Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.

La previsión del mercado de valores es un proceso importante y desafiante que influye en las decisiones de inversión. Este artículo presenta un diseño experimental que tiene como objetivo medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado...

Full description

Autores:
Peña, Victor Alberto
Gómez-Mejía, Alina
Tipo de recurso:
Article of investigation
Fecha de publicación:
2019
Institución:
Universidad Católica de Colombia
Repositorio:
RIUCaC - Repositorio U. Católica
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/29420
Acceso en línea:
https://hdl.handle.net/10983/29420
https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10
Palabra clave:
Financial forecast
Optimism bias
Anchor and adjustment heuristic
Judgment
Behavioral finance
Finanzas conductuales
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Juicio
Pronóstico financiero
Sesgo de optimismo
Finanças comportamentais
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Julgamento
Prognóstico financeiro
Viés de otimismo
Rights
openAccess
License
Victor Alberto Peña, Alina Gómez Mejía - 2019
id UCATOLICA2_281bf52a3bf06708ed474eef3a7eede0
oai_identifier_str oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/29420
network_acronym_str UCATOLICA2
network_name_str RIUCaC - Repositorio U. Católica
repository_id_str
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
dc.title.translated.eng.fl_str_mv Effect of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in stock market forecasts.
title Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
spellingShingle Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
Financial forecast
Optimism bias
Anchor and adjustment heuristic
Judgment
Behavioral finance
Finanzas conductuales
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Juicio
Pronóstico financiero
Sesgo de optimismo
Finanças comportamentais
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Julgamento
Prognóstico financeiro
Viés de otimismo
title_short Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_full Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_fullStr Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_full_unstemmed Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_sort Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Peña, Victor Alberto
Gómez-Mejía, Alina
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv Peña, Victor Alberto
Gómez-Mejía, Alina
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Financial forecast
Optimism bias
Anchor and adjustment heuristic
Judgment
Behavioral finance
topic Financial forecast
Optimism bias
Anchor and adjustment heuristic
Judgment
Behavioral finance
Finanzas conductuales
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Juicio
Pronóstico financiero
Sesgo de optimismo
Finanças comportamentais
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Julgamento
Prognóstico financeiro
Viés de otimismo
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv Finanzas conductuales
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Juicio
Pronóstico financiero
Sesgo de optimismo
Finanças comportamentais
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Julgamento
Prognóstico financeiro
Viés de otimismo
description La previsión del mercado de valores es un proceso importante y desafiante que influye en las decisiones de inversión. Este artículo presenta un diseño experimental que tiene como objetivo medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores. El estudio se realizó utilizando información del índice financiero S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select. Este fue presentado a 670 estudiantes de las ciudades de Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia) y Lima (Perú). Los datos fueron recopilados y presentados a través de un instrumento que pedía a los participantes que hicieran un juicio de pronóstico del dicho índice financiero con base en los gráficos presentados, representando un año, un mes, una semana y el último valor de cierre del índice. De esta manera, era posible medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste para establecer si la presencia de un valor inicial afectaba el pronóstico financiero. Además, el estudio buscó determinar si el juicio emitido estaba sesgado hacia una posición optimista o pesimista, demostrando así la presencia de un error o sesgo de expectativa, conocido como sesgo de optimismo. Los resultados se analizaron usando el método de mínimos cuadrados, y el panel de datos confirmó que la heurística de anclaje y ajuste influye en el pronóstico del índice financiero utilizado en el estudio. Del mismo modo, se infirió la presencia de sesgo de optimismo en el proceso cognitivo del pronóstico financiero.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2019-07-01 00:00:00
2023-01-23T16:15:43Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2019-07-01 00:00:00
2023-01-23T16:15:43Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2019-07-01
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo de revista
dc.type.coar.eng.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
dc.type.coarversion.eng.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.content.eng.fl_str_mv Text
dc.type.driver.eng.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.local.eng.fl_str_mv Journal article
dc.type.redcol.eng.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ART
dc.type.version.eng.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10
dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv 2011-7663
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 2248-6046
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10983/29420
dc.identifier.url.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10
identifier_str_mv 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10
2011-7663
2248-6046
url https://hdl.handle.net/10983/29420
https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10
dc.language.iso.eng.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.bitstream.none.fl_str_mv https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/2920/3078
https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/2920/3111
https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/2920/3489
dc.relation.citationedition.spa.fl_str_mv Núm. 2 , Año 2019
dc.relation.citationendpage.none.fl_str_mv 409
dc.relation.citationissue.spa.fl_str_mv 2
dc.relation.citationstartpage.none.fl_str_mv 389
dc.relation.citationvolume.spa.fl_str_mv 11
dc.relation.ispartofjournal.spa.fl_str_mv Revista Finanzas y Política Económica
dc.relation.references.eng.fl_str_mv Aguiar, F. (2004). Teoría de la decisión e incertidumbre: modelos normativos y descriptivos. Empiria: Revista de Metodología de Ciencias Sociales, (8), 139-160. https://doi.org//10.5944/empiria.8.2004.982
Amir, E., & Ganzach, Y. (1998). Overreaction and underreaction in analysts' forecasts. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 37(3), 333-347. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1024.5590&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Ariely, D., Loewenstein, G., & Prelec, D. (2003). «Coherent Arbitrariness*: Stable Demand Curves Without Stable Preferences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 73-106. https://doi.org/10.1162/00335530360535153
