Formulación de funciones de costo de incertidumbre en pequeñas centrales hidroeléctricas dentro de una microgrid

. The current paper proposes to extend the concept of cost of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems containing renewable sources (like solar and wind) to power systems with penetration of small hydroelectric plants (PCHs). The proposed extension is obtained using the distribution probability of the flow where the PCH is. In order to do this, the analytical development of the uncertainty costs in small hydropower plants is presented, obtaining the probability of power injected by the plant and developing the mathematical formulation of the costs due to underestimate and overestimate the available power. Additionally, the validation of the analytical formulation is presented through Monte Carlo simulations, showing that in the two cases (cost of uncertainty with the analytical formula and expected value of the Monte Carlo simulation) the same uncertainty cost is reached. Finally, we present the codes in order to calculate the expected cost through the analytical formulation obtained and the expected cost through the average cost of the Monte Carlo simulation.

• Autores: Molina Sanchez, Ferney Sadid; Pérez Sichacá, Sergio Jair; Rivera Rodriguez, Sergio Raul
• Fecha de publicación: 2017
• Institución: Universidad de San Buenaventura
• Repositorio: Repositorio USB
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:bibliotecadigital.usb.edu.co:10819/6727
• Acceso en línea: http://hdl.handle.net/10819/6727
• Palabra clave: Incertidumbre; Microgrids; Monte Carlo; Pequeñas Centrales Hidroeléctricas; Distribución de energía eléctrica
• License: Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombia