measure the influence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in these forecasts. The study was conducted using information from the S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select financial index; this was presented to 670 students from the cities of Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia), and Lima (Peru). Data was collected and presented through an instrument that asked participants to make a forecast judgment of the said financial index, based on the presented graphics, representing a year, a month, a week, and the last closing value of the index. Thus, it was possible to measure the influence of the anchor and adjustment heuristic in order to establish whether the presence of an initial value affected the financial forecast. Similarly, the study sought to determine whether the judgment issued was biased toward an optimistic or pessimistic position, thereby proving the presence of an error or expectation bias, known as optimism bias. The results were analyzed using the least squares method, and the data panel confirmed that the anchoring and adjustment heuristic influences the forecast of the financial index used in the study. 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Journal of the American Statistical Association, 29(185), 11-24. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1934.10502683Victor Alberto Peña, Alina Gómez Mejía - 2019info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/2920Financial forecastOptimism biasAnchor and adjustment heuristicJudgmentBehavioral financeFinanzas conductualesHeurística de anclaje y ajusteJuicioPronóstico financieroSesgo de optimismoFinanças comportamentaisHeurística da ancoragem e do ajustamentoJulgamentoPrognóstico financeiroViés de otimismoEfecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.Effect of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in stock market forecasts.Artículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleJournal articlehttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARTinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPublicationOREORE.xmltext/xml2667https://repository.ucatolica.edu.co/bitstreams/bf11ddd9-8d2b-4e5d-8c87-1e417b9ff497/download912bb8af050c4f462da76ec32780a83cMD5110983/29420oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/294202023-03-24 17:52:22.156https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Victor Alberto Peña, Alina Gómez Mejía - 2019https://repository.ucatolica.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad Católica de Colombia - RIUCaCbdigital@metabiblioteca.com

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