Armor, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (2002). When predictions fail: The dilemma of unrealistic optimism. In Gilovich, T, Griffin, D. W., & Kahneman, D. (eds.). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment. (pp. 334-347). New York: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org//10.1017/CBO9780511808098.021
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, JJ6(1), 261-292. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.139415
Barberis, N., & Thaler, R. (2003). A survey of behavioral finance. Handbook of the Economic of Finance, 1052-1121. http://houdekpetr.cz/!data/public_html/papers/economics_psychology/Barberis%20Thaler%202003.pdf
Ben-David, I., & Hirshleifer, D. (2012). Are investors really reluctant to realize their losses? Trading responses to past returns and the disposition effect. Review of Financial Studies. 25(8), 2485-2532. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhs077
Blankenship, K. L., Wegener, D. T, Petty, R. E., Detweiler-Bedell, B., & Macy, C. L. (2008). Elaboration and consequences of anchored estimates: An attitudinal perspective on numerical anchoring. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 44(6), 1465-1476. https://doi.org/10.10Wj.jesp.2008.07.005
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the «planning fallacy»: Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366-381. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.366
Cadet, B., & Chasseigne, G. (2009). Psychologie du jugement et de la decision: Des modèles aux applications. (A. Editore, Ed.) (1st ed). Paris: De Boeck Universite.
Campbell, S. D., & Sharpe, S. A. (2009). Anchoring bias in consensus forecasts and its effect on market prices. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 44(2), 369-390. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109009090127
Caputo, A. (2014). Relevant information, personality traits and anchoring effect. International Journal of Management and Decision Making, 13(1), 62-76. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijmdm.2014.058470
Cen, L., Hilary, G., & Wei, K. C. J. (2013). The role of anchoring bias in the equity market: Evidence from analysts' earnings forecasts and stock returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 48(1), 47-76. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002210901200060
Chambers, J. R., & Windschitl, P. D. (2004). Biases in Social Comparative Judgments: The Role of Nonmotivated Factors in Above-Average and Comparative-Optimism Effects. Psychological Bulletin, 130(5), 813-838. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.130.5.813
Chang, E. C., Lin, T C., Luo, Y., & Ren, J. (2019). Ex-day returns of stock distributions: An anchoring explanation. Management Science. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2843
Chapman, G. B., & Johnson, E. J. (1999). Anchoring, activation, and the construction of values. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79(2), 115-153. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1999.2841
Chapman, G. B., & Johnson, E. J. (2002). Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value. In Gilovich, T., Griffin, D. W., & Kahneman, D. (eds.). Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (pp. 120-138). New York: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808098.008
Cowles, A., & Jones, H. E. (1937). Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action. Econometrica, 5(3), 280-294. https://doi.org/10.2307/1905515
Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D., & Teoh, S. H. (2002). Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implication. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(1), 139-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(01)0001-5
De Bondt, W. F. M., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05004.x
Duclos, R. (2014). The psychology of investment "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcps.2014.11.005">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcps.2014.11.005
Ductor, L., & Leiva-Leon, D. (2016). Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence. Journal of International Economics, 102, 110-127. https://doi.org/10.1016Zj.jinteco.2016.07.003
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1981). Behavioral Decision Theory: Processed ofJudgment and Choice. Annual Review of Psychology, 32, 53-88. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ps.32.020181.000413
Englich, B., & Soder, K. (2009). Moody experts—How mood and expertise influence judgmental anchoring. Judgment and Decision Making, 4(1), 41-50. https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2009-02933-004
Epley, N., & Gilovich, T (2001). Putting adjustment back in the anchoring and adjustment heuristic: Differential Processing of Self-Generated and Experimenter-Provided Anchors. Psychological Science, 12(5), 391-396. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9280.00372
Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2006). The Anchoring-and- Adjustment Heuristic Why the Adjustments. Psychological Science, 17(4), 311-318. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01704.x
Fama, E. (1997). Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns, and Behavioral Finance. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 283-306. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0187/0cadeddf6c98ece3b878ce168c86636a5c4b.pdf
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
Festinger, L. (1957). A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Stanford University Press.
Fisher, K. L., & Statman, M. (2000). Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 27(1), 72-81. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2000.319785
Forbes, W., Hudson, R., Skerratt, L., & Soufian, M. (2015). Which heuristics can aid financial-decision-making? International Review of Financial Analysis, 42, 199-210.
Galinsky, A. D., & Mussweiler, T. (2001). First offers as anchors: The role of perspective-taking and negotiator focus. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 81(4), 657-669. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.81.4.657
George, T J., & Hwang, C. Y. (2004). The 52-week high and momentum investing. Journal of Finance, 59(5), 2145-2176. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00695.x
Gigerenzer, G., & Gaissmaier, W. (2011). Heuristic decision making. Annual Review of Psychology, 62 (1), 451-482. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-120709-145346
Giordani, P, & Sõderlind, P (2006). Is there evidence of pessimism and doubt in subjective distributions? Implications for the equity premium puzzle. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 30(6), 1027-1043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2005.05.001
Griffin, D., & Tversky, A. (1992). The weighing of evidence and the determinats of confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 24, 411-435. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(92)90013-R
Hastie, R., & Dawes, R. M. (2010). Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making. SAGE Publications.
