Time lag efect on malaria transmission dynamics in anAmazonian Colombian municipality and importance for early warning systems
Malaria remains a significant public health problem worldwide, particularly in low-income regions with limited access to healthcare. Despite the use of antimalarial drugs, transmission remains an issue in Colombia, especially among indigenous populations in remote areas. In this study, we used an SI...
- Autores:
-
González Daza, William
Vivero Gómez, Rafael José
Altamiranda Saavedra, Mariano Augusto
Muylaert, Renata L.
Lemes Landeiro, Víctor
- Tipo de recurso:
- Article of investigation
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2023
- Institución:
- Tecnológico de Antioquia
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio Tdea
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:dspace.tdea.edu.co:tdea/4038
- Acceso en línea:
- https://dspace.tdea.edu.co/handle/tdea/4038
- Palabra clave:
- Factores climáticos
Facteur climatique
Climatic factors
Malaria
Paludisme
Public health
Salud pública
Saúde pública
Santé publique
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
| Summary: | Malaria remains a significant public health problem worldwide, particularly in low-income regions with limited access to healthcare. Despite the use of antimalarial drugs, transmission remains an issue in Colombia, especially among indigenous populations in remote areas. In this study, we used an SIR Ross MacDonald model that considered land use change, temperature, and precipitation to analyze eco epidemiological parameters and the impact of time lags on malaria transmission in La Pedrera—Amazonas municipality. We found changes in land use between 2007 and 2020, with increases in forested areas, urban infrastructure and water edges resulting in a constant increase in mosquito carrying capacity. Temperature and precipitation variables exhibited a fluctuating pattern that corresponded to rainy and dry seasons, respectively and a marked influence of the El Niño climatic phenomenon. Our findings suggest that elevated precipitation and temperature increase malaria infection risk in the following 2 months. The risk is influenced by the secondary vegetation and urban infrastructure near primary forest formation or water body edges. These results may help public health officials and policymakers develop effective malaria control strategies by monitoring precipitation, temperature, and land use variables to flag high-risk areas and critical periods, considering the time lag effect. |
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