Diagnóstico y diseño de un modelo de simulación de trasporte para la ruta UAN Villavicencio

This work performs a design of simulated routes in the Monte Carlo method recognizing the demand distribution and the cumulative probability distribution of the demand, tabulating this information and is represented by means of a network diagram taking into account the times and distances for the provision of service of the Academic Route at the Antonio Nariño University in each semester, through calculations in the arrival times assigned by the area of University Welfare, The current route is a circuit starting from the center of the city of Villavicencio to the Antonio Nariño University and for the return of the service users it starts from the Antonio Nariño University to the center of the city of Villavicencio. The different scenarios that were proposed were compared to keep in mind the different access routes and alternatives during the routes, obtaining a performance in the coverage of new communes in the city of Villavicencio determined by time and distance, to know the route of less time and distance or more time and distance Solver was used, proposing for each case, an objective function, variables such as the number of students who use this route, the location within the different areas of the city of Villavicencio and the time set per route obtaining restrictions were determined. In the first phase of development, data collection for the semester 2022 - 1 is carried out to recognize the number of users providing the service according to each schedule, specifically in the routes of arrival at the University, where the schedule of greater and lesser flow is identified, it is observed that the frequency generates a random dispersion, proving that the capacity of the current route is 25 users according to the information collected, meeting the demand. In the second phase, the statistical variables that intervene in the logistic operation of the University Route are identified, such as the established schedules, the number of users per route from the IX communities, taking into account the time and distance of the route to the university. In the third phase, a design simulation was developed by means of the Monte Carlo method, obtaining the annual random behavior of the demand, then the mathematical model was developed, where the objective function, restrictions and variables are taken into account, thus representing the different VRP scenarios in the network diagrams, locating nodes in different communities and arcs determined by time and distance, in which Solver is applied, carrying out an analysis to find the value (minimum or maximum). Keywords: Model, Monte Carlo Simulation, Demand, Optimization, Restrictions, Varing, Ability, Probability, Alternatives.

• Autores: Cubides Díaz, Jeisson Stiven; Rincón Pérez, Miguel Ángel
• Tipo de recurso: Trabajo de grado de pregrado
• Fecha de publicación: 2023
• Institución: Universidad Antonio Nariño
• Repositorio: Repositorio UAN
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.uan.edu.co:123456789/8645
• Acceso en línea: http://repositorio.uan.edu.co/handle/123456789/8645
• Palabra clave: Simulación de Montecarlo; Optimización; Restricciones; Capacidad; T41.22 C962d; Monte Carlo Simulation; Optimization; constraints; Capacity
• Rights: openAccess
• License: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)