Helweg-Larsen, M., & Shepperd, J. A. (2001). Do Moderators of the Optimistic Bias Affect Personal or Target Risk Estimates? A Review of the Literature. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 5(1), 74-95. https://doi.org/10.1207/S15327957PSPR0501_5
Hilary, G., & Hsu, C. (2011). Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 51 (3), 300-313. https://doi.org/10.10Wj.jacceco.2011.01.002
Hirshleifer, D. (2015). Behavioral Finance. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 7(1), 133-159. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-092214-043752
Hysenbelli, D., Rubaltelli, E., & Rumiati, R. (2013). Others' opinions count, but not all of them: anchoring to ingroup versus outgroup members' behavior in charitable giving. Judgment and Decision Making, 8(6), 678-690. http://journal.sjdm.org/12/121219/jdm121219.pdf
Jefferson, A., Bortolotti, L., & Kuzmanovic, B. (2017). What is unrealistic optimism? Consciousness and Cognition, 50, 3-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/jxoncog.2016.10.005
Kahneman, D. (2003). Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics. American Economic Review, 93(5), 1449-1475. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803322655392
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L., & Thaler, R. H. (1991). Anomalies: The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 193-206. http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/jep.5.1.193.
Kahneman, D., & Riepe, M. W. (1998). Aspects of Investor Psychology. The Journal of Porfolio Management, 24(4), 52-65. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1998.409643
Kahneman, D., Slovic, IP, & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80(4), 237-251. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0034747
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185
Kaustia, M., Alho, E., & Puttonen, V. (2008). How Much Does Expertise Reduce Behavioral Biases? The Case of Anchoring Effects in Stock Return Estimates. Financial Management, 37(3), 391-412. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-053X.2008.00018.x
Kendall, M. G., & Hill, A. B. (1953). The analysis of economic time-series-Part I: Prices. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 116(1), 11. https://doi.org/10.2307/2980947
Kinari, Y. (2016). Properties of expectation biases: Optimism and overconfidence. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 10(1), 32-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2016.02.003
Krch, D. (2011). Cognitive Processing. In J. S. Kreutzer, J. DeLuca, & B. Caplan (eds.). Encyclopedia of Clinical Neuropsychology. (p. 627). New York, NY: Springer New York.
Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(2), 311-328. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.32.2.311
Levin, I. P, Schneider, S. L., & Gaeth, G. J. (1998). All Frames Are Not Created Equal: A Typology and Critical Analysis of Framing Effects. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 76(2), 149-188. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1998.2804
Liao, L.-C., Chou, R. Y., & Chiu, B. (2013). Anchoring effect on foreign institutional investors' momentum trading https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2013.07.001
Locke, J. (1796). An Essay Concerning Human Understanding. The Philosophical Review. 3(5), 601-605. https://openpublishing.psu.edu/locke/bib/ch0e.html
Lovallo, D., & Kahneman, D. (2003). Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives' Decisions. Harvard Business Review. 81 (7), 56-63, 117. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12858711
Lucas, R. E. J. (1978). Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy. Econometrica, 46(6), 1429-1445. http://www.its.caltech.edu/~pbs/expfinance/Readings/Lucas1978.pdf
Lucey, M. E., & O'Connor, F. A. (2016). Mind the gap: Psychological barriers in gold and silver prices. Finance Research Letters, 17, 135-140. https://doi.org/10.1016/jfrl.2016.03.009
March, J. G. (1978). Bounded Rationality, Ambiguity, and the Engineering of Choice. The Bell Journal of Economics, 9(2), 587. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3003600
Marsden, A., Veeraraghavan, M., & Ye, M. (2008). Heuristics of Representativeness, Anchoring and Adjustment, and Leniency: Impact on Earnings' Forecasts by Australian Analysts. Quarterly Journal of Finance & Accounting, 47(2), 83-102. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.996514
McElroy, T., & Dowd, K. (2007). Susceptibility to anchoring effects: How openness-to-experience influences responses to anchoring cues. Judgment and Decision Making, 2(1), 48-53. http://journal.sjdm.org/jdm06143.pdf
Mintzberg, H., Raisinghani, D., & Theoret, A. (1976). The Structure of «Unstructured» Decision Processes. Administrative Science Quarterly, 21 (2), 246. https://doi.org/10.2307/2392045
Montier, J. (2013). Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons.
