Combination forecasting method using Bayesian models and a metaheuristic, case study

Planning of demand forecasting for perishable products is important for any type of industry that manufactures or distributes, especially if it has a seasonal behavior and a difficult to predict variability. This paper proposes a metaheuristic based on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) for the combinati...

Full description

Autores:
Higuita Alzate, David
Valencia Cárdenas, Marisol
Correa Morales, Juan Carlos
Tipo de recurso:
Article of investigation
Fecha de publicación:
2018
Institución:
Tecnológico de Antioquia
Repositorio:
Repositorio Tdea
Idioma:
spa
OAI Identifier:
oai:dspace.tdea.edu.co:tdea/2843
Acceso en línea:
https://dspace.tdea.edu.co/handle/tdea/2843
Palabra clave:
Forecasts
Productos perecederos
Perishable products
Produto perecível
Produit périssable
Statistics and probability
Estadística y probabilidad
Pronósticos
Optimization theory
Teoría de optimización
Bayesian statistics
Estadística Bayesiana
Rights
openAccess
License
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Description
Summary:Planning of demand forecasting for perishable products is important for any type of industry that manufactures or distributes, especially if it has a seasonal behavior and a difficult to predict variability. This paper proposes a metaheuristic based on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) for the combination of forecasts of multiple products, based on three models: Mixed Linear Model (MLM), Bayesian Regression Model with Innovation (BRM) and Dynamic Linear Bayesian Model (BDLM), which are part of the proposed combination whose process is based on minimizing the Mean of Absolute percentage Error (SMAPE) indicator. It is found that the BDLM and BRM methodologies obtain good results on an individual basis, being better BRM, however, the ACO algorithm designed yields a better result, facilitating an adequate prediction of the demand of several products of a company in the meat buffer sector. Keywords: statistics and probability; forecasts; optimization theory; Bayesian statistics.