Inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting

An important factor of manufacturing process is the inventory management of terminated product. Constantly, industry is looking for better alternatives to establish an adequate plan of production and stored quantities, with optimal cost, getting quantities in a time horizon, which permits to define resources and logistics with anticipation, needed to distribute products on time. Total absence of historical data, required by many statistical models to forecast, demands the search for other kind of accurate techniques. This work presents an alternative that not only permits to forecast, in an adjusted way, but also, to provide optimal quantities to produce and store with an optimal cost, using Bayesian statistics. The proposal is illustrated with real data. Palabras clave: estadística bayesiana, optimización, modelo de inventarios, modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano. Keywords: Bayesian statistics, opti

• Tipo de recurso: http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6766
• Fecha de publicación: 2014
• Institución: Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia
• Repositorio: RiUPTC: Repositorio Institucional UPTC
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.uptc.edu.co:001/12236
• Acceso en línea: https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/ingenieria_sogamoso/article/view/3937; https://repositorio.uptc.edu.co/handle/001/12236
• Palabra clave: bayesian statistics; optimization; inventory models; dynamic linear model.; estadística bayesiana; optimización; modelo de inventarios; modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano
• License: Derechos de autor 2015 Ingeniería Investigación y Desarrollo