Mullainathan, S., & Thaler, R. (2000). Behavioral Economics. the National Bureau of Economic Research (Vol. 3). Cambridge, MA. https://doi.org/10.3386/w7948
Mussweiler, T, Strack, F., & Pfeiffer, T (2000). Overcoming the Inevitable Anchoring Effect: Considering the Opposite Compensates for Selective Accessibility. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 26(9), 1142-1150. https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672002611010
Newell, B. R., & Brõder, A. (2008). Cognitive processes, models and metaphors in decision research. Judgment and Decision Making, 3 (3), 195-204. http://journal.sjdm.org/bn1.pdf
Northcraft, G. B., & Neale, M. A. (1987). Experts, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring-and-adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39(1), 84-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(87)90046-X
Odean, T (1998). Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? The Journal of Finance, 53(5), 1775-1798. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00072
Pachur, T, & Brõder, A. (2013). Judgment: a cognitive processing perspective. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science, 4(6), 665-681. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcs.1259
Plous, S. (1989). Thinking the Unthinkable: The Effects of Anchoring on Likelihood Estimates of Nuclear War. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 19(1), 67-91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.1989.tb01221.x
Pompian, M. M. (2012). Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management: How to Build Optimal Portfolios That Account for Investor Biases (2.a ed.). Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons.
Puri, M., & Robinson, D. (2007). Optimism and economic choice. Journal of Financial Economics, 86(1), 71-99. https://doi.org/10.10Wj.jfineco.2006.09.003
Rau, R. (2011). Market Inefficiency. In Baker, H. K., & Nofsinger, J. R. (eds.). Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets (pp. 331-349). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.
Ricciardi, V. (2008). The Psychology of Risk: The Behavioral Finance Perspective. In Fabozzi, F. J. (ed.). The Handbook of Finance. Vol. 2. Investment Management and Financial Management. (pp. 85-111). London: John Wiley & Sons.
Ricciardi, V., & Simon, H. K. (2000). What is Behavioral Finance? Business, Education & Technology Journal, 2(2), 1-9. https://ssrn.com/abstract=256754
Ritter, J. R. (2003). Behavioral finance. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 11 (4), 429-437. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-538X(03)00048-9
S&P Global. (2019). S&P MILA Indices Methodology. https://us.spindices.com/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-mila-indices.pdf?force_download=true
Samuelson, W., & Zeckhauser, R. (1988). Status quo bias in decision making. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1 (1), 7-59. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00055564
Schwert, G. W. (2003). Anomalies and Market Efficiency. Handbook of the Economics of Finance, 1, 939-974. http://schwert.ssb.rochester.edu/hbfech15.pdf
Sharot, T (2011). The optimism bias. Current Biology, 21(23), R941-R945. https://doi.org/10.10Wj.cub.2011.10.030
Sharot, T, Riccardi, A. M., Raio, C. M., & Phelps, E. A. (2007). Neural mechanisms mediating optimism bias. Nature, 450(November), 102-105. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17960136
Shefrin, H., & Statman, M. (2000). Behavioral Portfolio Theory. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 35(2), 127. https://doi.org/10.2307/2676187
Shepperd, J. A., Carroll, P, Grace, J., & Terry, M. (2002). Exploring the Causes of Comparative Optimism. Psychologica Belgica, 42, 65-98. https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2002-06881-007
Shiller, R. J. (2003). From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance The 1980s and Excess Volatility. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 83-104. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533003321164967
Shin, H., & Park, S. (2018). Do foreign investors mitigate anchoring bias in stock market? Evidence based on post-earnings announcement drift. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 48 (December 2016), 224-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2018.02.008
Simon, H. A. (1955). A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(1), 99. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884852
Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of man; social and rational. Operations Research (Vol. 5). Oxford, England: Wiley.
Simon, H. A. (1972). Theories of Bounded Rationality. In Decision and Organization: A volume in honor of Jacob Marschak (pp. 161-176). North-Holland Publishing Company.
Slovic, P, & Lichtenstein, S. (1971). Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 6(6), 649-744. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(71)90033-X
Slovic, Paul. (1972). Psychological Study of Human Judgment: Implications for Investment Decision Making. Journal of Finance, 27(4), 779-799. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1972.tb01311.x
Stanêk, R. (2017). Home bias in sport betting : Evidence from Czech betting market. Judgment and Decision Making, 12(2), 168-172. http://journal.sjdm.org/16/16824/jdm16824.html7
Thaler, R. (1980). Toward a positive theory of consumer choice. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 1 (1), 39-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(80)90051-7
Thaler, R., & Sunstein, C. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness (revised). Penguin UK.
Thompson, S. C., Armstrong, W., & Thomas, C. (1998). Illusions of Control, Underestimations, and Accuracy: A Control Heuristic Explanation. Psychological Bulletin, 123(2), 143-161. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.123.2.143
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211 (4481), 453-458. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.7455683
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty. Journal of Risk & Uncertainty, 5(4), 297-323. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00122574
Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton University Press.
Wansink, B., Kent, R. J., & Hoch, S. J. (1998). An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Purchase Quantity Decisions. Journal of Marketing Research, 35(1), 71. https://doi.org/10.2307/3151931
Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), 806-820. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806
Westerhoff, F. (2003). Anchoring and Psychological Barriers in Foreign Exchange Markets. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 4(2), 65-70. https://doi.org/10.1207/S15427579JPFM0402_03
Wilke, A., & Mata, R. (2012). Cognitive Bias. In Encyclopedia of human behavior (pp. 531-535). London: Academic Press.
Working, H. (1934). A Random-Difference Series for Use in the Analysis of Time Series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 29(185), 11-24. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1934.10502683
dc.rights.eng.fl_str_mv Victor Alberto Peña, Alina Gómez Mejía - 2019
dc.rights.accessrights.eng.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.coar.eng.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.uri.eng.fl_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
rights_invalid_str_mv Victor Alberto Peña, Alina Gómez Mejía - 2019
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.mimetype.eng.fl_str_mv application/pdf
text/html
text/xml
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv Universidad Católica de Colombia
dc.source.eng.fl_str_mv https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/2920
institution Universidad Católica de Colombia
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://repository.ucatolica.edu.co/bitstreams/bf11ddd9-8d2b-4e5d-8c87-1e417b9ff497/download
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv 912bb8af050c4f462da76ec32780a83c
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositorio Institucional Universidad Católica de Colombia - RIUCaC
repository.mail.fl_str_mv bdigital@metabiblioteca.com
_version_ 1808402692598398976
spelling Peña, Victor Alberto80b44e0d-12e4-40e7-b45e-e1f7caa7b7a6300Gómez-Mejía, Alinaf5cd4eb7-0a6d-4c28-b575-42d8414577412019-07-01 00:00:002023-01-23T16:15:43Z2019-07-01 00:00:002023-01-23T16:15:43Z2019-07-01La previsión del mercado de valores es un proceso importante y desafiante que influye en las decisiones de inversión. Este artículo presenta un diseño experimental que tiene como objetivo medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores. El estudio se realizó utilizando información del índice financiero S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select. Este fue presentado a 670 estudiantes de las ciudades de Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia) y Lima (Perú). Los datos fueron recopilados y presentados a través de un instrumento que pedía a los participantes que hicieran un juicio de pronóstico del dicho índice financiero con base en los gráficos presentados, representando un año, un mes, una semana y el último valor de cierre del índice. De esta manera, era posible medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste para establecer si la presencia de un valor inicial afectaba el pronóstico financiero. Además, el estudio buscó determinar si el juicio emitido estaba sesgado hacia una posición optimista o pesimista, demostrando así la presencia de un error o sesgo de expectativa, conocido como sesgo de optimismo. Los resultados se analizaron usando el método de mínimos cuadrados, y el panel de datos confirmó que la heurística de anclaje y ajuste influye en el pronóstico del índice financiero utilizado en el estudio. Del mismo modo, se infirió la presencia de sesgo de optimismo en el proceso cognitivo del pronóstico financiero.Stock market forecasting is an important and challenging process that influences investment decisions. This paper presents an experimental design that aims to measure the influence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in these forecasts. The study was conducted using information from the S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select financial index; this was presented to 670 students from the cities of Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia), and Lima (Peru). Data was collected and presented through an instrument that asked participants to make a forecast judgment of the said financial index, based on the presented graphics, representing a year, a month, a week, and the last closing value of the index. Thus, it was possible to measure the influence of the anchor and adjustment heuristic in order to establish whether the presence of an initial value affected the financial forecast. Similarly, the study sought to determine whether the judgment issued was biased toward an optimistic or pessimistic position, thereby proving the presence of an error or expectation bias, known as optimism bias. The results were analyzed using the least squares method, and the data panel confirmed that the anchoring and adjustment heuristic influences the forecast of the financial index used in the study. Similarly, the presence of optimism bias in the cognitive process of forecasting in finance was inferred.application/pdftext/htmltext/xml10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.102011-76632248-6046https://hdl.handle.net/10983/29420https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10engUniversidad Católica de Colombiahttps://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/2920/3078https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/2920/3111https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/2920/3489Núm. 2 , Año 2019409238911Revista Finanzas y Política EconómicaAguiar, F. (2004). Teoría de la decisión e incertidumbre: modelos normativos y descriptivos. Empiria: Revista de Metodología de Ciencias Sociales, (8), 139-160. https://doi.org//10.5944/empiria.8.2004.982Amir, E., & Ganzach, Y. (1998). Overreaction and underreaction in analysts' forecasts. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 37(3), 333-347. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1024.5590&rep=rep1&type=pdfAriely, D., Loewenstein, G., & Prelec, D. (2003). «Coherent Arbitrariness*: Stable Demand Curves Without Stable Preferences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 73-106. https://doi.org/10.1162/00335530360535153Armor, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (2002). When predictions fail: The dilemma of unrealistic optimism. In Gilovich, T, Griffin, D. W., & Kahneman, D. (eds.). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment. (pp. 334-347). New York: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org//10.1017/CBO9780511808098.021Barber, B. M., & Odean, T (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, JJ6(1), 261-292. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.139415Barberis, N., & Thaler, R. (2003). A survey of behavioral finance. Handbook of the Economic of Finance, 1052-1121. http://houdekpetr.cz/!data/public_html/papers/economics_psychology/Barberis%20Thaler%202003.pdfBen-David, I., & Hirshleifer, D. (2012). Are investors really reluctant to realize their losses? Trading responses to past returns and the disposition effect. Review of Financial Studies. 25(8), 2485-2532. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhs077Blankenship, K. L., Wegener, D. T, Petty, R. E., Detweiler-Bedell, B., & Macy, C. L. (2008). Elaboration and consequences of anchored estimates: An attitudinal perspective on numerical anchoring. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 44(6), 1465-1476. https://doi.org/10.10Wj.jesp.2008.07.005Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the «planning fallacy»: Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366-381. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.366Cadet, B., & Chasseigne, G. (2009). Psychologie du jugement et de la decision: Des modèles aux applications. (A. Editore, Ed.) (1st ed). Paris: De Boeck Universite.Campbell, S. D., & Sharpe, S. A. (2009). Anchoring bias in consensus forecasts and its effect on market prices. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 44(2), 369-390. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109009090127Caputo, A. (2014). Relevant information, personality traits and anchoring effect. International Journal of Management and Decision Making, 13(1), 62-76. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijmdm.2014.058470Cen, L., Hilary, G., & Wei, K. C. J. (2013). The role of anchoring bias in the equity market: Evidence from analysts' earnings forecasts and stock returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 48(1), 47-76. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002210901200060Chambers, J. R., & Windschitl, P. D. (2004). Biases in Social Comparative Judgments: The Role of Nonmotivated Factors in Above-Average and Comparative-Optimism Effects. Psychological Bulletin, 130(5), 813-838. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.130.5.813Chang, E. C., Lin, T C., Luo, Y., & Ren, J. (2019). Ex-day returns of stock distributions: An anchoring explanation. Management Science. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2843Chapman, G. B., & Johnson, E. J. (1999). Anchoring, activation, and the construction of values. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79(2), 115-153. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1999.2841Chapman, G. B., & Johnson, E. J. (2002). Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value. In Gilovich, T., Griffin, D. W., & Kahneman, D. (eds.). Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (pp. 120-138). New York: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808098.008Cowles, A., & Jones, H. E. (1937). Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action. Econometrica, 5(3), 280-294. https://doi.org/10.2307/1905515Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D., & Teoh, S. H. (2002). Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implication. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(1), 139-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(01)0001-5De Bondt, W. F. M., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05004.xDuclos, R. (2014). The psychology of investment "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcps.2014.11.005">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcps.2014.11.005Ductor, L., & Leiva-Leon, D. (2016). Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence. Journal of International Economics, 102, 110-127. https://doi.org/10.1016Zj.jinteco.2016.07.003Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1981). Behavioral Decision Theory: Processed ofJudgment and Choice. Annual Review of Psychology, 32, 53-88. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ps.32.020181.000413Englich, B., & Soder, K. (2009). Moody experts—How mood and expertise influence judgmental anchoring. Judgment and Decision Making, 4(1), 41-50. https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2009-02933-004Epley, N., & Gilovich, T (2001). Putting adjustment back in the anchoring and adjustment heuristic: Differential Processing of Self-Generated and Experimenter-Provided Anchors. Psychological Science, 12(5), 391-396. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9280.00372Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2006). The Anchoring-and- Adjustment Heuristic Why the Adjustments. Psychological Science, 17(4), 311-318. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01704.xFama, E. (1997). Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns, and Behavioral Finance. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 283-306. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0187/0cadeddf6c98ece3b878ce168c86636a5c4b.pdfFama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486Festinger, L. (1957). A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Stanford University Press.Fisher, K. L., & Statman, M. (2000). Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 27(1), 72-81. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2000.319785Forbes, W., Hudson, R., Skerratt, L., & Soufian, M. (2015). Which heuristics can aid financial-decision-making? International Review of Financial Analysis, 42, 199-210.Galinsky, A. D., & Mussweiler, T. (2001). First offers as anchors: The role of perspective-taking and negotiator focus. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 81(4), 657-669. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.81.4.657George, T J., & Hwang, C. Y. (2004). The 52-week high and momentum investing. Journal of Finance, 59(5), 2145-2176. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00695.xGigerenzer, G., & Gaissmaier, W. (2011). Heuristic decision making. Annual Review of Psychology, 62 (1), 451-482. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-120709-145346Giordani, P, & Sõderlind, P (2006). Is there evidence of pessimism and doubt in subjective distributions? Implications for the equity premium puzzle. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 30(6), 1027-1043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2005.05.001Griffin, D., & Tversky, A. (1992). The weighing of evidence and the determinats of confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 24, 411-435. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(92)90013-RHastie, R., & Dawes, R. M. (2010). Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making. SAGE Publications.Helweg-Larsen, M., & Shepperd, J. A. (2001). Do Moderators of the Optimistic Bias Affect Personal or Target Risk Estimates? A Review of the Literature. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 5(1), 74-95. https://doi.org/10.1207/S15327957PSPR0501_5Hilary, G., & Hsu, C. (2011). Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 51 (3), 300-313. https://doi.org/10.10Wj.jacceco.2011.01.002Hirshleifer, D. (2015). Behavioral Finance. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 7(1), 133-159. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-092214-043752Hysenbelli, D., Rubaltelli, E., & Rumiati, R. (2013). Others' opinions count, but not all of them: anchoring to ingroup versus outgroup members' behavior in charitable giving. Judgment and Decision Making, 8(6), 678-690. http://journal.sjdm.org/12/121219/jdm121219.pdfJefferson, A., Bortolotti, L., & Kuzmanovic, B. (2017). What is unrealistic optimism? Consciousness and Cognition, 50, 3-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/jxoncog.2016.10.005Kahneman, D. (2003). Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics. American Economic Review, 93(5), 1449-1475. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803322655392Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L., & Thaler, R. H. (1991). Anomalies: The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 193-206. http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/jep.5.1.193.Kahneman, D., & Riepe, M. W. (1998). Aspects of Investor Psychology. The Journal of Porfolio Management, 24(4), 52-65. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1998.409643Kahneman, D., Slovic, IP, & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press.Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80(4), 237-251. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0034747Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185Kaustia, M., Alho, E., & Puttonen, V. (2008). How Much Does Expertise Reduce Behavioral Biases? The Case of Anchoring Effects in Stock Return Estimates. Financial Management, 37(3), 391-412. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-053X.2008.00018.xKendall, M. G., & Hill, A. B. (1953). The analysis of economic time-series-Part I: Prices. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 116(1), 11. https://doi.org/10.2307/2980947Kinari, Y. (2016). Properties of expectation biases: Optimism and overconfidence. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 10(1), 32-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2016.02.003Krch, D. (2011). Cognitive Processing. In J. S. Kreutzer, J. DeLuca, & B. Caplan (eds.). Encyclopedia of Clinical Neuropsychology. (p. 627). New York, NY: Springer New York.Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(2), 311-328. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.32.2.311Levin, I. P, Schneider, S. L., & Gaeth, G. J. (1998). All Frames Are Not Created Equal: A Typology and Critical Analysis of Framing Effects. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 76(2), 149-188. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1998.2804Liao, L.-C., Chou, R. Y., & Chiu, B. (2013). Anchoring effect on foreign institutional investors' momentum trading https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2013.07.001Locke, J. (1796). An Essay Concerning Human Understanding. The Philosophical Review. 3(5), 601-605. https://openpublishing.psu.edu/locke/bib/ch0e.htmlLovallo, D., & Kahneman, D. (2003). Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives' Decisions. Harvard Business Review. 81 (7), 56-63, 117. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12858711Lucas, R. E. J. (1978). Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy. Econometrica, 46(6), 1429-1445. http://www.its.caltech.edu/~pbs/expfinance/Readings/Lucas1978.pdfLucey, M. E., & O'Connor, F. A. (2016). Mind the gap: Psychological barriers in gold and silver prices. Finance Research Letters, 17, 135-140. https://doi.org/10.1016/jfrl.2016.03.009March, J. G. (1978). Bounded Rationality, Ambiguity, and the Engineering of Choice. The Bell Journal of Economics, 9(2), 587. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3003600Marsden, A., Veeraraghavan, M., & Ye, M. (2008). Heuristics of Representativeness, Anchoring and Adjustment, and Leniency: Impact on Earnings' Forecasts by Australian Analysts. Quarterly Journal of Finance & Accounting, 47(2), 83-102. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.996514McElroy, T., & Dowd, K. (2007). Susceptibility to anchoring effects: How openness-to-experience influences responses to anchoring cues. Judgment and Decision Making, 2(1), 48-53. http://journal.sjdm.org/jdm06143.pdfMintzberg, H., Raisinghani, D., & Theoret, A. (1976). The Structure of «Unstructured» Decision Processes. Administrative Science Quarterly, 21 (2), 246. https://doi.org/10.2307/2392045Montier, J. (2013). Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons.Mullainathan, S., & Thaler, R. (2000). Behavioral Economics. the National Bureau of Economic Research (Vol. 3). Cambridge, MA. https://doi.org/10.3386/w7948Mussweiler, T, Strack, F., & Pfeiffer, T (2000). Overcoming the Inevitable Anchoring Effect: Considering the Opposite Compensates for Selective Accessibility. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 26(9), 1142-1150. https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672002611010Newell, B. R., & Brõder, A. (2008). Cognitive processes, models and metaphors in decision research. Judgment and Decision Making, 3 (3), 195-204. http://journal.sjdm.org/bn1.pdfNorthcraft, G. B., & Neale, M. A. (1987). Experts, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring-and-adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39(1), 84-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(87)90046-XOdean, T (1998). Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? The Journal of Finance, 53(5), 1775-1798. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00072Pachur, T, & Brõder, A. (2013). Judgment: a cognitive processing perspective. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science, 4(6), 665-681. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcs.1259Plous, S. (1989). Thinking the Unthinkable: The Effects of Anchoring on Likelihood Estimates of Nuclear War. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 19(1), 67-91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.1989.tb01221.xPompian, M. M. (2012). Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management: How to Build Optimal Portfolios That Account for Investor Biases (2.a ed.). Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons.Puri, M., & Robinson, D. (2007). Optimism and economic choice. Journal of Financial Economics, 86(1), 71-99. https://doi.org/10.10Wj.jfineco.2006.09.003Rau, R. (2011). Market Inefficiency. In Baker, H. K., & Nofsinger, J. R. (eds.). Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets (pp. 331-349). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.Ricciardi, V. (2008). The Psychology of Risk: The Behavioral Finance Perspective. In Fabozzi, F. J. (ed.). The Handbook of Finance. Vol. 2. Investment Management and Financial Management. (pp. 85-111). London: John Wiley & Sons.Ricciardi, V., & Simon, H. K. (2000). What is Behavioral Finance? Business, Education & Technology Journal, 2(2), 1-9. https://ssrn.com/abstract=256754Ritter, J. R. (2003). Behavioral finance. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 11 (4), 429-437. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-538X(03)00048-9S&P Global. (2019). S&P MILA Indices Methodology. https://us.spindices.com/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-mila-indices.pdf?force_download=trueSamuelson, W., & Zeckhauser, R. (1988). Status quo bias in decision making. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1 (1), 7-59. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00055564Schwert, G. W. (2003). Anomalies and Market Efficiency. Handbook of the Economics of Finance, 1, 939-974. http://schwert.ssb.rochester.edu/hbfech15.pdfSharot, T (2011). The optimism bias. Current Biology, 21(23), R941-R945. https://doi.org/10.10Wj.cub.2011.10.030Sharot, T, Riccardi, A. M., Raio, C. M., & Phelps, E. A. (2007). Neural mechanisms mediating optimism bias. Nature, 450(November), 102-105. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17960136Shefrin, H., & Statman, M. (2000). Behavioral Portfolio Theory. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 35(2), 127. https://doi.org/10.2307/2676187Shepperd, J. A., Carroll, P, Grace, J., & Terry, M. (2002). Exploring the Causes of Comparative Optimism. Psychologica Belgica, 42, 65-98. https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2002-06881-007Shiller, R. J. (2003). From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance The 1980s and Excess Volatility. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 83-104. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533003321164967Shin, H., & Park, S. (2018). Do foreign investors mitigate anchoring bias in stock market? Evidence based on post-earnings announcement drift. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 48 (December 2016), 224-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2018.02.008Simon, H. A. (1955). A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(1), 99. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884852Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of man; social and rational. Operations Research (Vol. 5). Oxford, England: Wiley.Simon, H. A. (1972). Theories of Bounded Rationality. In Decision and Organization: A volume in honor of Jacob Marschak (pp. 161-176). North-Holland Publishing Company.Slovic, P, & Lichtenstein, S. (1971). Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 6(6), 649-744. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(71)90033-XSlovic, Paul. (1972). Psychological Study of Human Judgment: Implications for Investment Decision Making. Journal of Finance, 27(4), 779-799. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1972.tb01311.xStanêk, R. (2017). Home bias in sport betting : Evidence from Czech betting market. Judgment and Decision Making, 12(2), 168-172. http://journal.sjdm.org/16/16824/jdm16824.html7Thaler, R. (1980). Toward a positive theory of consumer choice. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 1 (1), 39-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(80)90051-7Thaler, R., & Sunstein, C. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness (revised). Penguin UK.Thompson, S. C., Armstrong, W., & Thomas, C. (1998). Illusions of Control, Underestimations, and Accuracy: A Control Heuristic Explanation. Psychological Bulletin, 123(2), 143-161. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.123.2.143Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211 (4481), 453-458. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.7455683Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty. Journal of Risk & Uncertainty, 5(4), 297-323. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00122574Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton University Press.Wansink, B., Kent, R. J., & Hoch, S. J. (1998). An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Purchase Quantity Decisions. Journal of Marketing Research, 35(1), 71. https://doi.org/10.2307/3151931Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), 806-820. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806Westerhoff, F. (2003). Anchoring and Psychological Barriers in Foreign Exchange Markets. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 4(2), 65-70. https://doi.org/10.1207/S15427579JPFM0402_03Wilke, A., & Mata, R. (2012). Cognitive Bias. In Encyclopedia of human behavior (pp. 531-535). London: Academic Press.Working, H. (1934). A Random-Difference Series for Use in the Analysis of Time Series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 29(185), 11-24. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1934.10502683Victor Alberto Peña, Alina Gómez Mejía - 2019info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/2920Financial forecastOptimism biasAnchor and adjustment heuristicJudgmentBehavioral financeFinanzas conductualesHeurística de anclaje y ajusteJuicioPronóstico financieroSesgo de optimismoFinanças comportamentaisHeurística da ancoragem e do ajustamentoJulgamentoPrognóstico financeiroViés de otimismoEfecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.Effect of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in stock market forecasts.Artículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleJournal articlehttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARTinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPublicationOREORE.xmltext/xml2667https://repository.ucatolica.edu.co/bitstreams/bf11ddd9-8d2b-4e5d-8c87-1e417b9ff497/download912bb8af050c4f462da76ec32780a83cMD5110983/29420oai:repository.ucatolica.edu.co:10983/294202023-03-24 17:52:22.156https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Victor Alberto Peña, Alina Gómez Mejía - 2019https://repository.ucatolica.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad Católica de Colombia - RIUCaCbdigital@metabiblioteca.com

Publicaciones similares